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Latam | Economic Analysis

See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.

Macro Latam

  • Latam Talking Points Evening Edition

    This report is released every evening and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.

  • ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in June

    Tax collection fell by 4.2% yoy in real terms in the period, after dropping by 4.8% in 1Q24.

  • Latam Talking Points

    This report is released every morning and summarizes the main events that happened in LatAm during the day.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak

    Manufacturing continues to trend down in May.

  • PERU – Another activity upside surprise in May

    Primary sector was the main driver to the headline figure.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation surprises to the downside

    Consistent downside surprises to inflation, a stronger ARS, and weaker activity, we lowered our inflation forecast to 130% for YE24 (from 140%).

  • MEXICO – Industrial production rebounded in May

    IP was driven by a strong expansion in construction.

  • PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP extended the pause

    BCRP extended the pause.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes

    We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the August meeting.

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual core disinflation

    Food prices surprised to the upside.

  • MEXICO –Headline inflation surprised to the upside

    Core inflation eased further, a 25-bp rate cut is still on the table in August.

  • CHILE – Weak imports drive large trade surplus

    Narrow CAD to continue.

  • CHILE – Consumer prices drop in June

    Services inflation picks up.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    BCCh Board set to tread carefully.

  • MEXICO – Internal demand was broadly in line

    Private consumption weakened while GFI expanded at a decent pace.

  • PERU – Well-behaved inflation in June

    Headline inflation remains within the target range of 2+/-1%.

  • CHILE – Activity posted a consecutive retreat

    Several indicators support weaker activity dynamics.

  • CHILE – Public Finance

    Interest payments rose by 50%.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

    Fiscal concerns eased following latest update.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity slump continued in April

    Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at -3.0%, with downside risks.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience continued

    Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in May

    After an upbeat 1Q, activity is slowing.

  • CHILE – The unemployment rate fell again in May

    However, we believe the labor market still has some slack.

  • CHILE – Credit: Persistent weakness

    Consumer NPLs continue to expectedly decline

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

    Our base scenario is for a rate cut of 25-bp in the next meeting.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May

    Manufacturing exports posted a strong expansion, while non-energy imports weakened.

  • ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 1Q24

    We forecast a current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP for 2024.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 1Q24

    Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at -3.0%.

  • MEXICO – 1H June inflation

    We expect Banxico to pause at 11.00% this Thursday.

  • MEXICO – April’s monthly GDP weakened

    The headline figure was dragged by the primary, industrial and services sectors.

Scenario Review Mexico

  • Downshifting growth forecasts

    Our GDP growth estimate for 2024 is now at 1.6% (previously at 2.3%).

  • Sheinbaum’s landslide

    Higher odds of radical institutional changes.

  • Another pause is likely

    Our base scenario, considers a rate cut in June.

  • Start of the easing cycle

    We changed our call for a pause in May

  • Rate cuts are near

    Opening the door for rate cuts.

  • Non-core inflation strikes back 

    We expect a first rate cut in March.

  • Top themes for 2024

    Lower rates in an election year.

  • Fiscal expansion to drive growth in 2024

    A rate cut likely in 1Q24.

  • Easing cycle delayed further

    We now expect the easing cycle to begin in May.

  • High rates for longer

    Rate cuts postponed until next year.

  • Delaying the beginning of the easing cycle

    We now expect the first rate cut to take place in December.

  • 2023 GDP forecast revised even higher

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • Surprisingly resilient activity

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.7% (previously at 2.4%).

  • Rate cuts during 4Q23

    We now expect an end of year policy rate of 10.75%.

  • Additional rate hikes unlikely

    Policy rate likely to remain unchanged throughout the year at 11.25%

  • Hiking cycle is likely to end soon

    We expect one last 25-bp rate hike.

  • Another battle in the supreme court

    Better outlook this year, but worse the next.

  • More hikes to come

    Concerns on core inflation outlook increased.

  • More limits on the government’s agenda

    End of the hiking cycle is near.

