Latam | Economic Analysis
See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.
Macro Latam
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COLOMBIA – CAD narrowed significantly in 3Q23
Financing of the CAD is favorable.
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CHILE – Non-mining activity improves in October
As interest rates and inflation fall, the economy is expected to gradually recover.
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CHILE – Public Finance: Expenditures increased
MoF’s annual fiscal target seems challenging.
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Latam Talking Points
This report is released every morning and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.
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Latam Talking Points Evening Edition
This report is released every evening and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.
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COLOMBIA – Unemployment surprises to the downside
The unemployment continued to fall in October.
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CHILE – Better-than-expected activity indicators
We expect a mild recovery ahead as interest rates and inflation fall.
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CHILE – Unemployment rate rose sequentially
The gradual deterioration of the labor market should continue in the near term.
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MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed further
A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.
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MEXICO – Solid GDP in 3Q23
Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23.
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MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
All Board members seem open to discuss rate cuts early next year.
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MEXICO – 1H November Inflation was broadly
Services inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace.
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ARGENTINA – Sequential activity rebounded in 3Q23
We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23.
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ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in October
Our primary fiscal deficit projection for this year stands at 3.5% of GDP.
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MEXICO – Retail sales momentum softened in 3Q23
Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%.
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CHILE – Another upside GDP surprise in 3Q23
The annual drag from private consumption continues to ease.
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CHILE – CAD narrows by 1.2pp to 3.5% of GDP
Favorable FDI dynamics consolidate a more sustainable financing mix.
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COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 3Q23
Weak imports points to further domestic demand softening ahead.
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COLOMBIA – Activity weakens in 3Q23
Falling imports signal further consumption weakening ahead.
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PERU – Activity surprised in September
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias.
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COLOMBIA – Weak activity in 3Q23
Overall dynamics remained weak as tight monetary policy persists.
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CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The BCCh insists it does not target the level of the CLP.
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ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation eased in October
We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end.
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MEXICO – Industrial production remains positive
Construction weakened in September.
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PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues
Rate cuts will likely continue.
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MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a dovish pause
We kept our call of the central bank beginning their easing cycle in May 2024
Scenario Review Mexico
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Easing cycle delayed further
We now expect the easing cycle to begin in May.
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High rates for longer
Rate cuts postponed until next year.
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Delaying the beginning of the easing cycle
We now expect the first rate cut to take place in December.
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2023 GDP forecast revised even higher
An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.
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Surprisingly resilient activity
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.7% (previously at 2.4%).
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Rate cuts during 4Q23
We now expect an end of year policy rate of 10.75%.
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Additional rate hikes unlikely
Policy rate likely to remain unchanged throughout the year at 11.25%
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Hiking cycle is likely to end soon
We expect one last 25-bp rate hike.
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Another battle in the supreme court
Better outlook this year, but worse the next.
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More hikes to come
Concerns on core inflation outlook increased.
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More limits on the government’s agenda
End of the hiking cycle is near.
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Slowing the hiking pace
About to end the tightening cycle?
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Resilient activity, so far
Higher rates ahead.
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Weaker global outlook to weigh on activity
We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% for next year.
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Following the Fed in the short term
We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.
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Trouble in the neighborhood
We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.
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Keeping the pace despite weaker outlook
We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (previously at 1.8%).
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Banxico about to get more aggressive
We now forecast a policy rate of 9.25% for YE22.
Scenario Review Chile
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A more gradual easing cycle
Tighter global financial conditions have resulted in a slower easing cycle.
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A more challenging external backdrop
Raising the short end of the curve.
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A more cautious cycle
Pass-through pressures pose upside risks to the disinflation process.
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A swifter easing cycle
Real rates remain high despite cut.
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Let the easing cycle begin
We expect a 50-bp rate cut in July, but risks tilt to a larger adjustment.
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Rate cuts about to start?
We expect the June IPoM to open the door to a rate cut cycle.
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In data-dependent mode
We still expect the beginning of the easing cycle to occur in July
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Postponing the awaited easing cycle
Rate cuts now likely only in 3Q23.
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A more gradual easing cycle ahead
Caution rules for the Central Bank.
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Not there yet
Risks of cutting prematurely persist.
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A year to correct imbalances
Rates to remain unchanged in the near term.
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Rate cuts unlikely to come soon
A gradual activity correction underway.
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A cycle ends, another one is not about to begin
A gradual activity slowdown is underway.
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Facing a tougher external environment
A deterioration in global financial conditions would require a tighter monetary policy response.
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More-moderate policies ahead
Barring significant deviations from the updated central bank’s baseline scenario, the tightening cycle has likely ended.
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End of tightening cycle postponed
Plebiscite in sight, yet constitutional process is likely to continue.
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A More Challenging Outlook
A sharp exchange rate weakening, but global drivers keeps the central bank at bay.
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Higher growth and inflation
We expect a policy rate peak of 10%, before a rate-cut cycle is initiated during 2023.
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Inflation peak postponed
Inflation and rates revised higher.
Scenario Review Colombia
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Easing cycle postponed
High inflation and tight global financial conditions lead to higher scenario for rates.
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Sticky inflation lowers October rate cut odds
Sticky inflation leads to slower easing cycle.
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Pressure to cut rates increases
We still see rate cuts starting October but with a smaller 25bp adjustment.
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Easing cycle penciled in for 4Q23
Stronger COP supports lower inflation and earlier rate cuts.
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In observation mode
A challenging fiscal consolidation path.
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Governability challenges increase
With elevated inflation, rate cuts are not expected this year.
