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Latam | Economic Analysis

See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.

Macro Latam

  • COLOMBIA – CAD narrowed significantly in 3Q23

    Financing of the CAD is favorable.

  • CHILE – Non-mining activity improves in October

    As interest rates and inflation fall, the economy is expected to gradually recover.

  • CHILE – Public Finance: Expenditures increased

    MoF’s annual fiscal target seems challenging.

  • Latam Talking Points

    This report is released every morning and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.

  • Latam Talking Points Evening Edition

    This report is released every evening and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.

  • COLOMBIA – Unemployment surprises to the downside

    The unemployment continued to fall in October.

  • CHILE – Better-than-expected activity indicators

    We expect a mild recovery ahead as interest rates and inflation fall.

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate rose sequentially

    The gradual deterioration of the labor market should continue in the near term.

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed further

    A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.

  • MEXICO – Solid GDP in 3Q23

    Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

    All Board members seem open to discuss rate cuts early next year.

  • MEXICO – 1H November Inflation was broadly

    Services inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace.

  • ARGENTINA – Sequential activity rebounded in 3Q23

    We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in October

    Our primary fiscal deficit projection for this year stands at 3.5% of GDP.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales momentum softened in 3Q23

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%.

  • CHILE – Another upside GDP surprise in 3Q23

    The annual drag from private consumption continues to ease.

  • CHILE – CAD narrows by 1.2pp to 3.5% of GDP

    Favorable FDI dynamics consolidate a more sustainable financing mix.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 3Q23

    Weak imports points to further domestic demand softening ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity weakens in 3Q23

    Falling imports signal further consumption weakening ahead.

  • PERU – Activity surprised in September

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak activity in 3Q23

    Overall dynamics remained weak as tight monetary policy persists.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    The BCCh insists it does not target the level of the CLP.

  • ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation eased in October

    We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remains positive

    Construction weakened in September.

  • PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

    Rate cuts will likely continue.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a dovish pause

    We kept our call of the central bank beginning their easing cycle in May 2024

Scenario Review Mexico

  • Easing cycle delayed further

    We now expect the easing cycle to begin in May.

  • High rates for longer

    Rate cuts postponed until next year.

  • Delaying the beginning of the easing cycle

    We now expect the first rate cut to take place in December.

  • 2023 GDP forecast revised even higher

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • Surprisingly resilient activity

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.7% (previously at 2.4%).

  • Rate cuts during 4Q23

    We now expect an end of year policy rate of 10.75%.

  • Additional rate hikes unlikely

    Policy rate likely to remain unchanged throughout the year at 11.25%

  • Hiking cycle is likely to end soon

    We expect one last 25-bp rate hike.

  • Another battle in the supreme court

    Better outlook this year, but worse the next.

  • More hikes to come

    Concerns on core inflation outlook increased.

  • More limits on the government’s agenda

    End of the hiking cycle is near.

  • Slowing the hiking pace

    About to end the tightening cycle?

  • Resilient activity, so far

    Higher rates ahead.

  • Weaker global outlook to weigh on activity

    We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% for next year.

  • Following the Fed in the short term

    We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.

  • Trouble in the neighborhood

    We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.

  • Keeping the pace despite weaker outlook

    We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (previously at 1.8%).

  • Banxico about to get more aggressive

    We now forecast a policy rate of 9.25% for YE22.

Scenario Review Chile

  • A more gradual easing cycle

    Tighter global financial conditions have resulted in a slower easing cycle.

  • A more challenging external backdrop

    Raising the short end of the curve.

  • A more cautious cycle

    Pass-through pressures pose upside risks to the disinflation process.

  • A swifter easing cycle

    Real rates remain high despite cut.

  • Let the easing cycle begin

    We expect a 50-bp rate cut in July, but risks tilt to a larger adjustment.

  • Rate cuts about to start?

    We expect the June IPoM to open the door to a rate cut cycle.

  • In data-dependent mode

    We still expect the beginning of the easing cycle to occur in July

  • Postponing the awaited easing cycle

    Rate cuts now likely only in 3Q23.

  • A more gradual easing cycle ahead

    Caution rules for the Central Bank.

  • Not there yet

    Risks of cutting prematurely persist.

  • A year to correct imbalances

    Rates to remain unchanged in the near term.

  • Rate cuts unlikely to come soon

    A gradual activity correction underway.

  • A cycle ends, another one is not about to begin

    A gradual activity slowdown is underway.

  • Facing a tougher external environment

    A deterioration in global financial conditions would require a tighter monetary policy response.