  • Slowing the hiking pace

    About to end the tightening cycle?

  • Resilient activity, so far

    Higher rates ahead.

  • Weaker global outlook to weigh on activity

    We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% for next year.

  • Following the Fed in the short term

    We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.

  • Trouble in the neighborhood

    We now expect Banxico policy rate to end this year at 9.75%.

  • Keeping the pace despite weaker outlook

    We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (previously at 1.8%).

Scenario Review Chile

  • Approaching a pause

    Higher nominal rate path, but lower real rates.

  • Fine-tuning

    Uncertainty on electricity price adjustments risk higher inflation.

  • Nearing the last mile

    More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data.

  • Upside pressures

    Rate path revised up.

  • Upside pressure

    The CLP, recent inflation surprises, and the Fed pose challenges for BCCh.

  • Falling fast toward neutral

    A gradual sequential recovery in economic activity.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A faster-than-expected disinflation process supports swifter MP easing.

  • Easing continues

    Global developments permit swifter easing cycle.

  • A more gradual easing cycle

    Tighter global financial conditions have resulted in a slower easing cycle.

  • A more challenging external backdrop

    Raising the short end of the curve.

  • A more cautious cycle

    Pass-through pressures pose upside risks to the disinflation process.

  • A swifter easing cycle

    Real rates remain high despite cut.

  • Let the easing cycle begin

    We expect a 50-bp rate cut in July, but risks tilt to a larger adjustment.

  • Rate cuts about to start?

    We expect the June IPoM to open the door to a rate cut cycle.

  • In data-dependent mode

    We still expect the beginning of the easing cycle to occur in July

  • Postponing the awaited easing cycle

    Rate cuts now likely only in 3Q23.

  • A more gradual easing cycle ahead

    Caution rules for the Central Bank.

  • Not there yet

    Risks of cutting prematurely persist.

  • A year to correct imbalances

    Rates to remain unchanged in the near term.

  • Rate cuts unlikely to come soon

    A gradual activity correction underway.

  • A cycle ends, another one is not about to begin

    A gradual activity slowdown is underway.

  • Facing a tougher external environment

    A deterioration in global financial conditions would require a tighter monetary policy response.

  • More-moderate policies ahead

    Barring significant deviations from the updated central bank’s baseline scenario, the tightening cycle has likely ended.

  • End of tightening cycle postponed

    Plebiscite in sight, yet constitutional process is likely to continue.

  • A More Challenging Outlook

    A sharp exchange rate weakening, but global drivers keeps the central bank at bay.

  • Higher growth and inflation

    We expect a policy rate peak of 10%, before a rate-cut cycle is initiated during 2023.

  • Inflation peak postponed

    Inflation and rates revised higher.

Scenario Review Colombia

  • A weak fiscal revenue story

    Wider fiscal deficits in 2024 and 2025.

  • The shifting fiscal sands

    Fiscal challenges abound.

  • Gradual easing to continue

    Global financial conditions will play a key role in MP

  • Fast and furious?

    A more gradual easing cycle.

  • Easing to continue

    Growth revised down slightly.

  • Continuing the easing cycle with a 25bp cut

    A slow but steady disinflation path.

  • Top themes for 2024

    .

  • A gradual easing cycle is expected

    The size of the next cuts will be data dependent.

  • Easing cycle postponed

    High inflation and tight global financial conditions lead to higher scenario for rates.

  • Sticky inflation lowers October rate cut odds

    Sticky inflation leads to slower easing cycle.

  • Pressure to cut rates increases

    We still see rate cuts starting October but with a smaller 25bp adjustment.

  • Easing cycle penciled in for 4Q23

    Stronger COP supports lower inflation and earlier rate cuts.

  • In observation mode

    A challenging fiscal consolidation path.

  • Governability challenges increase

    With elevated inflation, rate cuts are not expected this year.

  • Political uncertainty and inflation constrain MP

    The tightening cycle likely ended

  • Signaling the end of the cycle

    Inflation and rates to stay high.

  • Uncertainty likely to remain high

    The hiking cycle is nearing its end.

