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Latam | Economic Analysis

See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.

Macro Latam

  • MEXICO – Net exports continue to improve

    Small deficit in July, but another high non-oil trade surplus.

  • MEXICO – Small current account surplus in 2Q25

    We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% of GDP.

  • ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

    The sharp and broad-based decline in government confidence takes place with elections taking place in the short term.

  • PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

    We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% for YE25.

  • PERU – GDP growth of 2.8% YoY in 2Q

    The economy continues to grow sequentially.

  • MEXICO – 2Q25 GDP rose 0.6% QoQ

    We recently revised our GDP forecast upward to 0.6% YoY in 2025.

  • MEXICO – A benign print CPI

    We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1%.

  • MEXICO – Negative bias in June’s retail sales

    Retail sales fell by 0.4% MoM SA in June.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in July

    We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity plummeted sequentially

    Our GDP growth for YE25 stands at 5.0%.

  • URUGUAY – The BCU decided to cut

    We expect the BCU to cut the policy rate at the next few policy meetings, bringing the rate down to 8% by the end of 2025.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 2Q25

    Imports increased at a double-digit rate in.

  • ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus fell slightly

    Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target.

  • CHILE – Activity exceeds expectations in 2Q

    The economy is consolidating its recovery path.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit

    A well-financed CAD.

  • PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in June

    Slowing activity momentum.

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected activity in 2Q25.

    Public consumption and gross fixed investment increased at the margin.

  • PERU – BCRP Holds the Policy Rate at 4.5%

    Timing of next cut hinges on external conditions.

  • COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in June

    Strong activity momentum in 2Q25.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated at the margin

    Our inflation forecast stands at 28.5% for YE25.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Minutes

    Expecting a pause in September.

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside

    Services inflation remains sticky at an elevated level.

  • MEXICO –Negative surprise in industrial production

    We forecast a 0.2% GDP growth in 2025, with a positive bias.

  • CHILE – Another upside core inflation surprise

    Sequential core pressures edged up.

  • ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in June

    GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 5.2%, but now with downside risks.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

    Once again, in a split (4x1) decision, the board delivered a 25-bp cut and continued to signal additional adjustments (plural) ahead.

  • CHILE – First trade deficit since late 2022

    Imports signal a domestic demand recovery.

  • MEXICO – CPI ended July below expectations

    We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1%.

  • CHILE – BCCh anuncia programa inesperado

    The program will be reviewed every six months.

Macro Vision

  • MEXICO – Notes from our August trip

    The bar for Banxico to continue cutting rates beyond the September meeting is high.

  • Electoral reform takes the stage in Mexico

    The proposal aims to eliminate proportional representation in the election of senators and deputies, change campaign financing, and abolish local electoral authorities.

  • Dissenting votes in MP decisions in LatAm

    Within the region, BanRep has the highest share of dissenting votes: 61% of all decisions are not unanimous, compared to 27% for Banxico, 15% for BCB, and only 9% for BCCh.

  • An Updated 2025 Chilean Elections Primer

    Navigating the yearend election.

  • MEXICO – Pemex and sovereign risk

    Pemex’s challenging operational backdrop and deteriorating financial performance heighten spillover risks to the sovereign’s balance sheet.

  • MEXICO – Notes from our trip

    The overall sentiment seems negative, but with a twist: Mexico’s outlook appears worse in absolute terms, although better compared to its own worst-case scenario and without reciprocal tariffs.

  • 2025 Chilean Elections Primer

    Crime expected to be a key campaign issue.

  • Bilateral relationship between China and Mexico

    Mexico appears committed to, if necessary, sacrifice some of its bilateral relationship with China to preserve the USMCA free-trade deal.

  • COLOMBIA - Interest rate cycles

    This descriptive study analyzes 11 interest rate cycles since December 2002 to identify recurrences and patterns in monetary policy decisions.

  • MEXICO – Interest rate cycles

    This descriptive study analyzes 7 interest rate cycles since January 2008 to identify recurrences and patterns in monetary policy decisions.

  • CHILE-Mining’s role in the economy and the outlook

    Mining investment to boost activity.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade relationship with the U.S.

