Latam | Economic Analysis

MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continued

Banxico to deliver another 25-bp cut this month.

COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in August

A widespread deceleration in inflation, but services remain elevated.

CHILE – Trade surplus remained elevated in August

Imports yet to consolidate a sustained improvement.

CHILE – Inflation rose by 0.26% in August

Diverging sequential pressures.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Reduced inflation persistence supports cuts ahead.

CHILE – Monetary Policy: A unanimous 25bps cut

Updated guidance is coherent with two further cuts this year to 5%.

MEXICO – Internal demand weakened further

Private consumption slipped.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2Q24

A significant narrowing of the CAD was observed in the 2Q24.

PERU – Core inflation fell within the target band

Inflation at the margin plummeted.

CHILE – July activity rebound exceeds expectations

Unwinding prior shocks.

CHILE – PublicFinance: Waiting for stronger growth

2024 deficit target seems very challenging.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience in July

Employment increased sequentially in July.

CHILE – Credit: Outstanding loans fell again

Consumer NPLs resumed downward trend.

CHILE – Manufacturing rebounded; IMACEC estimated

Mining has been a key driver of growth this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview

IPoM to include a revision of the structural parameters

CHILE – Unemployment rate surprises to the upside

Informal posts account for 3/5 of annual job creation.

MEXICO – July’s trade balance was better

Manufacturing exports rebounded.

MEXICO – A current account surplus in 2Q24

A lower services deficit contributed to a smaller CAD on a rolling 4-quarter basis.

MEXICO – Soft activity in 2Q24

Our GDP growth forecast of 1.6% has a downside bias.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the September meeting.

MEXICO – Inflation to the downside in 1H August

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in September.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell in June

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 is -3.5%, now with downside risks due to the sizable negative statistical carryover from 2Q24

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus increased in July

The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.6 billion in July, well above the USD 0.7 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Weak activity supports further rate cuts.

CHILE – An expected activity downturn in 2Q24

Net-exports lift annual growth amid soft domestic demand and upbeat mining.

CHILE – A small current account deficit in 2Q24

FDI dynamics bolster favorable financing mix.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continues

Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.0% of GDP.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose sequentially in 2Q24

Imports increased sequentially in 2Q24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Decisions ahead dependent on incoming data.

COLOMBIA – Weaker than expected GDP in 2Q24

Gross fixed investment returned to positive territory.

PERU – Activity proxy slipped in June

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 3.1%.

ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in July

CPI posted the lowest reading since January 2022.

COLOMBIA – Retail sales and manufacturing contracted in 2Q24

Manufacturing fell from 1Q24.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts are data dependent

Core inflation forecast path remained unchanged.

CHILE – Electricity expectedly lifts July inflation

Elevated YTD inflationary pressures.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised slightly to the upside in July

Fruits & vegetables pressures seem to be easing in the 2H July.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Higher short-term growth and inflation lead to a cautious rate path

The main risk to inflation is related to the persistence of the service prices.

MEXICO – Monetary policy preview: a 25-bp rate cut

A split decision is likely.

PERU – Headline inflation surprised to the downside in July

However, core inflation remained persistently above the inflation target.

CHILE – IMACEC grows well below expectations

Several indicators suggest a moderate improvement ahead.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The technical staff revised the GDP growth call up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

An earlier-than-expected pause.

CHILE – Credit: Flows of Commercial Loans surprisingly rose at the margin

Borrowing rates fell further.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment declined at the margin

Private salaried posts continued to be the main job creator.

CHILE – Mixed sectoral activity in June

Overall activity dynamics underwhelmed in 2Q24.

MEXICO – Nominal fiscal deficit narrowed in June

Fiscal expenditures on subsidies & transfers appear to be normalizing.

CHILE – Unemployment in line with expectations

As inflation rises and interest rates remain high, labor market recovery dynamics are likely to soften.

MEXICO – Another soft GDP expansion in 2Q24

Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.6%.

MEXICO – Trade balance was below expectations

Weaker currency could give some support to manufacturing exports in 2H24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Preview: Closer to a pause

Short-term inflation expectations have edged higher.

MEXICO – 1H July headline inflation surprised to the upside

Upside pressure was mainly due to volatile fruits & vegetable prices.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP proxy rebounded in May

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 1.6%.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose further in May

Consumer goods imports picked-up.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus rose higher in June

The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.9 billion in June.

ARGENTINA – Activity rebounds after downturn

Activity increased sequentially in May.

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in June

Tax collection fell by 4.2% yoy in real terms in the period, after dropping by 4.8% in 1Q24.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak

Manufacturing continues to trend down in May.

PERU – Another activity upside surprise in May

Primary sector was the main driver to the headline figure.

ARGENTINA – Inflation surprises to the downside

Consistent downside surprises to inflation, a stronger ARS, and weaker activity, we lowered our inflation forecast to 130% for YE24 (from 140%).

MEXICO – Industrial production rebounded in May

IP was driven by a strong expansion in construction.

PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP extended the pause

BCRP extended the pause.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the August meeting.

COLOMBIA – Gradual core disinflation to prevent a larger rate cut

Food prices surprised to the upside.

MEXICO – Headline inflation surprised to the upside

Core inflation eased further, a 25-bp rate cut is still on the table in August.

CHILE – Weak imports drive large trade surplus

Narrow CAD to continue.

CHILE – Consumer prices drop in June

Services inflation picks up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

BCCh Board set to tread carefully.

MEXICO – Internal demand was broadly in line

Private consumption weakened while GFI expanded at a decent pace.

PERU – Well-behaved inflation in June

Headline inflation remains within the target range of 2+/-1%.

CHILE – Activity posted a consecutive retreat

Several indicators support weaker activity dynamics.

CHILE – Public Finance

Interest payments rose by 50%.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Fiscal concerns eased following latest update.

ARGENTINA – Activity slump continued in April

Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at -3.0%, with downside risks.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience continued

Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in May

After an upbeat 1Q, activity is slowing.

CHILE – The unemployment rate fell again in May

However, we believe the labor market still has some slack.

CHILE – Credit: Persistent weakness in commercial loans raises risk of a slow recovery in investment

Consumer NPLs continue to expectedly decline.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a rate cut is back on the table

Our base scenario is for a rate cut of 25-bp in the next meeting.

MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May

Manufacturing exports posted a strong expansion, while non-energy imports weakened.

ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 1Q24

We forecast a current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP for 2024.

ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 1Q24

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at -3.0%.

MEXICO – 1H June inflation

We expect Banxico to pause at 11.00% this Thursday.

MEXICO – April’s monthly GDP weakened

The headline figure was dragged by the primary, industrial and services sectors.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened in April

Imports increased sequentially.

ARGENTINA – Wide trade surplus in May

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside

However, momentum remained soft.

MEXICO – Monetary policy preview

We expect cuts to resume later this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

A more cautious policy rate path ahead.

CHILE – An expected 25bp cut to 5.75%

Caution ahead as inflation to be revised up.

ARGENTINA – Large fiscal surplus in May

Our fiscal primary balance forecast stands at +0.5% of GDP for 2024.

MEXICO – Solid domestic demand in 1Q24

Domestic demand was driven by private consumption.

COLOMBIA – Fiscal deficit rises despite efforts

A challenging fiscal consolidation.

PERU – A surprisingly strong activity print

We expect GDP growth of 2.7% this year.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators post surprises

Despite weak demand, BanRep is expected to remain cautious.

CHILE – Electricity price readjustments

Electricity price hikes are expected to be relevant.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview: Down to 25

Short-term inflationary pressures will add a layer of MP caution.

PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP surprised again with a pause

We expect further rate cuts during the rest of the year.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation consolidates

We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 140% for YE24 (from 160% previously).

ARGENTINA – Habemus Law

The Senate’s approval of the Bases bill and fiscal reform is a positive step for the government.

COLOMBIA – Core disinflation process continued

We envisage BanRep’s easing cycle to continue at a gradual pace in the short-term.

MEXICO – Industrial production weakened in April

Industrial production momentum remained soft.

CHILE – Large trade surplus continued in May

Weakness of capital goods imports continued.

CHILE – Consumer prices rise above expectations

Services CPI gradually edges down.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The benefit of not surprising.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside

We expect a rate cut in June, but the new political landscape poses risks.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in April

Manufacturing and construction sectors recovered in April.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q24

Private consumption and GFI expanded at a decent pace in March.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit contained

Favorable CAD financing.

CHILE – A second consecutive Imacec retreat

Leading indicators suggest an activity improvement.

PERU – Another downside inflation surprise in May

The odds of another rate cut are increasing.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenues improved as spending spree continues

Spending remains unexpectedly strong.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate

Unemployment rate (SA) ticked up at the margin.

CHILE – Credit: NPLs appear to have stabilized

Consumer loans rise further.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in April

After an upbeat 1Q, activity momentum started to fade

CHILE – Unemployment rate continued to trend down in April

Labor slack persists, preventing demand-side inflationary pressures.

MEXICO – 1Q24 Inflation Report: another rate cut is likely

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the June meeting.

CHILE – An expected 50-bp cut to 6.0%

A consecutive 50bp cut cannot be ruled out in June.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 1Q24

Our 2024 GDP call for a contraction of 3.0% has downside risks, despite the normalization of the agriculture sector.

ARGENTINA – Trade balance surplus continued in April

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.

COLOMBIA – Trade balance improved in 1Q24

Imports fell sequentially in 1Q24.

CHILE – GDP rose sequentially in 1Q24

We still expect a 2.4% 2024 GDP growth, but with an upside bias.

CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 1Q24

Copper price dynamics will consolidate a sustainable-financed CAD scenario.

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in April

We continue to see a primary fiscal surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2024.

COLOMBIA – Gradual private consumption recovery continued in 1Q24

While investment increased at the margin, overall dynamics remain weak.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in March

Activity recovery remains fragile.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

Yearend inflation expectations tick up, fewer cuts seen this year.

ARGENTINA – Inflation fell into single digits in April

We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 160% for YE24 (from 180% previously).

CHILE – Public Finance: Medium-term headwinds persist

Near-term fiscal outlook somewhat better, primarily due to mining-related revenue.

COLOMBIA – Retail and manufacturing activity contracted in 1Q24

Manufacturing levels dropped from 4Q23.

MEXICO – Industrial production expanded in March

Still, IP momentum in 1Q24 was soft.

PERU – Monetary policy: Another 25-bp cut

Further policy rate reductions are limited given a narrowing of the rate differential.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

New forward guidance opens the door for a rate cut in the next meeting.

COLOMBIA – April disinflation in line

Core inflation continues to correct.

MEXICO – Mixed inflation results in April

Headline inflation was above market consensus, while core inflation was slightly below.

CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the upside

Tradable inflation starts to tick up.

CHILE – Financial Stability Report

Signaling a “neutral” level for the CCyB above the current 0.5% of RWAs.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April

Weak capital imports persist.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

A smaller negative output gap expected.

MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in February

Both – private consumption and GFI improved in February.

CHILE – A March retreat to conclude an upbeat 1Q24

Mining boosts activity in 1Q24.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue dynamics improved

Spending growth slowed

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in April

Headline inflation is inside the BCRP's 2+/-1% target range.

MEXICO – Below target nominal fiscal deficit

On a 12-month rolling basis, the nominal fiscal deficit widened.

COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting: Déjà Vu

Tighter global financial conditions prevent a larger cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rises in 1Q24

Growth of private salaried posts slows.

CHILE – Credit growth remains weak

Consumer NPLs fell at the margin.

CHILE – Slow but steady sectorial activity gains

We expect March Imacec to increase 0.9% YoY.

CHILE – Unemployment rate falls in 1Q24

Employment growth consolidates.

MEXICO – Soft flash GDP estimate in 1Q24

However, activity rebounded in February and likely in March.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H April

We expect Banxico to pause in May’s monetary policy meeting.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in February

We still maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024.

ARGENTINA – Delivering results an unprecedented fiscal surplus in 1Q24

The fiscal results of the administration are impressive so far, comfortably exceeding IMF targets.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the upside to the upside in February

An improvement in services sector and a strong primary output were the main drivers.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened slightly in February

Investment-related imports remain weak.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in February

The recovery in retail sales suggests strong fiscal spending is starting to show in the data.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data

We expect the BCCh step down the pace to 50-bp at the May meeting.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak

Widespread drag for retail sales.