  • Still waiting for an inflation peak

    Keeping rates high for longer.

  • Tightening cycle to continue

    Elevated inflationary pressures to lead to further tightening.

  • Revising activity and inflation upward

    Tightening cycle likely to conclude early next year, but rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.

  • Higher rates amid market rout

    Conflicting policy signals raised domestic financial market volatility.

  • Lower-than-expected hike, but further tightening

    Economic imbalances and global strengthening of USD would weigh on COP.

  • Rates going even higher

    Fiscal accounts to be stressed further.

  • Targeting additional revenue

    Rates going higher.

  • Petro elected president, broadens coalition

    Challenging task of keeping fiscal accounts in check while advocating for an ambitious social spending program.

  • The presidency takes a turn to the unknown

    With uptrending core inflation, robust economic activity and a widening of external imbalances.

  • Higher growth forecasts as presidential election

    Growth revised higher, while inflation pressures persist.

  • Left wing gains ground in a divided Congress

    Despite rising inflationary pressures, the Central Bank is unwilling to accelerate the pace of monetary policy tightening.

Scenario Review Argentina

  • Reforms for a post-stabilization recovery

    The approval of the “Bases” bill and the fiscal package should be a turning point in the administration’s efforts to stabilize and deregulate the economy, foster investment, and gradually improve the fiscal accounts.

  • Macro adjustments continue

    Waiting for a recovery in activity.

  • Delivering results

    A more benign outlook for nominal variables.

  • So far, so good, from a macroeconomic perspective

    Stronger ARS, Lower Rates and Primary Fiscal Surplus.

  • Stabilization program yields 1st positive results

    The stabilization program has begun to yield positive initial dividends.

  • First steps in a long journey

    Our scenario assumes the success of a stabilization program, but implementation risks are still high.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A challenging fiscal consolidation in 2024.

  • New government with a stabilization program ahead

    The announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

  • Runoff approaches as adjustment countdown ticks

    All eyes on the November 19 runoff.

  • Macro imbalances increase as elections loom

    Libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei leads voting intentions for October.

  • A rude awakening

    Polls show that Milei’s momentum has increased since the primaries.

  • A fragile economy heads into elections

    The PASO primaries on August 13 will determine the presidential candidates, reveal the voting preferences for each coalition.

  • Macro fragility persists with elections

    Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 has led us to expect a smaller contraction this year of 3% (previously - 4%). In a context of high volatility, we cut our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

  • Lower reserves and less time

    We now expect a meaningful real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

  • A peso under siege

    The depletion of international reserves led to an increase in devaluation expectations for the official exchange rate.

  • An even more fragile economy

    We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast again, to -4.0% from -3.0%.

  • Drought to take a toll on activity

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2023 down to -3% from -1.5%.

  • No inflation respite

    We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year.

  • The year has gone, but the challenges remain

    The country needs to address many macro imbalances to improve growth prospects.

  • Extending the multiple exchange rates regime

    In any case, the pressure on international reserves will remain.

  • Reserves resume a declining trend

    The government launched a new battery of controls to preserve the level of international reserves.

  • Decision time for spring

    The increase of international reserves is a positive step, but we note that the balance of payments remains unsustainable.

  • Lights and shadows

    The government announced a temporary weaker exchange rate for soy producers, in order to increase international reserves.

  • The great hope?

    Sergio Massa, former president of the lower chamber and a key politician of the ruling Frente de Todos.

  • New turmoil

    We see increased risks of lower activity and higher inflation as internal political tensions.

  • Will you miss me?

    Argentina risks missing the targets agreed to with the IMF.

  • Hard to Adjust

    Inflation and inflation expectations deteriorated markedly in the face of growing political tensions amid the ruling coaliti.

  • Jumping through hurdles

    We maintain our base scenario of high inflation and modest growth.

Scenario Review Peru

  • A faster recovery

    We now expect a 2024 GDP growth of 3.1%.

  • Further rate cuts are likely

    Our end of year policy rate is now at 5.00%.