    External debt is sizable (~48% of GDP) and domestic policy uncertainty may add to pressure.

  • CHILE – Pension Reform: Is this time different?

    Reform discussions appear to lose momentum.

  • PERU – A balanced economy set for higher growth

    Fiscal consolidation should continue next year.

  • CHILE – Fiscal framework

    Medium-term fiscal challenges linger.

  • Venezuela Primer

    Time for change?

  • COLOMBIA – Public Finance: Revenue blues

    Testing the limits of the fiscal rule.

  • CHILE – Consumption non-performing loans

    Consumption NPLs are projected to gradually decline.

  • CHILE – An update on Chile’s fiscal dynamics

    Financing needs remain elevated.

  • MEXICO – A challenging fiscal outlook

    Social programs are likely to make fiscal consolidation hard.

  • CHILE – Retail Sales: The only way is up! right?

    Retail sales to support gradual private consumption-led recovery in 2024.

  • CHILE – Inflation expectations

    Inflation expectations play a fundamental role in inflation targeting regimes.

  • CHILE – CLP dynamics: The sky’s the limit?

    CLP pressure expected to ease ahead.

  • Synchrony between neighbors: inflation surprises

    When a monthly consumer inflation reading in one country in the region delivers a surprise, inflation results in other countries tend to show deviation in the same direction.

  • CHILE – An Assessment of Fiscal Dynamics into 2024

    Tax reforms and adjustments to the fiscal framework to continue in 2024.

  • MEXICO – An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE – A primer on the draft constitutional text

    All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • MEXICO - Evaluating the nearshoring moment

    Higher potential GDP growth is likely if nearshoring materializes.

  • CHILE - Assessing the disinflationary process

    CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA -An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

Scenario Review Mexico

  • A drizzle, not a thunderstorm

    Activity data continues to show resilience.

  • Take a walk on the hawkish side

    The global dollar weakness is beneficial, but tariff threats limit a more favorable scenario for the local currency.

  • Hope with a hedge

    The economy is slowing but showing some resilience. We revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% (from -0.5%).

  • The long and winding road

    This is a challenging year for growth in Mexico.

  • Winter is here

    We revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast downward again, now predicting a contraction of 0.5% (from 0.0%).

  • Not a recession, yet

    Our 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised downward again, this time to 0.0% (from 0.9%).

  • Uncertainty takes a toll on economic activity

    We revised our 2025 growth forecast down to 0.9% from 1.5% (2026 to 1.4%, from 1.7%).

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Mexico economic outlook in 2025.

  • Upside for growth despite lingering uncertainty

    Growth supported by domestic and external consumption, amid a weaker currency and uncertainty ahead.

  • More volatility ahead

    Higher rates, continuous deterioration of the institutional investment outlook, and uncertainty about the relationship with the U.S.

  • More headwinds for activity?

    Continuous policy rate cuts penciled in.

  • Easing cycle to continue

    Judicial reform was approved.

  • Policy challenges amid lower rates

    Policy challenges.

  • Downshifting growth forecasts

    Our GDP growth estimate for 2024 is now at 1.6% (previously at 2.3%).

  • Sheinbaum’s landslide

    Higher odds of radical institutional changes.

  • Another pause is likely

    Our base scenario, considers a rate cut in June.

  • Start of the easing cycle

    We changed our call for a pause in May

  • Rate cuts are near

    Opening the door for rate cuts.

  • Non-core inflation strikes back 

    We expect a first rate cut in March.

  • Top themes for 2024

    Lower rates in an election year.

  • Fiscal expansion to drive growth in 2024

    A rate cut likely in 1Q24.

  • Easing cycle delayed further

    We now expect the easing cycle to begin in May.

  • High rates for longer

    Rate cuts postponed until next year.

  • Delaying the beginning of the easing cycle

    We now expect the first rate cut to take place in December.

  • 2023 GDP forecast revised even higher

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • Surprisingly resilient activity

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.7% (previously at 2.4%).

  • Rate cuts during 4Q23

    We now expect an end of year policy rate of 10.75%.