  • More-moderate policies ahead

    Barring significant deviations from the updated central bank’s baseline scenario, the tightening cycle has likely ended.

  • End of tightening cycle postponed

    Plebiscite in sight, yet constitutional process is likely to continue.

  • A More Challenging Outlook

    A sharp exchange rate weakening, but global drivers keeps the central bank at bay.

  • Higher growth and inflation

    We expect a policy rate peak of 10%, before a rate-cut cycle is initiated during 2023.

  • Inflation peak postponed

    Inflation and rates revised higher.

Scenario Review Colombia

  • Easing cycle postponed

    High inflation and tight global financial conditions lead to higher scenario for rates.

  • Sticky inflation lowers October rate cut odds

    Sticky inflation leads to slower easing cycle.

  • Pressure to cut rates increases

    We still see rate cuts starting October but with a smaller 25bp adjustment.

  • Easing cycle penciled in for 4Q23

    Stronger COP supports lower inflation and earlier rate cuts.

  • In observation mode

    A challenging fiscal consolidation path.

  • Governability challenges increase

    With elevated inflation, rate cuts are not expected this year.

  • Political uncertainty and inflation constrain MP

    The tightening cycle likely ended

  • Signaling the end of the cycle

    Inflation and rates to stay high.

  • Uncertainty likely to remain high

    The hiking cycle is nearing its end.

  • Still waiting for an inflation peak

    Keeping rates high for longer.

  • Tightening cycle to continue

    Elevated inflationary pressures to lead to further tightening.

  • Revising activity and inflation upward

    Tightening cycle likely to conclude early next year, but rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.

  • Higher rates amid market rout

    Conflicting policy signals raised domestic financial market volatility.

  • Lower-than-expected hike, but further tightening

    Economic imbalances and global strengthening of USD would weigh on COP.

  • Rates going even higher

    Fiscal accounts to be stressed further.

  • Targeting additional revenue

    Rates going higher.

  • Petro elected president, broadens coalition

    Challenging task of keeping fiscal accounts in check while advocating for an ambitious social spending program.

  • The presidency takes a turn to the unknown

    With uptrending core inflation, robust economic activity and a widening of external imbalances.

  • Higher growth forecasts as presidential election

    Growth revised higher, while inflation pressures persist.

  • Left wing gains ground in a divided Congress

    Despite rising inflationary pressures, the Central Bank is unwilling to accelerate the pace of monetary policy tightening.

Scenario Review Argentina

  • Runoff approaches as adjustment countdown ticks

    All eyes on the November 19 runoff.

  • Macro imbalances increase as elections loom

    Libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei leads voting intentions for October.

  • A rude awakening

    Polls show that Milei’s momentum has increased since the primaries.

  • A fragile economy heads into elections

    The PASO primaries on August 13 will determine the presidential candidates, reveal the voting preferences for each coalition.

  • Macro fragility persists with elections

    Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 has led us to expect a smaller contraction this year of 3% (previously - 4%). In a context of high volatility, we cut our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

  • Lower reserves and less time

    We now expect a meaningful real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

  • A peso under siege

    The depletion of international reserves led to an increase in devaluation expectations for the official exchange rate.

  • An even more fragile economy

    We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast again, to -4.0% from -3.0%.

  • Drought to take a toll on activity

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2023 down to -3% from -1.5%.

  • No inflation respite

    We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year.

  • The year has gone, but the challenges remain

    The country needs to address many macro imbalances to improve growth prospects.

  • Extending the multiple exchange rates regime

    In any case, the pressure on international reserves will remain.

  • Reserves resume a declining trend

    The government launched a new battery of controls to preserve the level of international reserves.

  • Decision time for spring

    The increase of international reserves is a positive step, but we note that the balance of payments remains unsustainable.

  • Lights and shadows

    The government announced a temporary weaker exchange rate for soy producers, in order to increase international reserves.

  • The great hope?

    Sergio Massa, former president of the lower chamber and a key politician of the ruling Frente de Todos.

  • New turmoil

    We see increased risks of lower activity and higher inflation as internal political tensions.

  • Will you miss me?

    Argentina risks missing the targets agreed to with the IMF.

  • Hard to Adjust

    Inflation and inflation expectations deteriorated markedly in the face of growing political tensions amid the ruling coaliti.

  • Jumping through hurdles

    We maintain our base scenario of high inflation and modest growth.

Scenario Review Peru

  • Soft activity rebound

    We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.2%.

  • No respite for activity

    We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% this year.

  • Softer activity rebound in 2024

    El niño curbs activity rebound in 2024.