PERU – Activity was above market expectations

Construction and mining supported activity.

ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in March

We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%.

MEXICO – Soft industrial production in February

Industrial production was dragged by construction output.

MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised

Easing of tourism related prices in 2H March exerted relevant downward pressure.

CHILE – Another positive trade surplus in March

We expect a manageable CAD of just below 4% this year.

CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the downside

Sequential services pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued

Core inflation continued to fall.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

Our base case remains for another rate cut in May.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

The correction of prior imbalances allows for further gradual rate cuts.

MEXICO – Weak internal demand in January

GFI lost momentum as private consumption is softening.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

An expected deceleration to 75bps.

PERU – Another upside inflation surprise

Further monetary easing is likely this year.

CHILE – Widespread sequential growth in February

Leading indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery.

CHILE – Public Finance: A challenging start

Revenues continue to disappoint.

CHILE – Labor market dynamics improved again in Feb

Private salaried job pull increases.

CHILE – Leap-year boost to activity in February

Activity continues to surprise positively at the margin.

MEXICO–2025 Preliminary Economic Policy Guidelines

Fiscal consolidation for 2025 will likely be challenging.

COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weaken in February

Unemployment rate is trending up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

We expect a year-end policy rate of 4.75%.

MEXICO – Smaller than expected trade deficit

Trade balance figures suggest an improvement in activity in February.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in January

We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024.

COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting

A cautious rate cut path is justified.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

Services and primary sectors were the main drags to activity.

MEXICO – Core inflation surprised to the upside

Tourism related prices was the main upside pressure to core inflation.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Further rate cuts will be data dependent.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Soft retail sales contrast with the frontloaded expansionary fiscal stance.

MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand in 4Q23

Private consumption expanded at a still favorable pace.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit fell further in Jan.

Imports continue to adjust.

CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside in 4Q23

Private consumption annual drag continues to ease.

CHILE – CAD narrows 5.1pp to 3.6% of GDP in 2023

Net-FDI funded CAD.

ARGENTINA – Another monthly fiscal surplus

We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024, below the official forecast of a surplus of 2.0% of GDP.

ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in February

Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks, despite the lower-than-expected February print.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in January

However, momentum remains soft.

CHILE – Another large upside surprise in inflation

Higher CPI to challenge rate cut pace.

PERU – Monetary policy: a surprise pause

Our end of year policy rate forecast of 5.00% has an upward bias.

COLOMBIA – Disinflation process continued in February

Disinflation process supports a larger rate cut in March.

CHILE – Weak imports support USD1.5bi trade surplus

We expect some CAD widening to around 4% this year.

MEXICO – Presidential Campaigns kick off

Claudia Sheinbaum leads the polls.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2023

The lowest annual CAD since 2010.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in February

Food & non-alcoholic beverages pushed prices up in the month.

CHILE – Large upside activity surprise in January

The strong start to the year likely offsets the weak close to 2023 And just to plans, the 2md chile that was scheduled for today will be published on Monday.

CHILE –Activity indicators surprised to the upside

Activity off to a strong start to the year.

MEXICO – 4Q23 Inflation Report

We still expect a 25-bp rate cut in March.

CHILE – Better than expected labor market data

We may have reached a turning point.

MEXICO – Greater than expected trade deficit in January

Manufacturing exports weakened in the first month of the year.

MEXICO – Narrow current account deficit in 2023

A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted by 1.6% in 2023

We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -2.5% for 2024.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Our base scenario is for a rate cut in March.

MEXICO – Activity slowed in 4Q23

Industrial production and primary sectors were the main drags to activity in 4Q23.

MEXICO – Downside inflation surprise in 1H February

Downside pressure came mainly from the reversal of agricultural prices.

MEXICO – Weak retail sales in December

Main private consumption determinants remain healthy.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus at the beginning of 2024

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation program starts

We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024.

COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected 0.6%

Weak investment persists.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in December.

GDP growth for 2023 reached -0.6%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

We expect the Board will continue with the 100bp rate cut pace in April.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation decelerated in January.

Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks.

COLOMBIA – Weak retail activity in December

Retail sales continued to trend down.

COLOMBIA – Gradual trade deficit narrowing in 2023

Weaker imports supported the trade deficit narrowing advance in 2023.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised again

Construction and manufacturing sectors dragged industrial production.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing to continue

Our end of year policy rate forecast is at 5.00%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Meeting

We expect the easing cycle to begin in March.

CHILE – Easing to continue despite upside inflation

Tradable pressures are elevated at the margin.

MEXICO – Headline inflation rebounded in January

Non-core inflation remained an important upside pressure.

COLOMBIA – No surprises in inflation in January

Inflationary pressure eases at the margin.

CHILE – Large trade surplus to start 2024

Consumer imports in line with a gradual consumption recovery.

MEXICO – Last minute reforms, in an election year

Most reforms are unlikely to be approved, but if approved could pressure fiscal accounts.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Public Finance: 2024 fiscal deficit revised even higher

A challenging fiscal backdrop.

MEXICO – Mixed internal demand indicators in November

Private consumption evolution remained resilient, while investment momentum weakened.

PERU – Inflation slowed further in January

Easing cycle to continue.

CHILE – Activity surprises to the downside in December.

Weaker carryover into 2024.

CHILE – Public Finance: Reality bites

Fiscal accounts deteriorated in line with our call.

CHILE – Activity indicators contracted in December

We expect December IMACEC to increase by 0.7% YoY, but risks are tilted to the downside.

MEXICO – Fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2023

An appreciated currency was a drag for oil and tax revenues.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: cut to 7.25%

We expect the BCCh to continue to swiftly cut rates in the short term.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: cuts by 25bps

Inflation dynamics will be key to the MP easing cycle.

COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weakened in 4Q23

The unemployment rate is trending up.

CHILE – Unemployment surprises to the downside

Annual job gains were widespread, but with a growing informality share.

MEXICO – Flash GDP surprised in 4Q23

Industrial output was the main drag to activity.

CHILE – What’s next in the pension reform discussion

We expect further adjustments in the Senate.

MEXICO – Greater trade surplus in December

The trade deficit stood at USD 5.5 billion for 2023.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP lost momentum in November

Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main drags to activity.