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Political uncertainty and inflation constrain MP
The tightening cycle likely ended
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Signaling the end of the cycle
Inflation and rates to stay high.
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Uncertainty likely to remain high
The hiking cycle is nearing its end.
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Still waiting for an inflation peak
Keeping rates high for longer.
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Tightening cycle to continue
Elevated inflationary pressures to lead to further tightening.
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Revising activity and inflation upward
Tightening cycle likely to conclude early next year, but rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.
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Higher rates amid market rout
Conflicting policy signals raised domestic financial market volatility.
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Lower-than-expected hike, but further tightening
Economic imbalances and global strengthening of USD would weigh on COP.
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Rates going even higher
Fiscal accounts to be stressed further.
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Targeting additional revenue
Rates going higher.
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Petro elected president, broadens coalition
Challenging task of keeping fiscal accounts in check while advocating for an ambitious social spending program.
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The presidency takes a turn to the unknown
With uptrending core inflation, robust economic activity and a widening of external imbalances.
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Higher growth forecasts as presidential election
Growth revised higher, while inflation pressures persist.
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Left wing gains ground in a divided Congress
Despite rising inflationary pressures, the Central Bank is unwilling to accelerate the pace of monetary policy tightening.
Scenario Review Argentina
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Runoff approaches as adjustment countdown ticks
All eyes on the November 19 runoff.
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Macro imbalances increase as elections loom
Libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei leads voting intentions for October.
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A rude awakening
Polls show that Milei’s momentum has increased since the primaries.
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A fragile economy heads into elections
The PASO primaries on August 13 will determine the presidential candidates, reveal the voting preferences for each coalition.
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Macro fragility persists with elections
Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 has led us to expect a smaller contraction this year of 3% (previously - 4%). In a context of high volatility, we cut our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.
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Lower reserves and less time
We now expect a meaningful real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.
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A peso under siege
The depletion of international reserves led to an increase in devaluation expectations for the official exchange rate.
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An even more fragile economy
We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast again, to -4.0% from -3.0%.
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Drought to take a toll on activity
We revised our GDP forecast for 2023 down to -3% from -1.5%.
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No inflation respite
We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year.
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The year has gone, but the challenges remain
The country needs to address many macro imbalances to improve growth prospects.
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Extending the multiple exchange rates regime
In any case, the pressure on international reserves will remain.
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Reserves resume a declining trend
The government launched a new battery of controls to preserve the level of international reserves.
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Decision time for spring
The increase of international reserves is a positive step, but we note that the balance of payments remains unsustainable.
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Lights and shadows
The government announced a temporary weaker exchange rate for soy producers, in order to increase international reserves.
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The great hope?
Sergio Massa, former president of the lower chamber and a key politician of the ruling Frente de Todos.
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New turmoil
We see increased risks of lower activity and higher inflation as internal political tensions.
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Will you miss me?
Argentina risks missing the targets agreed to with the IMF.
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Hard to Adjust
Inflation and inflation expectations deteriorated markedly in the face of growing political tensions amid the ruling coaliti.
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Jumping through hurdles
We maintain our base scenario of high inflation and modest growth.
Scenario Review Peru
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Soft activity rebound
We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.2%.
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No respite for activity
We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% this year.
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Softer activity rebound in 2024
El niño curbs activity rebound in 2024.
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Earlier easing
An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.
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El Niño increases downside risks to activity
Below-potential growth
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Supply shocks curb activity outlook
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast is now at 1.4%.
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Another year of weak growth
Harsh weather and social unrest curb activity.
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Harsh weather is yet another economic headwind
Confrontation continues amid political deadlock.
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Early elections is still likely
Congress fails to agree on moving elections forward.
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Political gridlock
Congress rejected several proposals to bring forward general elections.
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Early elections likely
Solid macro fundamentals help to mitigate uncertainty from political turmoil.
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Another president bites the dust
Political turmoil persist.
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Executive power is still under siege
Another presidential vacancy attempt.
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Below potential growth
A weaker global outlook , lower terms of trade and persistent political uncertainty are headwinds for activity.
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Solid fiscal accounts mitigate uncertainty
Optimistic MoF’s GDP growth assumptions are a downside risk to fiscal accounts.
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More political volatility
Our inflation forecast is now at 7.5%.
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Lower copper prices are setback for the economy
Political turmoil persists.
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GDP outlook deteriorates
We lowered our GDP growth forecast to 3.0% (from 3.5% in our previous scenario).
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Uncertainty heightens
Castillo intends to establish a constituent assembly.
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Ongoing political turmoil
Castillo survived a second ousting attempt from Congress amid social unrest.
Macro Scenario Latam
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Uruguay | November, 2023
We still expect just one more rate cut at the upcoming meeting, leading to a terminal rate of 9.25%.
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Paraguay | November, 2023
Rate cuts to end earlier than expected.
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Uruguay | October, 2023
We foresee one more rate cut this year.
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Paraguay | October, 2023
We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 5.6%.
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Paraguay | September, 2023
Lower rates ahead.
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Uruguay | August, 2023
We expect lower inflation and rates this year.
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Paraguay | August, 2023
Lower inflation leads to sooner easing.
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Paraguay | July, 2023
Better activity and inflation outlook for 2023.
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Uruguay | July, 2023
Lower inflation opens room for an even lower policy rate.
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Paraguay | June, 2023
Challenging fiscal consolidation.
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Uruguay | June, 2023
Stronger UYU helps disinflation.
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Uruguay | May, 2023
We still see the monetary policy rate at 10.50% by the end of the year.
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Paraguay | May, 2023
Santiago Peña won the election and will be the next president for five years.