  • Earlier easing

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • El Niño increases downside risks to activity

    Below-potential growth

  • Supply shocks curb activity outlook

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast is now at 1.4%.

  • Another year of weak growth

    Harsh weather and social unrest curb activity.

  • Harsh weather is yet another economic headwind

    Confrontation continues amid political deadlock.

  • Early elections is still likely

    Congress fails to agree on moving elections forward.

  • Political gridlock

    Congress rejected several proposals to bring forward general elections.

  • Early elections likely

    Solid macro fundamentals help to mitigate uncertainty from political turmoil.

  • Another president bites the dust

    Political turmoil persist.

  • Executive power is still under siege

    Another presidential vacancy attempt.

  • Below potential growth

    A weaker global outlook , lower terms of trade and persistent political uncertainty are headwinds for activity.

  • Solid fiscal accounts mitigate uncertainty

    Optimistic MoF’s GDP growth assumptions are a downside risk to fiscal accounts.

  • More political volatility

    Our inflation forecast is now at 7.5%.

  • Lower copper prices are setback for the economy

    Political turmoil persists.

  • GDP outlook deteriorates

    We lowered our GDP growth forecast to 3.0% (from 3.5% in our previous scenario).

  • Uncertainty heightens

    Castillo intends to establish a constituent assembly.

  • Ongoing political turmoil

    Castillo survived a second ousting attempt from Congress amid social unrest.

Macro Scenario Latam

  • Uruguay | November, 2023

    We still expect just one more rate cut at the upcoming meeting, leading to a terminal rate of 9.25%.

  • Paraguay | November, 2023

    Rate cuts to end earlier than expected.

  • Uruguay | October, 2023

    We foresee one more rate cut this year.

  • Paraguay | October, 2023

    We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 5.6%.

  • Paraguay | September, 2023

    Lower rates ahead.

  • Uruguay | August, 2023

    We expect lower inflation and rates this year.

  • Paraguay | August, 2023

    Lower inflation leads to sooner easing.

  • Paraguay | July, 2023

    Better activity and inflation outlook for 2023.

  • Uruguay | July, 2023

    Lower inflation opens room for an even lower policy rate.

  • Paraguay | June, 2023

    Challenging fiscal consolidation.

  • Uruguay | June, 2023

    Stronger UYU helps disinflation.

  • Uruguay | May, 2023

    We still see the monetary policy rate at 10.50% by the end of the year.

  • Paraguay | May, 2023

    Santiago Peña won the election and will be the next president for five years.

  • Uruguay | April, 2023

    We now expect the policy rate for end of this year at 10.50% (previously we projected it at 11.00%).

  • Paraguay | April, 2023

    We forecast 4.5% inflation and a monetary policy rate of 7.0% for YE23.

  • Paraguay | March, 2023

    We expect a monetary policy rate of 7.0% by December, with the central bank starting to cut rates in 2H23.

  • Uruguay | March, 2023

    We once again lowered our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.5%, from 2.0% in our previous scenario

  • Paraguay | February, 2023

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 5.0%, but with downside risks coming from a new drought.

  • Uruguay | February, 2023

    We reduced our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% (from 2.5% in our previous scenario) due to the drought.

  • Paraguay | Janurary, 2023

    Paraguay Solid GDP growth in 3Q22 led us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 0.2%, from -0.5% before.

  • Uruguay | January, 2023

    We now forecast the monetary policy rate at 11.00% by the end of 2023, from 11.25% in our previous scenario.

  • Paraguay | December, 2022

    Lower rates ahead.

  • Uruguay | December, 2022

    Now we expect lower rates in 2023.

  • Paraguay | November, 2022

    We expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at the current level (8.50%) by December 2022.

  • Uruguay | November, 2022

    We expect the central bank to implement one last policy rate hike of 50 bps in December, for a total end level of 11.75%.

Macro Vision

  • MEXICO – An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE – A primer on the draft constitutional text

    All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • MEXICO - Evaluating the nearshoring moment

    Higher potential GDP growth is likely if nearshoring materializes.

  • CHILE - Assessing the disinflationary process

    CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA -An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

  • CHILE –An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 23

    MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.

  • CHILE – Assessing the easing cycle ahead

    We use Taylor Rule models to assess the central bank’s reaction function.

  • MEXICO – An early look at 2024 Elections

    Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.

  • MEXICO –Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation

    Rate cuts are unlikely this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trip Notes

    Our views on potential policy changes after this year's elections.

  • Roadmap of Chile’s Constitutional process

    The new process should conclude this year.