  • Additional rate hikes unlikely

    Policy rate likely to remain unchanged throughout the year at 11.25%

  • Hiking cycle is likely to end soon

    We expect one last 25-bp rate hike.

  • Another battle in the supreme court

    Better outlook this year, but worse the next.

Scenario Review Chile

  • On the final stretch

    We anticipate no rate move in September.

  • Prepped to cut

    We expect a MPR of 4.25% by yearend.

  • An earlier restart to the easing cycle

    Timing of rate cuts down to strategic preference.

  • Rate cuts are coming

    Labor market slack persists.

  • The tide turns

    Risks tilt towards a weaker activity outlook.

  • Moving in the right direction

    Upside GDP bias and risks of swifter disinflation.

  • Upward revisions to growth and inflation

    BCCh to remain on hold this year.

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Chile economic outlook in 2025.

  • CLP pressure poses disinflation and rate risks

    The central bank will continue to signal a path to neutral.

  • Growing headwinds

    CLP whiplash.

  • Room to keep going

    Estimating a lower terminal rate.

  • The cuts must go on

    Risks tilt towards even lower rates.

  • BCCh pauses, hinting at more cuts down the road

    Higher short-term inflaton expectations warrant a cautious BCCh approach.

  • Approaching a pause

    Higher nominal rate path, but lower real rates.

  • Fine-tuning

    Uncertainty on electricity price adjustments risk higher inflation.

  • Nearing the last mile

    More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data.

  • Upside pressures

    Rate path revised up.

  • Upside pressure

    The CLP, recent inflation surprises, and the Fed pose challenges for BCCh.

  • Falling fast toward neutral

    A gradual sequential recovery in economic activity.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A faster-than-expected disinflation process supports swifter MP easing.

  • Easing continues

    Global developments permit swifter easing cycle.

  • A more gradual easing cycle

    Tighter global financial conditions have resulted in a slower easing cycle.

  • A more challenging external backdrop

    Raising the short end of the curve.

  • A more cautious cycle

    Pass-through pressures pose upside risks to the disinflation process.

  • A swifter easing cycle

    Real rates remain high despite cut.

  • Let the easing cycle begin

    We expect a 50-bp rate cut in July, but risks tilt to a larger adjustment.

  • Rate cuts about to start?

    We expect the June IPoM to open the door to a rate cut cycle.

  • In data-dependent mode

    We still expect the beginning of the easing cycle to occur in July

  • Postponing the awaited easing cycle

    Rate cuts now likely only in 3Q23.

  • A more gradual easing cycle ahead

    Caution rules for the Central Bank.

Scenario Review Colombia

  • Narrowing scope for monetary policy cuts

    Inflation concerns keep BanRep cautious.

  • A balancing act

    Fiscal woes reduce BanRep’s room to maneuver.

  • Fiscal framework will set the tone

    CPI pressures and fiscal concerns call for caution.

  • Higher inflation, higher rates

    Gradual activity recovery continues.

  • Caution is the name of the game

    Fiscal accounts in the spotlight.

  • All eyes on BanRep

    More unpleasant inflation surprises.

  • Cautious Monetary Policy to prevail

    Disinflationary process to decelerate

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Colombia economic outlook in 2025.

  • Easing cycle to continue amid fiscal stress

    Core inflation remain elevated.

  • Higher fiscal noise, higher rates

    The disinflationary process continues.

  • Inquietante escenario fiscal

    Una Junta de BanRep dividida se inclinaría hacia mayores recortes.

  • Unsettling fiscal scenario

    A divided BanRep board moves toward larger cuts.

  • Easing amid a strike and a tax reform

    Rate cut caution expected ahead.

  • Is the acceleration of the easing cycle near?

    We expect BanRep to remain cautious

  • A weak fiscal revenue story

    Wider fiscal deficits in 2024 and 2025.

  • The shifting fiscal sands

    Fiscal challenges abound.

  • Gradual easing to continue

    Global financial conditions will play a key role in MP

  • Fast and furious?

    A more gradual easing cycle.

  • Easing to continue

    Growth revised down slightly.