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Uruguay | April, 2023
We now expect the policy rate for end of this year at 10.50% (previously we projected it at 11.00%).
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Paraguay | April, 2023
We forecast 4.5% inflation and a monetary policy rate of 7.0% for YE23.
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Paraguay | March, 2023
We expect a monetary policy rate of 7.0% by December, with the central bank starting to cut rates in 2H23.
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Uruguay | March, 2023
We once again lowered our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.5%, from 2.0% in our previous scenario
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Paraguay | February, 2023
Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 5.0%, but with downside risks coming from a new drought.
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Uruguay | February, 2023
We reduced our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% (from 2.5% in our previous scenario) due to the drought.
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Paraguay | Janurary, 2023
Paraguay Solid GDP growth in 3Q22 led us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 0.2%, from -0.5% before.
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Uruguay | January, 2023
We now forecast the monetary policy rate at 11.00% by the end of 2023, from 11.25% in our previous scenario.
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Paraguay | December, 2022
Lower rates ahead.
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Uruguay | December, 2022
Now we expect lower rates in 2023.
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Paraguay | November, 2022
We expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at the current level (8.50%) by December 2022.
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Uruguay | November, 2022
We expect the central bank to implement one last policy rate hike of 50 bps in December, for a total end level of 11.75%.
Macro Vision
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MEXICO – An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24
Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.
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CHILE – A primer on the draft constitutional text
All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.
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MEXICO - Evaluating the nearshoring moment
Higher potential GDP growth is likely if nearshoring materializes.
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CHILE - Assessing the disinflationary process
CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process
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COLOMBIA -An overview of recent liquidity dynamics
Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.
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CHILE –An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 23
MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.
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CHILE – Assessing the easing cycle ahead
We use Taylor Rule models to assess the central bank’s reaction function.
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MEXICO – An early look at 2024 Elections
Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.
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MEXICO –Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation
Rate cuts are unlikely this year.
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ARGENTINA – Trip Notes
Our views on potential policy changes after this year's elections.
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Roadmap of Chile’s Constitutional process
The new process should conclude this year.
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CHILE: Fiscal policy expansionary stance in 2023
Transitory improvement of fiscal accounts, as growth headwinds mount.
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CHILE: Temporary relief in fiscal accounts
Transitory fiscal relief as headwinds mount.
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COLOMBIA: A Primer on the Presidential Election
An election unfolding amid dissatisfaction with the status quo.
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CHILE: An assessment of fiscal dynamics
We expect the incoming administration to face pressure to loosen the fiscal consolidation path set out in the 2022 budget.
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CHILE: A deeper look at the economic program
The president’s economic team will play a key role in negotiating the breadth, depth and timing of the ambitious structural.
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What’s next in Chile’s Constitutional Process?
Chile is in the process of drafting a new Constitutional text.
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A look at Chile’s upcoming elections
Polarizing election to keep uncertainty elevated.
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Challenging fiscal consolidation for Chile in 22
The fiscal consolidation strategy outlined in Chile’s budget bill for 2022 is ambitious.
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An overview of Chile’s government dollar sales
The MoF is likely to auction roughly an additional USD 9 billion during September-December 2021.
Escenario Macro Latam en español
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Uruguay | Noviembre, 2023
Seguimos esperando un solo recorte más de tasas en la próxima reunión, lo que llevaría a una tasa terminal del 9,25%.
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Paraguay | Noviembre, 2023
Los recortes de tasas finalizarán antes de lo esperado.
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Colombia | Noviembre, 2023
La elevada inflación y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales conducen a un escenario de tasas más altas.
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Chile | Noviembre, 2023
Endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales provoca una ralentización del ciclo de recortes.
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Uruguay | Octubre, 2023
Esperamos un recorte más de tasas este año
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Paraguay | Octubre, 2023
Mantenemos nuestra proyección de crecimiento del PIB de 5,6% para 2023.
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Paraguay | Septiember, 2023
Tasas más bajas por delante.
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Uruguay | Septiembre, 2023
Esperamos menos crecimiento del PIB y menor inflación este año.
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Chile | Septiembre, 2023
La economía tendrá una leve contracción este año.
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Colombia | Septiembre, 2023
Seguimos viendo recortes de tasa a partir de octubre, pero con un ajuste menor de 25 pbs.
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Uruguay | Agosto, 2023
Esperamos menos inflación y tasas más bajas este año.
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Paraguay | Agosto, 2023
La menor inflación llevaría a iniciar los cortes de tasas.
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Colombia | Agosto, 2023
Un COP más fuerte respalda una inflación más baja y recortes de tasas más tempranos.
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Chile | Agosto, 2023
Las tasas reales se mantienen elevadas a pesar del recorte.
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Paraguay | Julio, 2023
Mejor perspectiva de actividad e inflación para 2023.
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Uruguay | Julio, 2023
Una inflación más baja abre espacio para una tasa de política aún más baja.
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Colombia | Julio, 2023
Una desafiante consolidación fiscal.
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Chile | Julio, 2023
Esperamos un recorte de 50pb para julio, pero los riesgos apuntan a un ajuste mayor.
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Paraguay | Junio, 2023
Consolidación fiscal desafiante
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Uruguay | Junio, 2023
Una moneda más fuerte ayuda a la desinflación.
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Colombia | Junio, 2023
Elevada inflación no permitirá recortes de tasa este año
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Chile | Junio, 2023
Elevada inflación no permitirá recortes de tasa este año.
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Uruguay | Mayo, 2023
Todavía esperamos una tasa de interés de 10.50% para fin de 2023.