MEXICO – Upside headline inflation surprise

Volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index was the main upward pressure.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in November

We expect a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after an expected 1.5% contraction in 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit reached 2.9% of GDP

We expect a balance primary.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

We expect the easing cycle to continue with a 100bp rate cut to 7.25%.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing continued

Commodities continued to drag exports in November.

ARGENTINA – Large trade deficit in 2023

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million led by the recovery of the agriculture sector.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity indicators in November

Manufacturing continues to trend down.

PERU – Activity momentum remained soft in November

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -0.4%.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Further rate cuts are likely.

ARGENTINA – Inflation ended 2023 at 211%

Monthly inflation to rise by double digits in 1Q24.

MEXICO – IP surprised to the downside in November

Construction and manufacturing were the main drags.

COLOMBIA – A faster inflation fall to end 2023

Headline inflation fell to one-digit terrain.

MEXICO – Internal demand in October

Construction investment is still expanding at a solid pace.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside

The upside surprise was mainly driven by volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2023

Correction of external imbalances unfolded swiftly during 2023.

CHILE – Broad-based inflation fall to end 2023

Central Bank to continue easing.

CHILE – Public Finance: Our view on the 2024

Government plans on issuing USD16.5 billion, in line with our call.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Easing set to continue.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect the easing cycle to begin in March.

PERU – Annual Inflation fell further in December

Core inflation is now within the target range of 2+/1%.

CHILE – Activity grows above expectations

Mixed sentiment dynamics suggest only a moderate activity recovery ahead.

CHILE – Public Finance: Deficit widened further

Challenging 2023 fiscal forecasts.

CHILE – November IMACEC to rise by 0.6% YoY

Activity is recovering at the margin.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in November

Manufacturing exports momentum remain soft.

MEXICO – Activity cooled down in October

Still, monthly GDP momentum remains positive.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in October

We estimate a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after a 1.5% decline in 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in November

The effects of the stabilization package are expected to be reflected in the following prints.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H December

Non-core fruits & vegetables prices exerted upward pressure.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October

Falling imports signal downbeat internal demand.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

The core inflation convergence is unfolding more swiftly.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside

Still, momentum is slowing.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Global developments opened the door for a step up in pace of rate cuts.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

A gradual easing cycle process is expected.

MEXICO – Domestic demand slowed sequentially in 3Q

Gross fixed investment was the main driver of domestic demand.

CHILE – Constitutional Text is rejected again

Uncertainty to linger on.

COLOMBIA – Weak activity in October

After a weak 3Q23, activity dynamics continue to trend down.

ARGENTINA – GDP rebounded sequentially in 3Q23

The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%.

CHILE – December Monetary Policy Preview

Accelerating the pace to 75bps.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Our end of next year policy rate is at 5.00%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: still hawkish

A first rate cut is likely in 1Q24.

ARGENTINA – An ambitious stabilization plan

In our view, the announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation accelerated in November

We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in the coming months.

MEXICO – Industrial production in October

Construction is still the main driver of industrial production.

COLOMBIA – A slow disinflation process continued

Core inflation remained high and sticky at the margin.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in November

Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month.

CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in November

Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month.

COLOMBIA – CAD narrowed significantly in 3Q23

Financing of the CAD is favorable.

CHILE – Non-mining activity improves in October

As interest rates and inflation fall, the economy is expected to gradually recover.

CHILE – Public Finance: Expenditures increased

MoF’s annual fiscal target seems challenging.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment surprises to the downside

The unemployment continued to fall in October.

CHILE – Better-than-expected activity indicators

We expect a mild recovery ahead as interest rates and inflation fall.

CHILE – Unemployment rate rose sequentially

The gradual deterioration of the labor market should continue in the near term.

MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed further

A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.

MEXICO – Solid GDP in 3Q23

Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

All Board members seem open to discuss rate cuts early next year.

MEXICO – 1H November Inflation was broadly

Services inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace.

ARGENTINA – Sequential activity rebounded in 3Q23

We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in October

Our primary fiscal deficit projection for this year stands at 3.5% of GDP.

MEXICO – Retail sales momentum softened in 3Q23

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%.

CHILE – Another upside GDP surprise in 3Q23

The annual drag from private consumption continues to ease.

CHILE – CAD narrows by 1.2pp to 3.5% of GDP

Favorable FDI dynamics consolidate a more sustainable financing mix.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 3Q23

Weak imports points to further domestic demand softening ahead.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakens in 3Q23

Falling imports signal further consumption weakening ahead.

PERU – Activity surprised in September

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias.

COLOMBIA – Weak activity in 3Q23

Overall dynamics remained weak as tight monetary policy persists.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The BCCh insists it does not target the level of the CLP.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation eased in October

We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end.

MEXICO – Industrial production remains positive

Construction weakened in September.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Rate cuts will likely continue.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a dovish pause

We kept our call of the central bank beginning their easing cycle in May 2024.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in October

Services inflation remains elevated.

MEXICO – October inflation was broadly in line

Persistent services CPI likely to reinforce Banxico’s cautious tone on the disinflation outlook.

CHILE – Core consumer prices stable in October

Weak core inflationary pressures at the margin.

CHILE – Domestic demand supports another surplus

Contractionary monetary policy supporting BoP adjustment.

MEXICO – Internal demand indicators expanded

Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation forecast revised higher.

CHILE – A mining-led expansion in September

Activity should gradually recover sequentially in the coming months.

CHILE – Public Finance

Cumulative fiscal deficit widens.

PERU – Another large downside in October’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Easing likely to be pushed forward.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remain strong in 3Q23

The unemployment rate has continued to trend down.

CHILE – Sectorial surprised to the upside

We believe activity likely bottomed out.

CHILE – Better than expected labor data in Sep.

Labor market slack to increase.

MEXICO – Smaller fiscal deficits in 3Q23

Lower primary expenditures more than offset weaker revenues.

CHILE – October Monetary Policy Meeting preview

We expect a 75bps cut for October Monetary Policy Meeting.

ARGENTINA – Better-than-expected activity

Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023.

MEXICO – Headline CPI surprised to the downside

Lower volatile agricultural prices were the main downside pressure.

MEXICO – Activity momentum improved in August

Services and construction supported activity in the month.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in August

Imports fell again sequentially as domestic demand adjusts

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We see downside risks to our trade deficit forecast of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Retail sales softened in August

Real wage bill to continue supporting private consumption.