  • CHILE: Fiscal policy expansionary stance in 2023

    Transitory improvement of fiscal accounts, as growth headwinds mount.

  • CHILE: Temporary relief in fiscal accounts

    Transitory fiscal relief as headwinds mount.

  • COLOMBIA: A Primer on the Presidential Election

    An election unfolding amid dissatisfaction with the status quo.

  • CHILE: An assessment of fiscal dynamics

    We expect the incoming administration to face pressure to loosen the fiscal consolidation path set out in the 2022 budget.

  • CHILE: A deeper look at the economic program

    The president’s economic team will play a key role in negotiating the breadth, depth and timing of the ambitious structural.

  • What’s next in Chile’s Constitutional Process?

    Chile is in the process of drafting a new Constitutional text.

  • A look at Chile’s upcoming elections

    Polarizing election to keep uncertainty elevated.

  • Challenging fiscal consolidation for Chile in 22

    The fiscal consolidation strategy outlined in Chile’s budget bill for 2022 is ambitious.

  • An overview of Chile’s government dollar sales

    The MoF is likely to auction roughly an additional USD 9 billion during September-December 2021.

Escenario Macro Latam en español

  • Uruguay | Noviembre, 2023

    Seguimos esperando un solo recorte más de tasas en la próxima reunión, lo que llevaría a una tasa terminal del 9,25%.

  • Paraguay | Noviembre, 2023

    Los recortes de tasas finalizarán antes de lo esperado.

  • Colombia | Noviembre, 2023

    La elevada inflación y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales conducen a un escenario de tasas más altas.

  • Chile | Noviembre, 2023

    Endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales provoca una ralentización del ciclo de recortes.

  • Uruguay | Octubre, 2023

    Esperamos un recorte más de tasas este año

  • Paraguay | Octubre, 2023

    Mantenemos nuestra proyección de crecimiento del PIB de 5,6% para 2023.

  • Paraguay | Septiember, 2023

    Tasas más bajas por delante.

  • Uruguay | Septiembre, 2023

    Esperamos menos crecimiento del PIB y menor inflación este año.

  • Chile | Septiembre, 2023

    La economía tendrá una leve contracción este año.

  • Colombia | Septiembre, 2023

    Seguimos viendo recortes de tasa a partir de octubre, pero con un ajuste menor de 25 pbs.

  • Uruguay | Agosto, 2023

    Esperamos menos inflación y tasas más bajas este año.

  • Paraguay | Agosto, 2023

    La menor inflación llevaría a iniciar los cortes de tasas.

  • Colombia | Agosto, 2023

    Un COP más fuerte respalda una inflación más baja y recortes de tasas más tempranos.

  • Chile | Agosto, 2023

    Las tasas reales se mantienen elevadas a pesar del recorte.

  • Paraguay | Julio, 2023

    Mejor perspectiva de actividad e inflación para 2023.

  • Uruguay | Julio, 2023

    Una inflación más baja abre espacio para una tasa de política aún más baja.

  • Colombia | Julio, 2023

    Una desafiante consolidación fiscal.

  • Chile | Julio, 2023

    Esperamos un recorte de 50pb para julio, pero los riesgos apuntan a un ajuste mayor.

  • Paraguay | Junio, 2023

    Consolidación fiscal desafiante

  • Uruguay | Junio, 2023

    Una moneda más fuerte ayuda a la desinflación.

  • Colombia | Junio, 2023

    Elevada inflación no permitirá recortes de tasa este año

  • Chile | Junio, 2023

    Elevada inflación no permitirá recortes de tasa este año.

  • Uruguay | Mayo, 2023

    Todavía esperamos una tasa de interés de 10.50% para fin de 2023.

  • Paraguay | Mayo, 2023

    Santiago ganó las elecciones y será presidente los próximos cinco años.

  • Colombia | Mayo, 2023

    No hay margen de política monetaria para recortes

  • Chile | Mayo, 2023

    Seguimos esperando el inicio del ciclo de recortes en Julio.

  • Uruguay | Abril, 2023

    Ahora esperamos que la tasa de política monetaria para fines de este año se ubique en 10,50% (anteriormente la proyectábamos en 11,00%).

  • Paraguay | Abril, 2023

    Proyectamos una inflación de 4,5% para el cierre del año y la tasa de política monetaria en 7,0%.

  • Colombia | Abril, 2023

    Inflación y tasas permanecerán altas

  • Chile | Abril, 2023

    Ahora recortes de tasa probablemente para el 3T23.

History - Macro Latam