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Paraguay | Mayo, 2023
Santiago ganó las elecciones y será presidente los próximos cinco años.
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Colombia | Mayo, 2023
No hay margen de política monetaria para recortes
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Chile | Mayo, 2023
Seguimos esperando el inicio del ciclo de recortes en Julio.
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Uruguay | Abril, 2023
Ahora esperamos que la tasa de política monetaria para fines de este año se ubique en 10,50% (anteriormente la proyectábamos en 11,00%).
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Paraguay | Abril, 2023
Proyectamos una inflación de 4,5% para el cierre del año y la tasa de política monetaria en 7,0%.
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Colombia | Abril, 2023
Inflación y tasas permanecerán altas
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Chile | Abril, 2023
Ahora recortes de tasa probablemente para el 3T23.
History - Macro Latam
COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in October
Services inflation remains elevated.
MEXICO – October inflation was broadly in line
Persistent services CPI likely to reinforce Banxico’s cautious tone on the disinflation outlook.
CHILE – Core consumer prices stable in October
Weak core inflationary pressures at the margin.
CHILE – Domestic demand supports another surplus
Contractionary monetary policy supporting BoP adjustment.
MEXICO – Internal demand indicators expanded
Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Inflation forecast revised higher.
CHILE – A mining-led expansion in September
Activity should gradually recover sequentially in the coming months.
Cumulative fiscal deficit widens.
PERU – Another large downside in October’s CPI
The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
Easing likely to be pushed forward.
COLOMBIA – Labor market remain strong in 3Q23
The unemployment rate has continued to trend down.
CHILE – Sectorial surprised to the upside
We believe activity likely bottomed out.
CHILE – Better than expected labor data in Sep.
Labor market slack to increase.
MEXICO – Smaller fiscal deficits in 3Q23
Lower primary expenditures more than offset weaker revenues.
CHILE – October Monetary Policy Meeting preview
We expect a 75bps cut for October Monetary Policy Meeting.
ARGENTINA – Better-than-expected activity
Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023.
MEXICO – Headline CPI surprised to the downside
Lower volatile agricultural prices were the main downside pressure.
MEXICO – Activity momentum improved in August
Services and construction supported activity in the month.
COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in August
Imports fell again sequentially as domestic demand adjusts
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further
We see downside risks to our trade deficit forecast of USD 2.0 billion for this year.
MEXICO – Retail sales softened in August
Real wage bill to continue supporting private consumption.
PERU – Weak activity momentum in August
Activity should gradually improve during the rest of the year.
COLOMBIA – Activity dynamics weakened in August
Contractionary monetary policy and elevated inflation help cool activity
ARGENTINA – Inflation posts a record in September
We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%.
MEXICO – MP meeting minutes with a hawkish bias
Higher odds of delaying the first rate cut.
MEXICO – Resilient industrial production in August
Construction expanded at a strong pace while manufacturing weakened
CHILE – Weak imports lead to trade surplus
CAD correction to continue.
COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued
Annual core inflation fell to one-digit.
MEXICO – Persistent services inflation
Banxico unlikely to start its easing cycle this year.
CHILE – An upside CPI surprise, led by volatiles
Core inflationary pressures are weakening at the margin.
PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues
Our end-of-year policy rate forecast stands at 6.75%.
MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in July
Gross Fixed Investment is driven by construction investment.
PERU – A downside surprise in September’s CPI
The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.
CHILE – Widening of the fiscal deficit
Second consecutive real expenditure contraction.
CHILE – large negative IMACEC surprise in August
A gradual sequential improvement toward yearend is our base case.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
We view the October meeting as a 50-50 call for the beginning of an easing cycle with a 25-bp cut.
COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate continues to fall
Labor marklet loosening expected ahead.
CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics in August
We believe the activity cycle is bottoming out in 3Q23.
CHILE – Unemployment rate continues to rise
Weakening of the labor market is consolidating.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
The Board expects a more gradual decline in inflation.
MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in August
Manufacturing exports deteriorated, dragged by vehicle sales.
ARGENTINA –Activity rebounded sequentially in July
Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals
MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside
We expect the economy to gradually slow during the rest of the year
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit improved temporarily
We forecast a primary deficit of 3.0% of GDP for this year, above the 1.9% deficit targeted for 2023 in the agreement with the IMF.
MEXICO – CPI broadly in line with consensus
Our 2023 yearend inflation forecast stands at 4.5%.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Board is likely to be more sensitive to asset prices (rates, FX) in the next decisions.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further
We expect a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion for this year.
MEXICO – Positive momentum in July’s retail sales
The real wage bill, main determinant of private consumption, continued to grow at a solid pace.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July
Imports contracted as the domestic demand weakens.
ARGENTINA – Severe drought dragged activity in 2Q
We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%.
MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand expansion in 2Q
Domestic demand was mainly supported by gross fixed investment.
COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in July
Activity indicators continue to lose momentum.
PERU – Activity deteriorated in July
The El Niño phenomenon likely to weigh on activity in 2H23.
PERU – Monetary policy: a hawkish start
BCRP: the decision does not necessarily imply further consecutive rate cuts
ARGENTINA – CB maintained the policy rate at 118%
Our monetary policy rate (Leliq) forecast stands at 145% for year-end.
ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply
The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly following the devaluation of the currency after the primary election.
MEXICO – 2024 fiscal budget: Higher fiscal deficit
2024 fiscal deficit revised up on higher spending and lower revenue.
MEXICO – Industrial production expanded further
Construction remains the main driver of industrial production.
COLOMBIA – Another large upside inflation surprise
Core inflation pressures are moderating.