  • Continuing the easing cycle with a 25bp cut

    A slow but steady disinflation path.

  • Top themes for 2024

    .

  • A gradual easing cycle is expected

    The size of the next cuts will be data dependent.

  • Easing cycle postponed

    High inflation and tight global financial conditions lead to higher scenario for rates.

  • Sticky inflation lowers October rate cut odds

    Sticky inflation leads to slower easing cycle.

  • Pressure to cut rates increases

    We still see rate cuts starting October but with a smaller 25bp adjustment.

  • Easing cycle penciled in for 4Q23

    Stronger COP supports lower inflation and earlier rate cuts.

  • In observation mode

    A challenging fiscal consolidation path.

  • Governability challenges increase

    With elevated inflation, rate cuts are not expected this year.

  • Political uncertainty and inflation constrain MP

    The tightening cycle likely ended

  • Signaling the end of the cycle

    Inflation and rates to stay high.

Scenario Review Argentina

  • Volatility increases as the election draws closer

    Tweaking our growth forecast as nominal uncertainty remains elevated.

  • All eyes on the external accounts

    We maintained our GDP growth forecast of 5.2% for 2025.

  • Disinflation continues at a solid pace

    Positive news for Milei on several fronts.

  • Learning to float

    We believe the gradual activity recovery will continue and raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 5.2% from 4.5%.

  • Boom! Floating within an exchange rate band

    The central bank surprised by announcing important changes to its exchange rate framework.

  • Navigating political noise

    Waiting for the agreement with the IMF.

  • Fighting inflation is still the only game in town

    Improving outlook, albeit fragile and subject to macro and political risks.

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Argentina economic outlook in 2025.

  • So far, so good ... a better outlook for 2025

    Against all odds: Confidence in the government edges higher

  • The pieces are falling into place …

    The sequential rebound in economic activity has gained some steam, prompting us to revise our GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

  • Building a fiscal anchor

    We improved our fiscal projections for 2024 and 2025, in line with the budget bill’s forecasts, reflecting this year’s progress and the administration’s commitment to the fiscal accounts.

  • Recession deepens as disinflation continues

    We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to -4.0% (from -3.5% in our previous scenario), mainly due to the sizable negative statistical carryover from 2Q24.

  • All hands ondeck on the disinflationary battle

    The cumulative nominal fiscal surplus surpassed the IMF’s targets.

  • Reforms for a post-stabilization recovery

    The approval of the “Bases” bill and the fiscal package should be a turning point in the administration’s efforts to stabilize and deregulate the economy, foster investment, and gradually improve the fiscal accounts.

  • Macro adjustments continue

    Waiting for a recovery in activity.

  • Delivering results

    A more benign outlook for nominal variables.

  • So far, so good, from a macroeconomic perspective

    Stronger ARS, Lower Rates and Primary Fiscal Surplus.

  • Stabilization program yields 1st positive results

    The stabilization program has begun to yield positive initial dividends.

  • First steps in a long journey

    Our scenario assumes the success of a stabilization program, but implementation risks are still high.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A challenging fiscal consolidation in 2024.

  • New government with a stabilization program ahead

    The announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

  • Runoff approaches as adjustment countdown ticks

    All eyes on the November 19 runoff.

  • Macro imbalances increase as elections loom

    Libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei leads voting intentions for October.

  • A rude awakening

    Polls show that Milei’s momentum has increased since the primaries.

  • A fragile economy heads into elections

    The PASO primaries on August 13 will determine the presidential candidates, reveal the voting preferences for each coalition.

  • Macro fragility persists with elections

    Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 has led us to expect a smaller contraction this year of 3% (previously - 4%). In a context of high volatility, we cut our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

  • Lower reserves and less time

    We now expect a meaningful real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

  • A peso under siege

    The depletion of international reserves led to an increase in devaluation expectations for the official exchange rate.

  • An even more fragile economy

    We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast again, to -4.0% from -3.0%.

  • Drought to take a toll on activity

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2023 down to -3% from -1.5%.

Scenario Review Peru

Macro Scenario Latam

Escenario Macro Latam en español

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