PERU – Weak activity momentum in August

Activity should gradually improve during the rest of the year.

COLOMBIA – Activity dynamics weakened in August

Contractionary monetary policy and elevated inflation help cool activity

ARGENTINA – Inflation posts a record in September

We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%.

MEXICO – MP meeting minutes with a hawkish bias

Higher odds of delaying the first rate cut.

MEXICO – Resilient industrial production in August

Construction expanded at a strong pace while manufacturing weakened

CHILE – Weak imports lead to trade surplus

CAD correction to continue.

COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued

Annual core inflation fell to one-digit.

MEXICO – Persistent services inflation

Banxico unlikely to start its easing cycle this year.

CHILE – An upside CPI surprise, led by volatiles

Core inflationary pressures are weakening at the margin.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Our end-of-year policy rate forecast stands at 6.75%.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in July

Gross Fixed Investment is driven by construction investment.

PERU – A downside surprise in September’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

CHILE – Widening of the fiscal deficit

Second consecutive real expenditure contraction.

CHILE – large negative IMACEC surprise in August

A gradual sequential improvement toward yearend is our base case.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

We view the October meeting as a 50-50 call for the beginning of an easing cycle with a 25-bp cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate continues to fall

Labor marklet loosening expected ahead.

CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics in August

We believe the activity cycle is bottoming out in 3Q23.

CHILE – Unemployment rate continues to rise

Weakening of the labor market is consolidating.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The Board expects a more gradual decline in inflation.

MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in August

Manufacturing exports deteriorated, dragged by vehicle sales.

ARGENTINA –Activity rebounded sequentially in July

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

We expect the economy to gradually slow during the rest of the year

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit improved temporarily

We forecast a primary deficit of 3.0% of GDP for this year, above the 1.9% deficit targeted for 2023 in the agreement with the IMF.

MEXICO – CPI broadly in line with consensus

Our 2023 yearend inflation forecast stands at 4.5%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Board is likely to be more sensitive to asset prices (rates, FX) in the next decisions.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We expect a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Positive momentum in July’s retail sales

The real wage bill, main determinant of private consumption, continued to grow at a solid pace.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July

Imports contracted as the domestic demand weakens.

ARGENTINA – Severe drought dragged activity in 2Q

We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%.

MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand expansion in 2Q

Domestic demand was mainly supported by gross fixed investment.

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in July

Activity indicators continue to lose momentum.

PERU – Activity deteriorated in July

The El Niño phenomenon likely to weigh on activity in 2H23.

PERU – Monetary policy: a hawkish start

BCRP: the decision does not necessarily imply further consecutive rate cuts

ARGENTINA – CB maintained the policy rate at 118%

Our monetary policy rate (Leliq) forecast stands at 145% for year-end.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply

The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly following the devaluation of the currency after the primary election.

MEXICO – 2024 fiscal budget: Higher fiscal deficit

2024 fiscal deficit revised up on higher spending and lower revenue.

MEXICO – Industrial production expanded further

Construction remains the main driver of industrial production.

COLOMBIA – Another large upside inflation surprise

Core inflation pressures are moderating.

CHILE – Widespread downside inflation surprise

We expect some payback in coming months along with increased pass-through pressures.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Risks to the scenario stem mostly from the global macro-financial situation.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

We are penciling in cuts of 75bps for the remaining meetings of the year (to 8%).

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows further

FDI financing of CAD continues to improve.

PERU – Upside CPI surprise in August

We still expect the central bank to begin an easing cycle this month.

CHILE – Strong non-mining activity in July

We foresee a further improvement in activity towards yearend.

COLOMBIA – Employment growth remains strong

Employment prospects remain upbeat.

CHILE – Activity dynamics remain weak in July

We expect activity to remain weak in the short term.

CHILE – Fiscal deficit deepened in July

2023 financing needs likely to increase.

MEXICO – 2Q23 Inflation Report

Odds of delaying rate cuts are increasing.

CHILE – Unemployment in July quarter

We expect a gradual loosening ahead.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in July

Strength in manufacturing exports likely to fade amid softer external demand.

MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed in 2Q23

Narrower energy goods trade deficit supported the improvement.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Odds increase of a delay in the beginning of the easing cycle.

MEXICO – 1H August CPI

Core services inflation still without a clear downward trend.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 2Q23

We maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened further in July

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the 1.9% target agreed with the IMF for 2023.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in line

We see downside risk to our USD 1 billion trade surplus forecast for this year.

CHILE – A smaller-than-expected GDP fall in 2Q23

Private Consumption has adjusted.

CHILE – Current account deficit narrows further

FDI dynamics support a more sustainable financing mix.

MEXICO – Upside surprise in June’s retail sales

The real wage bill is supporting private consumption.

COLOMBIA – The economy fell sequentially in 2Q23

The import and investment contractions reflect weaker domestic demand.

ARGENTINA – Further deterioration in inflation

The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 2Q23

Double-digit declines in imports persist.

PERU – Soft activity momentum in 2Q23

Harsh weather conditions and social conflicts curbed GDP in 1H23.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 2Q23

Softening domestic demand supports lower rates ahead.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Swifter CLP appreciation pass-through supported lower rate trajectory.

MEXICO – industrial production upside surprise

Solid construction sector growth supported industrial production.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The Board remains cautious on the disinflationary process.

COLOMBIA – CPI above consensus in July

Sequential core inflation pressures moderated further.

MEXICO – Lower inflation in July

We expect Banxico’s policy rate to remain on hold at 11.25% this week.

CHILE – Inflation falls 1.1pp to 6.5% in July

Swift disinflation process leaves door open for another 100bp rate cut.

CHILE – A lower-than-expected, trade surplus

The domestic demand adjustment, amid contractionary monetary policy is supporting a narrowing of external imbalances.

MEXICO – Investment supported internal demand

Construction investment expanded at a strong pace.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Scenario does not consider the materialization of an “El Niño” phenomenon.

PERU – Lower inflation in July

Higher odds of BCRP cutting its policy rate before 4Q23.

CHILE – Non-mining activity falls sequentially

In the short-term, we expect activity to remain weak, with activity bottoming out in 3Q23.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Rising risks that rate cuts unfold later this year.