CHILE – Widespread downside inflation surprise
We expect some payback in coming months along with increased pass-through pressures.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
Risks to the scenario stem mostly from the global macro-financial situation.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
We are penciling in cuts of 75bps for the remaining meetings of the year (to 8%).
COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows further
FDI financing of CAD continues to improve.
PERU – Upside CPI surprise in August
We still expect the central bank to begin an easing cycle this month.
CHILE – Strong non-mining activity in July
We foresee a further improvement in activity towards yearend.
COLOMBIA – Employment growth remains strong
Employment prospects remain upbeat.
CHILE – Activity dynamics remain weak in July
We expect activity to remain weak in the short term.
CHILE – Fiscal deficit deepened in July
2023 financing needs likely to increase.
MEXICO – 2Q23 Inflation Report
Odds of delaying rate cuts are increasing.
CHILE – Unemployment in July quarter
We expect a gradual loosening ahead.
MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in July
Strength in manufacturing exports likely to fade amid softer external demand.
MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed in 2Q23
Narrower energy goods trade deficit supported the improvement.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
Odds increase of a delay in the beginning of the easing cycle.
Core services inflation still without a clear downward trend.
ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 2Q23
We maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023.
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened further in July
We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the 1.9% target agreed with the IMF for 2023.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in line
We see downside risk to our USD 1 billion trade surplus forecast for this year.
CHILE – A smaller-than-expected GDP fall in 2Q23
Private Consumption has adjusted.
CHILE – Current account deficit narrows further
FDI dynamics support a more sustainable financing mix.
MEXICO – Upside surprise in June’s retail sales
The real wage bill is supporting private consumption.
COLOMBIA – The economy fell sequentially in 2Q23
The import and investment contractions reflect weaker domestic demand.
ARGENTINA – Further deterioration in inflation
The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 2Q23
Double-digit declines in imports persist.
PERU – Soft activity momentum in 2Q23
Harsh weather conditions and social conflicts curbed GDP in 1H23.
COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 2Q23
Softening domestic demand supports lower rates ahead.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Swifter CLP appreciation pass-through supported lower rate trajectory.
MEXICO – industrial production upside surprise
Solid construction sector growth supported industrial production.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
The Board remains cautious on the disinflationary process.
COLOMBIA – CPI above consensus in July
Sequential core inflation pressures moderated further.
MEXICO – Lower inflation in July
We expect Banxico’s policy rate to remain on hold at 11.25% this week.
CHILE – Inflation falls 1.1pp to 6.5% in July
Swift disinflation process leaves door open for another 100bp rate cut.
CHILE – A lower-than-expected, trade surplus
The domestic demand adjustment, amid contractionary monetary policy is supporting a narrowing of external imbalances.
MEXICO – Investment supported internal demand
Construction investment expanded at a strong pace.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Scenario does not consider the materialization of an “El Niño” phenomenon.
PERU – Lower inflation in July
Higher odds of BCRP cutting its policy rate before 4Q23.
CHILE – Non-mining activity falls sequentially
In the short-term, we expect activity to remain weak, with activity bottoming out in 3Q23.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
Rising risks that rate cuts unfold later this year.
COLOMBIA – Downside unemployment surprise in June
Private salaried jobs continued to drive employment dynamics.
CHILE – Mining rebound offsets core activity
Quarterly sequential activity dynamics weakened in 2Q.
CHILE – Real expenditure growth decelerated
Revenue contraction slowed materially, aided by base effects.
MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H23
A strong peso and lower oil prices are curbing fiscal revenues.
MEXICO – Another solid GDP expansion in 2Q23
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7% has an upward bias.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
A larger than expected cut to begin the cycle.
CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside
The job creation subsidy is likely sustaining employment resilience.
MEXICO – Sequential activity slipped in May
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.
MEXICO – Bi-weekly inflation prints in line
We expect inflation to end the year at 4.5%.
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 2Q23
We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023 (1.9% of GDP).
MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside
Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further in June
We recently revised our trade balance forecast down to a surplus of USD 1.0 billion for this year, due to the worse-than-expected deterioration of the external accounts.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in May
Imports fall as domestic demand adjusts.
ARGENTINA – Activity fell again in May
Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 led to the downward revision of our expectation for a contraction this year, from 4% to 3%.
PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in May
Activity momentum remained weak.
COLOMBIA – Activity slowdown continued in May
Activity indicators continued to lose momentum.
ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed in June
Given the high volatility, we recently lowered our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.
MEXICO – Industrial production surprised
Construction sector rebounded, while manufacturing output deteriorated.
COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in June
Food prices are swiftly correcting, but El Niño risks loom.
CHILE – A larger-than-expected trade surplus
CAD correction to continue.
CHILE – Another large downside inflation surprise
Inflationary pressures at the margin are falling swiftly.
MEXICO – June CPI broadly in line
We expect rate cuts in 4Q23.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
Board members are cautious of the disinflationary process.
CHILE – Monetary Policy meeting Minutes
Expect divided decisions ahead.
MEXICO – Internal demand momentum remains positive
Machinery & equipment investment is the main driver of GFI.
CHILE – Spending accelerates and Revenues fall
Spending pressures and weak revenues will test fiscal accounts this year.
PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in June
Downside pressure to the headline figure came mainly from lower food prices.
CHILE – Non-mining activity flat sequentially
Activity during 2Q23 will likely post a notable decline.
ARGENTINA – Activity declined in April
We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
The bar is high for rate cuts to occur this year.
COLOMBIA – Employment growth remained upbeat
Private and self-employment drive job creation.
