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See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.
This report is released every night and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day
Large core inflation upside surprise in 1H October
This report is released every morning and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day
There are upside risks to our forecast for a trade surplus of USD 12 billion in 2021
Recently, we raised our GDP forecast to 7.8% (vs. 7%).
We adjusted our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit downward, to 2.5% of GDP from 3.5%.
Retail sales was mildly affected by the tightening of social distancing measures in August
The swift recovery of internal demand and higher income deficit would offset the positive effect on exports of high terms of
High terms-of-trade, fewer mobility restrictions and expansionary policies are supporting GDP recovery
The further reopening of the economy supported the improvement in economic activity
We are keeping our full-year inflation forecast at 49% despite the government’s recent decision to freeze prices
There is a possibility of accelerating the pace of hiking rates if inflation outlook deteriorates further
Another hawkish surprise from the Central Bank of Chile
The rising pull from tradables in part reflects CLP pass-through
Import dynamism is set to remain upbeat for the time-being Amid elevated stimulus
We expect two more rate hikes (of 25-bps) this year amid high inflation
The expected services recovery and ongoing supply constraints point to persistent inflationary pressures
Soft growth in private consumption is likely reflecting the start of the retightening of social distancing measures
Uncertainty over transitory nature of inflationary pressures
On an annual basis, inflation accelerated further in the 1H of September.
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 12 billion for 2021, slightly down from USD 12.5 billion in 2020.
We anticipate further deterioration of the fiscal accounts in the coming months
We forecast 7% GDP growth for 2021.
Domestic demand recovered further reflecting the reopening of the economy.
We forecast a current account surplus of 0.8% of GDP for 2021
A still-favorable external environment, fewer mobility restrictions and expansionary macro policies will support a swift GDP
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast to 11.0% in 2021, compared to our previous scenario of 10.2%.
50-75bp rate hikes to persist for the time being
We adjusted our inflation forecast for this year up to 49% from 47 in our previous scenario.
Sectors affected by the global microchip supply disruption showed some recovery
Mild fiscal reform included aimed at reducing informality in SME’s
High inflation is consistent with further rate hikes ahead
Under pressure global supply-chains, and expanding domestic consumption will keep inflation elevated
The effect of rising pressures on inflation expectations will support the start of rate hikes.
Internal demand indicators are still below pre-pandemic levels
Suspension of protests and economic reopening support the activity recovery
The policy rate will likely end this year close to (or at) 3.0%
Increasing inflationary pressure supports the BCRP continuing with its normalization cycle
Chile's economy grew by 18.1% YoY in July, again driven by consumption.
Central Bank hikes the policy rate by 75-bps and delivers a hawkish statement
Job creation reflected the economic reopening
Targeted government programs to encourage formal job creation would likely support a further employment recovery ahead
Our base case scenario is for a 25-bps rate hike in September
Chile’s consumption-led recovery marches on, driven by another surge in retail sales
Vehicle exports seem are still affected by the global microchip supply disruption
One board member who backed a rate hike is considering the possibility of a pause
A lower trade services deficit supported the improvement
Services sector supported the GDP expansion amid the reopening of the economy
Core inflation accelerated further in the 1H of August
We forecast a primary deficit of 3.5% of GDP, below the budgeted amount of 4.5% of GDP
Still, momentum remained positive in the 2Q21
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 12 billion for 2021, slightly down from USD 12.5 billion in 2020
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 up to 7.0%
The rising income deficit, amid favorable mining conditions, points to a larger deficit ahead
The rapid economic reopening underway will support activity momentum in 3Q
With protest subsiding, activity concluded the quarter with a significant rebound
Annual growth is still reflecting a favorable base effect
The swift recovery of internal demand and higher income deficit would lead to a large CAD this year
We maintain our forecast of 47% inflation for 2021, with risks tilted to the upside
The convergence of inflation to the central bank target was further delayed
The global supply microchip disruption seems is still affecting the manufacturing sector.
Core food and services CPI exerted upward pressure to core inflation
Inflation expectations are likely to keep rising
The third COVID-19 wave is a downside risk to internal demand recovery
A partial normalization is the preferred route amid elevated levels of uncertainty
We now expect the central bank to start hiking its policy rate as soon as next meeting
The buoyant activity data is unlikely to alter the 25bp pace of rate hikes for the time-being
The expected activity recovery during 2H21 would aid an employment improvement
Signaling a gradual cycle ahead with a preference for retaining some stimulus
Large stimuli and a favorable external environment will support a recovery consolidation during 2H21
Medium-term risks and current uncertainty support a cautious approach
Services sector grew at a strong pace boosted by the reopening of the economy
Public debt fell further amid a higher GDP base
Global microchip shortage is likely still affecting manufacturing exports
Sequential GDP expansion was driven by services sector
Large annual growth reflects a favorable base effect
Higher interest rates ahead are likely
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 14 billion for 2021, up from USD 12.5 billion in 2020
We forecast GDP growth of 6.5% for 2021, from a 9.9% decline in 2020.
We forecast a primary deficit of 3.8% of GDP
With blockades lifted in June, exports and imports are both likely to rebound
Disinflation is coming at the cost of higher distortion of relative prices.
The downturn is expected to be transitory as protest action has since been suspended, mobility restrictions lifted and the v
Annual growth in monthly GDP was boosted by a favorable base effect
Enhanced fiscal impulse supports increasing rates.