COLOMBIA – Downside unemployment surprise in June

Private salaried jobs continued to drive employment dynamics.

CHILE – Mining rebound offsets core activity

Quarterly sequential activity dynamics weakened in 2Q.

CHILE – Real expenditure growth decelerated

Revenue contraction slowed materially, aided by base effects.

MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H23

A strong peso and lower oil prices are curbing fiscal revenues.

MEXICO – Another solid GDP expansion in 2Q23

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7% has an upward bias.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A larger than expected cut to begin the cycle.

CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside

The job creation subsidy is likely sustaining employment resilience.

MEXICO – Sequential activity slipped in May

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.

MEXICO – Bi-weekly inflation prints in line

We expect inflation to end the year at 4.5%.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 2Q23

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023 (1.9% of GDP).

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further in June

We recently revised our trade balance forecast down to a surplus of USD 1.0 billion for this year, due to the worse-than-expected deterioration of the external accounts.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in May

Imports fall as domestic demand adjusts.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell again in May

Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 led to the downward revision of our expectation for a contraction this year, from 4% to 3%.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in May

Activity momentum remained weak.

COLOMBIA – Activity slowdown continued in May

Activity indicators continued to lose momentum.

ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed in June

Given the high volatility, we recently lowered our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised

Construction sector rebounded, while manufacturing output deteriorated.

COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in June

Food prices are swiftly correcting, but El Niño risks loom.

CHILE – A larger-than-expected trade surplus

CAD correction to continue.

CHILE – Another large downside inflation surprise

Inflationary pressures at the margin are falling swiftly.

MEXICO – June CPI broadly in line

We expect rate cuts in 4Q23.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Board members are cautious of the disinflationary process.

CHILE – Monetary Policy meeting Minutes

Expect divided decisions ahead.

MEXICO – Internal demand momentum remains positive

Machinery & equipment investment is the main driver of GFI.

CHILE – Spending accelerates and Revenues fall

Spending pressures and weak revenues will test fiscal accounts this year.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in June

Downside pressure to the headline figure came mainly from lower food prices.

CHILE – Non-mining activity flat sequentially

Activity during 2Q23 will likely post a notable decline.

ARGENTINA – Activity declined in April

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The bar is high for rate cuts to occur this year.

COLOMBIA – Employment growth remained upbeat

Private and self-employment drive job creation.

ARGENTINA – Wide current account deficit in 1Q23

We forecast a current account deficit of 1.5% of GDP for 2023, but the risks are tilted to a wider deficit.

CHILE – Mining drags activity in May

Tight monetary policy and reduced household savings to sustain weak activity ahead.

CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside

The sequential improvement in the labor market is unlikely to persist.

MEXICO – Stable trade balance in May

Manufacturing exports’ positive momentum is unlikely to persist amid a softer external scenario.

MEXICO – Solid monthly GDP expansion in April

Services sector is the main driver of activity.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit was unchanged in May.

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, which is worse than the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023.

ARGENTINA – GDP expanded in 1Q23

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Rate cuts are unlikely before 4Q23.

MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised

Inflation figure is supportive of rate cuts in 4Q23.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened in May

We see downward risk to our trade balance forecast of a surplus of USD 3.5 billion for this year.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in April

Imports fall as domestic demand weakens.

MEXICO – Solid domestic demand expansion in 1Q23

Private sector was the main driver of domestic demand.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

A swifter disinflation path.

MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in April

Real wage bill, main private consumption determinant, remains resilient.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut

Better inflation readings are the missing piece to trigger more decisive monetary easing.

COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the downside

Activity is contracting from last year.

COLOMBIA – A challenging fiscal consolidation path

Government’s financing needs revised up.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in April

El Niño weather phenomenon curbs activity in April.

ARGENTINA – Inflation remains high

We recently raised our inflation forecast for this year to 175% from 125%, as we now expect a meaningful official real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

MEXICO – Soft industrial production momentum

Strong sequential expansion in manufacturing output in April is unlikely to last.

CHILE – A volatiles-led downside inflation surprise

Core inflation falling from high levels.

COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise

Core inflation has likely peaked.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in May

The lithium pull eases.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q23

GFI expansion is driven by machinery & equipment investment.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q23

CAD financing is healthy.

PERU – Annual inflation eased slightly in May

We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

None of the board members gave a clear indication of when will Banxico assess cutting rates.

CHILE – Core activity falls sequentially in April

Commerce activity trends down.

MEXICO – 1Q23 Inflation Report

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.25%.

CHILE – Fiscal spending accelerates

Fiscal dynamics tested by sharp rise in spending and falling revenues.

COLOMBIA – Sequential employment fall in April

Unemployment rate remains low.

CHILE – Weak April activity in spite of mining

Tight monetary policy will support activity adjustment.

CHILE – Unemployment surprisingly fell in April

Unemployment rate drop expected to be transitory.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

More information needed to evaluate the inflation trend.

MEXICO – Solid GDP expansion in 1Q23

Services sector was the main driver of GDP, curbed by manufacturing output.

MEXICO – Stable 4-quarter rolling current account

Remittances are slowly cooling down.

MEXICO – Trade balance deteriorated in April

Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.

MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H May

Downside surprise was driven mainly by the non-core index and slightly by core CPI.

ARGENTINA – Activity posted a sequential increase

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, larger than the target agreed with the IMF for 2023.

MEXICO – Positive retail sales momentum in 1Q23

Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, expanded at a solid pace.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in April underperformed

The trade balance is deteriorating rapidly.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: pause at 11.25%

Rate cuts are unlikely this year, in our view

CHILE – GDP contracts 0.6% yoy in 1Q23

Domestic demand remains a key drag to activity.

CHILE – A current account surplus in 1Q23

The CAD narrowing is unfolding swiftly.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit remained wide in 1Q23

Weak oil exports limits speed of CAD correction.

COLOMBIA – Strong growth in 1Q23

Core activity weakening in line with end of hiking cycle.

PERU – Weak activity momentum in 1Q23

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.