ARGENTINA – Wide current account deficit in 1Q23
We forecast a current account deficit of 1.5% of GDP for 2023, but the risks are tilted to a wider deficit.
CHILE – Mining drags activity in May
Tight monetary policy and reduced household savings to sustain weak activity ahead.
CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside
The sequential improvement in the labor market is unlikely to persist.
MEXICO – Stable trade balance in May
Manufacturing exports’ positive momentum is unlikely to persist amid a softer external scenario.
MEXICO – Solid monthly GDP expansion in April
Services sector is the main driver of activity.
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit was unchanged in May.
We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, which is worse than the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023.
ARGENTINA – GDP expanded in 1Q23
We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
Rate cuts are unlikely before 4Q23.
MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised
Inflation figure is supportive of rate cuts in 4Q23.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened in May
We see downward risk to our trade balance forecast of a surplus of USD 3.5 billion for this year.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in April
Imports fall as domestic demand weakens.
MEXICO – Solid domestic demand expansion in 1Q23
Private sector was the main driver of domestic demand.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
A swifter disinflation path.
MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in April
Real wage bill, main private consumption determinant, remains resilient.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut
Better inflation readings are the missing piece to trigger more decisive monetary easing.
COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the downside
Activity is contracting from last year.
COLOMBIA – A challenging fiscal consolidation path
Government’s financing needs revised up.
PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in April
El Niño weather phenomenon curbs activity in April.
ARGENTINA – Inflation remains high
We recently raised our inflation forecast for this year to 175% from 125%, as we now expect a meaningful official real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.
MEXICO – Soft industrial production momentum
Strong sequential expansion in manufacturing output in April is unlikely to last.
CHILE – A volatiles-led downside inflation surprise
Core inflation falling from high levels.
COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise
Core inflation has likely peaked.
CHILE – Another large trade surplus in May
The lithium pull eases.
MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q23
GFI expansion is driven by machinery & equipment investment.
COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q23
CAD financing is healthy.
PERU – Annual inflation eased slightly in May
We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
None of the board members gave a clear indication of when will Banxico assess cutting rates.
CHILE – Core activity falls sequentially in April
Commerce activity trends down.
MEXICO – 1Q23 Inflation Report
Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.25%.
CHILE – Fiscal spending accelerates
Fiscal dynamics tested by sharp rise in spending and falling revenues.
COLOMBIA – Sequential employment fall in April
Unemployment rate remains low.
CHILE – Weak April activity in spite of mining
Tight monetary policy will support activity adjustment.
CHILE – Unemployment surprisingly fell in April
Unemployment rate drop expected to be transitory.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
More information needed to evaluate the inflation trend.
MEXICO – Solid GDP expansion in 1Q23
Services sector was the main driver of GDP, curbed by manufacturing output.
MEXICO – Stable 4-quarter rolling current account
Remittances are slowly cooling down.
MEXICO – Trade balance deteriorated in April
Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.
MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H May
Downside surprise was driven mainly by the non-core index and slightly by core CPI.
ARGENTINA – Activity posted a sequential increase
We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen
We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, larger than the target agreed with the IMF for 2023.
MEXICO – Positive retail sales momentum in 1Q23
Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, expanded at a solid pace.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in April underperformed
The trade balance is deteriorating rapidly.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: pause at 11.25%
Rate cuts are unlikely this year, in our view
CHILE – GDP contracts 0.6% yoy in 1Q23
Domestic demand remains a key drag to activity.
CHILE – A current account surplus in 1Q23
The CAD narrowing is unfolding swiftly.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit remained wide in 1Q23
Weak oil exports limits speed of CAD correction.
COLOMBIA – Strong growth in 1Q23
Core activity weakening in line with end of hiking cycle.
PERU – Weak activity momentum in 1Q23
Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.
ARGENTINA – The CB increased reference rate
The monetary authority hiked the 28-day Leliq rate to 97% from 91%.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
Activity and inflation have involved in line with the IPoM scenario.
ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply in April
We see upside risk to our 125% inflation forecast for YE23.
COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 1Q23
High rates, weak sentiment and elevated policy uncertainty contributing to slowdown.
MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in March
Soft external demand is affecting industrial production.
CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April
Consumer goods imports continue to trend down.
CHILE – Indexation pressures core inflation in April
Inflation back in single-digits.
CHILE – Constitutional Council vote
There is the risk of a rejection to the proposed text in the plebiscite in December.
COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in April
Inflation has peaked, but the disinflation process will be slow.
MEXICO – Solid internal demand momentum in Feb
GFI strong expansion is supported mainly by machinery & equipment investment.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Output gap remains positive this year.
CHILE – Fiscal balance swings back to a deficit
Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts ahead.
CHILE – Another mining-led activity drop in March
Non-mining activity weakness will resume in 2Q23.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
We believe the tightening cycle likely ended.
COLOMBIA – Significant unemployment drop in 1Q23
Labor demand is likely to cool ahead.
CHILE – Mining-led activity weakness in March
Sequential contractions in mining would add downside risks.
CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp yoy in 1Q23
Private salary dynamics weaken.
MEXICO – Activity surprised to the upside in 1Q23
GDP expansion was driven by a strong services sector.
MEXICO – Better than expected trade balance
Still solid manufacturing exports and weak non-oil imports supported the trade surplus.
MEXICO – Soft sequential monthly GDP in February
Activity was dragged by manufacturing, construction and services sectors.
ARGENTINA – Activity remained flat in February
We forecast a 4% contraction this year, reflecting a harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.
MEXICO – Inflation fell further in 1H April
Odds of Banxico pausing in May increased.