Manufacturing output is likely still affected by the global semiconductor supply shortage
We expect Banxico to hike its policy rate by 25-bps in August amid inflationary pressures
Elevated global oil prices and added liquidity injections would pressure inflation in coming months
Supply shocks curb GDP recovery
Risk of a pause in the short term
Normalization cycle continued
Inflationary pressures intensify
AMLO reduced its political power in Congress.
The microeconomic policy direction continues to generate uncertainty.
Nationalistic initiatives in the energy sector persist.
A market-unfriendly energy reform was approved by Congress
Banxico resumed rate cuts
Higher interest rates ahead
As the economy steams ahead, supportive policy mix winds down.
We expect a swifter normalization cycle than currently being signaled
Swift vaccination has allowed for the loosening of mobility restrictions
COVID-19 cases and ICU loads continue to surge, despite significant progress on the vaccination front.
Vaccination rollout slowed during April amid supply constraints, and focus shifted to completing the dual-dose program.
Nearly half of the adult population in Chile has received at least one vaccine dose.
Ample vaccine supply and sustained inoculation pace mean that Chile is set to complete the immediate target
Rate cycle pace to depend on inflation expectations
With inflation registering big upside surprises and external imbalances increasing, monetary stimulus will be reduced
The consolidation of the economic reopening have led us to increase our growth forecast
Tightening of financial conditions, and a divergence of inflation expectations could bring forward the start of the normaliz
A downgrade by Fitch in the coming weeks (also to below investment grade) is possible
Tax reform dilution prevents significant fiscal consolidation and credit rating downgrades become more likely
A structural tax reform is a key prerequisite to maintain investment grade rating
Heightened uncertainty and the risks of failure to reach a deal with the IMF have increased
The government suffered a major defeat in the primary legislative elections.
Uncertainties increased as legislative elections approach.
The Minister of the Economy said the country has gained a “time-bridge” to conclude a needed agreement with the IMF
Our baseline scenario assumes an agreement with the IMF after the mid-term elections, adjusting macro policies somewhat.
Difficulties in advancing with fiscal consolidation
Macroeconomic policies will likely lead to increased distortions
Higher rates amid increasing inflationary pressures
Responsible new fiscal plan, but risks remain
The BCRP kicks off its normalization cycle
A new left-wing government is likely coming
Fragmented Congress likely to make governability a challenge
Polls suggest six candidates could slip through in the first two places and then participate in the second round
We reduced our interest rate forecast for the end of this year to 5.5% from 6.0% before.
Given increasing inflationary pressures we now expect inflation at 6.3% for end of this year and the reference rate at 3.0%
Faster policy rate normalization due to higher inflation
We expect GDP growth of 3.0% for this year, supported by high terms of trade and a further reopening of the economy.
We now see the BCU reference rate at 6.0% in December 2021 (from 5.5% in our previous scenario).
We raised our GDP growth forecast to 5.0% for 2021 (from our previous scenario of 4.5%).
Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths have plummeted in the last month due to the high percentage of vaccinated individuals.
We increased our GDP growth forecast to 4.5% for 2021 (compared with our previous scenario of 3.5%)
Struggling with the second wave.
Still-High COVID-19 contagion despite fast vaccination progress
The fiscal consolidation strategy outlined in Chile’s budget bill for 2022 is ambitious
The MoF is likely to auction roughly an additional USD 9 billion during September-December 2021
A full GDP recovery will likely be achieved in 2021 in most developed countries, but not until 2022 or later in EMs (ex. Chi
International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products.
Ahora esperamos una inflación de 6,3% y una tasa de política alcanzando un nivel de 3,00% a fines de 2021.
Ahora esperamos que la tasa de política finalice 2021 en 5,50% (en comparación con nuestro escenario anterior de 6.00%)
Tras las sorpresas al alza en actividad, ahora esperamos que la economía colombiana se expanda 8,8% este año
Sesgos al alza en la inflación impulsarían nuevas alzas de tasas
Normalización de la tasa de política monetaria más rápida debido a una mayor inflación
Esperamos un crecimiento del PIB de 3.0% para 2021, respaldado por términos de intercambio y una reapertura de la economía
Con la inflación registrando sorpresas al alza y aumentando los desequilibrios externos, se reducirá el estímulo monetario
Mientras la recuperación económica se consolida, el mix de política se torna menos expansivo
Elevamos nuestro pronóstico de crecimiento del PIB al 5.0% para 2021 (desde nuestro escenario anterior de 4.5%).
Ahora vemos la tasa de referencia del BCU en 6,0% en diciembre de 2021 (desde 5,5% en nuestro escenario anterior).
La consolidación de la reapertura económica nos ha llevado a incrementar nuestra previsión de crecimiento
Esperamos un ciclo de normalización más rápido que el señalado actualmente.
Otra reducción de la calificación
Comienza el proceso de alzas de tasa
Acercándose a una nueva normalidad
Mejores perspectivas para la activida
Contagio de Covid-19 aún alto a pesar del rápido progreso de la vacunación.
En medio de la recuperación, las materias primas sostienen los activos de los mercados emergentes.
Luchando con la segunda ola
Mayor brecha entre MD-ME
Las consolidación fiscal luce más desafiante
La segunda ola sigue golpeando fuerte