ARGENTINA – The CB increased reference rate

The monetary authority hiked the 28-day Leliq rate to 97% from 91%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Activity and inflation have involved in line with the IPoM scenario.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply in April

We see upside risk to our 125% inflation forecast for YE23.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 1Q23

High rates, weak sentiment and elevated policy uncertainty contributing to slowdown.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in March

Soft external demand is affecting industrial production.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April

Consumer goods imports continue to trend down.

CHILE – Indexation pressures core inflation in April

Inflation back in single-digits.

CHILE – Constitutional Council vote

There is the risk of a rejection to the proposed text in the plebiscite in December.

COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in April

Inflation has peaked, but the disinflation process will be slow.

MEXICO – Solid internal demand momentum in Feb

GFI strong expansion is supported mainly by machinery & equipment investment.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Output gap remains positive this year.

CHILE – Fiscal balance swings back to a deficit

Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts ahead.

CHILE – Another mining-led activity drop in March

Non-mining activity weakness will resume in 2Q23.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

We believe the tightening cycle likely ended.

COLOMBIA – Significant unemployment drop in 1Q23

Labor demand is likely to cool ahead.

CHILE – Mining-led activity weakness in March

Sequential contractions in mining would add downside risks.

CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp yoy in 1Q23

Private salary dynamics weaken.

MEXICO – Activity surprised to the upside in 1Q23

GDP expansion was driven by a strong services sector.

MEXICO – Better than expected trade balance

Still solid manufacturing exports and weak non-oil imports supported the trade surplus.

MEXICO – Soft sequential monthly GDP in February

Activity was dragged by manufacturing, construction and services sectors.

ARGENTINA – Activity remained flat in February

We forecast a 4% contraction this year, reflecting a harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

MEXICO – Inflation fell further in 1H April

Odds of Banxico pausing in May increased.

ARGENTINA – Wide trade deficit in March

We recently revised our trade balance forecast to a surplus of USD 4.5 billion for this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Core inflation is not declining and activity has not adjusted as expected.

MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February

Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, remains resilient.

PERU – Activity improved in February

Downside risk to activity remain amid harsh weather conditions.

ARGENTINA – Record high inflation in March

We expect another increase in the Leliq rate (currently at 78%) at the upcoming central bank meeting.

COLOMBIA – Weaker activity in February

Sequential dynamics deteriorating.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.

MEXICO – Solid Industrial production expansion

IP expansion was supported by mining, while construction and services sectors contracted.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 1Q23

Widespread export growth recorded during the 1Q23.

CHILE – High inflation in March

Core inflation rising at the margin.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

We now consider a more cautious cutting cycle that results in a yearend rate of 9.25% (8% previously).

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in Jan

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.

COLOMBIA – Unfavorable core inflation

Core pressures continue to rise at the margin.

MEXICO – Headline inflation fell

Our base case is for another 25-bp rate hike in May’s meeting.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A hawkish forward guidance was maintained.

MEXICO –2024 Preliminary Economic Policy Guideline

Debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to remain stable.

CHILE – Mining-led drag to activity in February

The gradual correction in economic activity is unfolding.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in March

BCRP will likely remain on hold throughout the year

CHILE – Small fiscal surplus in February

Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts this year.

COLOMBIA – Employment rose for the third month

Labor demand is likely to cool ahead due to the anticipated economic slowdown.

CHILE – Activity decline in February

Retail activity continues to fall sequentially, but at a slower rate.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, implying one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The tightening cycle likely ended or is near to its end.

CHILE – Unemployment rate ticks up in February

Public sector boosts job growth.

ARGENTINA – Soft rebound of activity in January

We forecast GDP -3.0% for 2023, with risks tilted downward due to a worse-than-expected drought in the agriculture sector.

ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 4Q22

We forecast a current account deficit of 0.4% of GDP for 2023.

MEXICO – Better-than-expected activity in January

We recently revised upward our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 1.3% in our previous scenario.

MEXICO – Solid retail sales growth in January

A still decent GDP expansion in 1Q23 is likely

ARGENTINA – GDP decreased in 4Q22

We recently revised our GDP forecast to -3.0% for 2023, from -1.5% before.

MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H March

The downside surprise was driven by the non-core CPI

MEXICO – Domestic demand expanded at a solid pace

Domestic demand was supported by a rebound in gross fixed investment

ARGENTINA –Trade surplus on falling imports in Fev

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a severe drought

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in February

We estimate that the 12-month-rolling primary deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP from 2.3% in December 2022.

CHILE – Economy slowed by more than anticipated

Private consumption is normalizing

CHILE – CAD narrows at the margin

A rising goods surplus is indicative of the domestic demand slowdown that is underway

COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit to start the year

A gradual narrowing of the external imbalance.

PERU – Activity deteriorated in January

Construction and mining sectors were the most affected.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics to start the 23

Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.

ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in Feb.

We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year, with upward risk.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside

Recent inflation evolution is supportive with slowing down the pace of rate hikes.

CHILE – CPI falls in February

Core inflation remains elevated at the margin.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February

Imports continue to trend down.

MEXICO – Internal demand ended on a strong note

Solid internal demand expansion is unlikely to last amid a softer external scenario.

COLOMBIA – Another large inflation increase

Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.

CHILE – Revenues jump start fiscal accounts

A surplus to start the year.

COLOMBIA – CAD narrows in 4Q yet remains wide

Slowing domestic demand will aid a CAD correction this year.

MEXICO – 4Q22 Inflation Report: cautious tone on

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, which implies two 25-bp rate hikes more.

CHILE – Another upside activity surprise in Jan.

Data points to a more gradual closing of the positive output gap than initially expected.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside

BCRP policy rate likely to remain unchanged in March’s meeting.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment exceeds expectations

Sequential employment gains fail to offset the labor force increase.

CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics to start the year

Activity excluding mining is still falling sharply on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

CHILE – Employment ticks up in January

Job gains pulled again by the formal sector.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in January

Manufacturing exports rebound is unlikely to last given a soft external scenario.

MEXICO – 2022 Current account deficit widened

High remittances mitigated the worsening of the trade goods balance.

MEXICO – GDP slowed in 4Q22

Manufacturing output was the main drag to sequential GDP growth.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in December

We now see downside risks to our -1.5% GDP growth forecast.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes in the March meeting.

MEXICO – Slight downside CPI surprise in 1H Feb.

Banxico will likely slow down the rate hike pace in March.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased in January

To reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 – as agreed to with the IMF – is challenging in our view.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in January

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe drought.