ARGENTINA – Wide trade deficit in March
We recently revised our trade balance forecast to a surplus of USD 4.5 billion for this year.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Core inflation is not declining and activity has not adjusted as expected.
MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February
Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, remains resilient.
PERU – Activity improved in February
Downside risk to activity remain amid harsh weather conditions.
ARGENTINA – Record high inflation in March
We expect another increase in the Leliq rate (currently at 78%) at the upcoming central bank meeting.
COLOMBIA – Weaker activity in February
Sequential dynamics deteriorating.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
We expect one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.
MEXICO – Solid Industrial production expansion
IP expansion was supported by mining, while construction and services sectors contracted.
CHILE – A large trade surplus in 1Q23
Widespread export growth recorded during the 1Q23.
CHILE – High inflation in March
Core inflation rising at the margin.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
We now consider a more cautious cutting cycle that results in a yearend rate of 9.25% (8% previously).
MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in Jan
Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.
COLOMBIA – Unfavorable core inflation
Core pressures continue to rise at the margin.
MEXICO – Headline inflation fell
Our base case is for another 25-bp rate hike in May’s meeting.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
A hawkish forward guidance was maintained.
MEXICO –2024 Preliminary Economic Policy Guideline
Debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to remain stable.
CHILE – Mining-led drag to activity in February
The gradual correction in economic activity is unfolding.
PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in March
BCRP will likely remain on hold throughout the year
CHILE – Small fiscal surplus in February
Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts this year.
COLOMBIA – Employment rose for the third month
Labor demand is likely to cool ahead due to the anticipated economic slowdown.
CHILE – Activity decline in February
Retail activity continues to fall sequentially, but at a slower rate.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, implying one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
The tightening cycle likely ended or is near to its end.
CHILE – Unemployment rate ticks up in February
Public sector boosts job growth.
ARGENTINA – Soft rebound of activity in January
We forecast GDP -3.0% for 2023, with risks tilted downward due to a worse-than-expected drought in the agriculture sector.
ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 4Q22
We forecast a current account deficit of 0.4% of GDP for 2023.
MEXICO – Better-than-expected activity in January
We recently revised upward our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 1.3% in our previous scenario.
MEXICO – Solid retail sales growth in January
A still decent GDP expansion in 1Q23 is likely
ARGENTINA – GDP decreased in 4Q22
We recently revised our GDP forecast to -3.0% for 2023, from -1.5% before.
MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H March
The downside surprise was driven by the non-core CPI
MEXICO – Domestic demand expanded at a solid pace
Domestic demand was supported by a rebound in gross fixed investment
ARGENTINA –Trade surplus on falling imports in Fev
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a severe drought
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in February
We estimate that the 12-month-rolling primary deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP from 2.3% in December 2022.
CHILE – Economy slowed by more than anticipated
Private consumption is normalizing
CHILE – CAD narrows at the margin
A rising goods surplus is indicative of the domestic demand slowdown that is underway
COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit to start the year
A gradual narrowing of the external imbalance.
PERU – Activity deteriorated in January
Construction and mining sectors were the most affected.
COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics to start the 23
Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.
ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in Feb.
We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year, with upward risk.
MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside
Recent inflation evolution is supportive with slowing down the pace of rate hikes.
Core inflation remains elevated at the margin.
CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February
Imports continue to trend down.
MEXICO – Internal demand ended on a strong note
Solid internal demand expansion is unlikely to last amid a softer external scenario.
COLOMBIA – Another large inflation increase
Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.
CHILE – Revenues jump start fiscal accounts
A surplus to start the year.
COLOMBIA – CAD narrows in 4Q yet remains wide
Slowing domestic demand will aid a CAD correction this year.
MEXICO – 4Q22 Inflation Report: cautious tone on
Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, which implies two 25-bp rate hikes more.
CHILE – Another upside activity surprise in Jan.
Data points to a more gradual closing of the positive output gap than initially expected.
PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside
BCRP policy rate likely to remain unchanged in March’s meeting.
COLOMBIA – Unemployment exceeds expectations
Sequential employment gains fail to offset the labor force increase.
CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics to start the year
Activity excluding mining is still falling sharply on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
CHILE – Employment ticks up in January
Job gains pulled again by the formal sector.
MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in January
Manufacturing exports rebound is unlikely to last given a soft external scenario.
MEXICO – 2022 Current account deficit widened
High remittances mitigated the worsening of the trade goods balance.
Manufacturing output was the main drag to sequential GDP growth.
ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in December
We now see downside risks to our -1.5% GDP growth forecast.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes in the March meeting.
MEXICO – Slight downside CPI surprise in 1H Feb.
Banxico will likely slow down the rate hike pace in March.
ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased in January
To reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 – as agreed to with the IMF – is challenging in our view.
ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in January
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe drought.
CHILE – MoF's fiscal projections for 2023
Growth revised down as fiscal impulse turns positive.
COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected
Higher rates and weak domestic sentiment point to an activity slowdown ahead.
PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in Dec
Protests during December likely had some impact on activity.
ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated in January
In the absence of consistent fiscal and monetary policies, price controls are unlikely to succeed in taming inflation.
COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit narrowing in 2022
Imports lose momentum.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Inflation convergence to rely significantly on the credibility of the Central Bank.
MEXICO – Industrial production upside in Dec.
A rebound in construction sector supported the expansion in industrial production.
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 50-bp hike
We now expect a terminal policy rate of 11.50%.
MEXICO – Core inflation rebounded in January
One-off price adjustments pressured core inflation.
CHILE – Inflation starts with an upside surprise
Inertia and the full effect of the VAT on services should keep inflationary pressures elevated ahead.
MEXICO – Soft internal demand in November
Private consumption was the main drag to internal demand in the month.
CHILE – A large trade surplus to start the year
CAD correction expected ahead.
COLOMBIA – A large, but expected, CPI increase
Service pressures remain on the up.
PERU – Inflation rebounded in January
Inflation surprised to the downside, but it remains pressured.
CHILE – GDP grows 2.7% in 2022
The economy showed greater resilience during the latter part of 2022.
COLOMBIA – Employment falls sequentially in 4Q22
A notable rise in the minimum wage contribute to the weakening of the labor market.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Higher inflation expectations amid a strong indexation process.
CHILE – Fiscal dynamics
Downturn to stress the fiscal accounts.
CHILE – Activity ends 22 on a better-than-expected
Non-mining activity continued to fall at the margin in 4Q22.
MEXICO – Activity moderated in 4Q22
GDP growth in 2022 would stand preliminarily at 3.0%.
MEXICO – Below target fiscal balance in 2022
Deviation in the fiscal balance is explained by lower than estimated tax revenues.
CHILE – Unemployment rate closes 2022 at 7.9%
Labor market deterioration should help to correct macro imbalances.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp hike
The tightening cycle is close to concluding.
MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in 4Q22
Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Unanimous hold
The Board continues to signal a cautious approach.
ARGENTINA – New sequential decline in Activity
For 2023, we expect activity to contract by 1.5%, following an expansion of 5.5% in 2022.
MEXICO – Annual inflation rebounded in 1H Jan.
We expect Banxico to hike its policy rate by 25-bp in the February meeting.
ARGENTINA – 2022 Fiscal deficit outperforms targ
We believe that it will be challenging to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 due to the electoral cycle.
MEXICO – Retail sales weakened in November
Retail sales momentum is soft.
ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in December
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe draught.
COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrows in November
Consumption slowdown ahead will point to a further weakness in imports.
COLOMBIA – Activity indicators moderated in Nov.
We expect the economy to slow to 0.6% in 2023.
PERU – Activity slowed in November
Activity momentum is also soft.
ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in December
The 12-month inflation reading came in at 94.8%.
MEXICO – Industrial production stagnated in Nov.
Manufacturing sector deteriorated, consistent with a soft external scenario.
MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in October
Gross fixed investment remains below the level at the beginning of the current administration.
CHILE – A large trade surplus in December
We expect a gradual CAD adjustment for this year.
MEXICO – Core inflation peaked in November
Inflation was broadly in line with market expectations.
CHILE – Inflation falls to 12.8% to close off 22
Inflationary pressures at the margin are easing.
MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
Our terminal policy rate forecast stands at 11.25%.
COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Inflationary pressures at the margin show no sign of easing.
CHILE – Mining-led 2.5% Imacec fall in November
The outlook for activity dynamics remain downbeat as business sentiment sits near lockdown levels.
CHILE – Weak activity data in November
The economic adjustment continues as the economy moves to more sustainable levels.
COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprises in Nov.
Employment softened at the margin.
CHILE – Massive fiscal adjustment continues
Real expenditures fall by 35.8% in November.
PERU – Still high inflation in December
We expect inflation to slow down to 3.7% by the end of this year.
CHILE – Gradual labor market loosening underway
Stalled labor force is preventing a higher unemployment rate.
MEXICO – Narrower than expected trade deficit
Manufacturing exports and non-oil imports weakened.
MEXICO – Monthly GDP stagnated in October
Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.9% for 2022.
MEXICO – Slight core inflation slowdown
We expect another 50-bp rate hike in first meeting of next year.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Bolstering policy credibility a key factor behind the Board’s stance.
ARGENTINA – Sequential activity contraction
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast upward for 2022, to 5.5% from 4.2% in the previous scenario.
MEXICO – Domestic demand moderated in 3Q22
Private and private demand curbed domestic demand growth.
COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October
External imbalances yet to correct.
MEXICO – Decent retail sales expansion in October
Private consumption determinants are still supportive.
ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in November
Imports decelerated further, affected by controls.
COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
Rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.
ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in November
Consumer prices rose by 4.9% mom in November (from 6.3% in October).
MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
We expect a policy terminal rate of 11.25%.
COLOMBIA – Activity indicators mixed in October
A contractionary monetary policy and high inflation will likely dent consumption dynamics ahead.
PERU – Sequential activity deteriorated in Oct.
Activity momentum is soft.
CHILE – A New Constitutional Process takes Shape
Agreement lays the groundwork for a new constitutional process.
MEXICO – industrial production expansion in Oct.
Expansion was supported by construction sector, while manufacturing output grew at soft pace.
MEXICO – Core inflation tainted by black Friday
We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes to 50-bp in December.
CHILE – A small trade surplus in November
Imports slowdown ahead should help to correct external imbalances.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
Risks to the central bank scenario stem mainly from the external scenario.
CHILE – Inflation rebounds in November
Another large surprise to inflation.
CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
Awaiting the correction of the current macroeconomic imbalances before easing.
MEXICO – Slower internal demand expansion in3Q22
Gross fixed investment is dragged by construction investment.
COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Core pressures remain elevated.
COLOMBIA – Large current account deficit in 3Q22
Foreign direct investment eased from recent quarters.
CHILE – Fiscal revenues contract in October
Fiscal surplus expected this year.
CHILE – Gradual activity adjustment continues
GDP growth for this year will likely exceed our 2.3% call.
MEXICO – 3Q22 Inflation Report
Banxico increased their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 3.0% (from 2.2%) and 1.8% (from 1.6%), respectively.