CHILE – MoF's fiscal projections for 2023

Growth revised down as fiscal impulse turns positive.

COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected

Higher rates and weak domestic sentiment point to an activity slowdown ahead.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in Dec

Protests during December likely had some impact on activity.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated in January

In the absence of consistent fiscal and monetary policies, price controls are unlikely to succeed in taming inflation.

COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit narrowing in 2022

Imports lose momentum.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Inflation convergence to rely significantly on the credibility of the Central Bank.

MEXICO – Industrial production upside in Dec.
A rebound in construction sector supported the expansion in industrial production.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 50-bp hike
We now expect a terminal policy rate of 11.50%.

MEXICO – Core inflation rebounded in January
One-off price adjustments pressured core inflation.

CHILE – Inflation starts with an upside surprise
Inertia and the full effect of the VAT on services should keep inflationary pressures elevated ahead.

MEXICO – Soft internal demand in November
Private consumption was the main drag to internal demand in the month.

CHILE – A large trade surplus to start the year
CAD correction expected ahead.

COLOMBIA – A large, but expected, CPI increase
Service pressures remain on the up.

PERU – Inflation rebounded in January
Inflation surprised to the downside, but it remains pressured.

CHILE – GDP grows 2.7% in 2022
The economy showed greater resilience during the latter part of 2022.

COLOMBIA – Employment falls sequentially in 4Q22
A notable rise in the minimum wage contribute to the weakening of the labor market.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Higher inflation expectations amid a strong indexation process.

CHILE – Fiscal dynamics
Downturn to stress the fiscal accounts.

CHILE – Activity ends 22 on a better-than-expected
Non-mining activity continued to fall at the margin in 4Q22.

MEXICO – Activity moderated in 4Q22
GDP growth in 2022 would stand preliminarily at 3.0%.

MEXICO – Below target fiscal balance in 2022
Deviation in the fiscal balance is explained by lower than estimated tax revenues.

CHILE – Unemployment rate closes 2022 at 7.9%
Labor market deterioration should help to correct macro imbalances.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp hike
The tightening cycle is close to concluding.

MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in 4Q22
Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Unanimous hold
The Board continues to signal a cautious approach.

ARGENTINA – New sequential decline in Activity
For 2023, we expect activity to contract by 1.5%, following an expansion of 5.5% in 2022.

MEXICO – Annual inflation rebounded in 1H Jan.
We expect Banxico to hike its policy rate by 25-bp in the February meeting.

ARGENTINA – 2022 Fiscal deficit outperforms targ
We believe that it will be challenging to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 due to the electoral cycle.

MEXICO – Retail sales weakened in November
Retail sales momentum is soft.

ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in December
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe draught.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrows in November
Consumption slowdown ahead will point to a further weakness in imports.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators moderated in Nov.
We expect the economy to slow to 0.6% in 2023.

PERU – Activity slowed in November
Activity momentum is also soft.

ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in December
The 12-month inflation reading came in at 94.8%.

MEXICO – Industrial production stagnated in Nov.
Manufacturing sector deteriorated, consistent with a soft external scenario.

MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in October
Gross fixed investment remains below the level at the beginning of the current administration.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in December
We expect a gradual CAD adjustment for this year.

MEXICO – Core inflation peaked in November
Inflation was broadly in line with market expectations.

CHILE – Inflation falls to 12.8% to close off 22
Inflationary pressures at the margin are easing.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
Our terminal policy rate forecast stands at 11.25%.

COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Inflationary pressures at the margin show no sign of easing.

CHILE – Mining-led 2.5% Imacec fall in November
The outlook for activity dynamics remain downbeat as business sentiment sits near lockdown levels.

CHILE – Weak activity data in November
The economic adjustment continues as the economy moves to more sustainable levels.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprises in Nov.
Employment softened at the margin.

CHILE – Massive fiscal adjustment continues
Real expenditures fall by 35.8% in November.

PERU – Still high inflation in December
We expect inflation to slow down to 3.7% by the end of this year.

CHILE – Gradual labor market loosening underway
Stalled labor force is preventing a higher unemployment rate.

MEXICO – Narrower than expected trade deficit
Manufacturing exports and non-oil imports weakened.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP stagnated in October
Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.9% for 2022.

MEXICO – Slight core inflation slowdown
We expect another 50-bp rate hike in first meeting of next year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Bolstering policy credibility a key factor behind the Board’s stance.

ARGENTINA – Sequential activity contraction
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast upward for 2022, to 5.5% from 4.2% in the previous scenario.

MEXICO – Domestic demand moderated in 3Q22
Private and private demand curbed domestic demand growth.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October
External imbalances yet to correct.

MEXICO – Decent retail sales expansion in October
Private consumption determinants are still supportive.

ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in November
Imports decelerated further, affected by controls.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
Rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.

ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in November
Consumer prices rose by 4.9% mom in November (from 6.3% in October).

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
We expect a policy terminal rate of 11.25%.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators mixed in October
A contractionary monetary policy and high inflation will likely dent consumption dynamics ahead.

PERU – Sequential activity deteriorated in Oct.
Activity momentum is soft.

CHILE – A New Constitutional Process takes Shape
Agreement lays the groundwork for a new constitutional process.

MEXICO – industrial production expansion in Oct.
Expansion was supported by construction sector, while manufacturing output grew at soft pace.

MEXICO – Core inflation tainted by black Friday
We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes to 50-bp in December.

CHILE – A small trade surplus in November
Imports slowdown ahead should help to correct external imbalances.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
Risks to the central bank scenario stem mainly from the external scenario.

CHILE – Inflation rebounds in November
Another large surprise to inflation.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
Awaiting the correction of the current macroeconomic imbalances before easing.

MEXICO – Slower internal demand expansion in3Q22
Gross fixed investment is dragged by construction investment.

COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Core pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Large current account deficit in 3Q22
Foreign direct investment eased from recent quarters.

CHILE – Fiscal revenues contract in October
Fiscal surplus expected this year.

CHILE – Gradual activity adjustment continues
GDP growth for this year will likely exceed our 2.3% call.

MEXICO – 3Q22 Inflation Report
Banxico increased their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 3.0% (from 2.2%) and 1.8% (from 1.6%), respectively.