  • Slower fiscal consolidation

    Still, fiscal accounts remain solid.

  • BCRP surprises again

    Further easing is likely.

  • Limits to monetary easing

    A temporary pause.

  • A transitory fiscal miss

    Weak revenues dragged the fiscal balance.

  • Top themes for 2024

    Challenging rebound.

  • Resurgence of political turmoil

    Weak activity amid falling inflation to keep the easing cycle going.

  • Soft activity rebound

    We reduced our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 0.2%.

  • No respite for activity

    We now expect GDP growth of 0.5% this year.

  • Softer activity rebound in 2024

    El niño curbs activity rebound in 2024.

  • Earlier easing

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • El Niño increases downside risks to activity

    Below-potential growth

  • Supply shocks curb activity outlook

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast is now at 1.4%.

  • Another year of weak growth

    Harsh weather and social unrest curb activity.

  • Harsh weather is yet another economic headwind

    Confrontation continues amid political deadlock.

  • Early elections is still likely

    Congress fails to agree on moving elections forward.

  • Political gridlock

    Congress rejected several proposals to bring forward general elections.

  • Early elections likely

    Solid macro fundamentals help to mitigate uncertainty from political turmoil.

  • Another president bites the dust

    Political turmoil persist.

  • Executive power is still under siege

    Another presidential vacancy attempt.

  • Below potential growth

    A weaker global outlook , lower terms of trade and persistent political uncertainty are headwinds for activity.

  • Solid fiscal accounts mitigate uncertainty

    Optimistic MoF’s GDP growth assumptions are a downside risk to fiscal accounts.

  • More political volatility

    Our inflation forecast is now at 7.5%.

  • Lower copper prices are setback for the economy

    Political turmoil persists.

  • GDP outlook deteriorates

    We lowered our GDP growth forecast to 3.0% (from 3.5% in our previous scenario).

  • Uncertainty heightens

    Castillo intends to establish a constituent assembly.

  • Ongoing political turmoil

    Castillo survived a second ousting attempt from Congress amid social unrest.

Macro Scenario Latam

  • Paraguay | July 2024

    Raising growth.

  • Uruguay | July 2024

    Activity improving as elections loom

  • Paraguay | June, 2024

    No more room for rate cuts this year

  • Uruguay | June, 2024

    Primary elections will take place on June 30.

  • Paraguay | May, 2024

    No more rate cuts in the near term, with an eye on inflation.

  • Uruguay | May, 2024

    The presidential race begins as risks from a plebiscite loom.

  • Paraguay | April, 2024

    We now expect a pause in the easing cycle

  • Uruguay | April, 2024

    Sweet spot: Higher growth and lower inflation

  • Uruguay | March, 2024

    No more rate cuts for now.

  • Paraguay | March, 2024

    Easing likely to continue in the near term.

  • Paraguay | February, 2024

    Volatility in global financial markets increases the odds of a pause.

  • Uruguay | February, 2024

    GDP growth to recover in 2024 after the drought.

  • Paraguay | December, 2023

    Further rate cuts ahead.

  • Uruguay | December, 2023

    Further easing in 2024 will depend on a durable reduction of inflation expectations.

  • Uruguay | November, 2023

    We still expect just one more rate cut at the upcoming meeting, leading to a terminal rate of 9.25%.

  • Paraguay | November, 2023

    Rate cuts to end earlier than expected.

  • Uruguay | October, 2023

    We foresee one more rate cut this year.

  • Paraguay | October, 2023

    We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 5.6%.

  • Paraguay | September, 2023

    Lower rates ahead.

  • Uruguay | August, 2023

    We expect lower inflation and rates this year.

  • Paraguay | August, 2023

    Lower inflation leads to sooner easing.

  • Paraguay | July, 2023

    Better activity and inflation outlook for 2023.

  • Uruguay | July, 2023

    Lower inflation opens room for an even lower policy rate.

  • Paraguay | June, 2023

    Challenging fiscal consolidation.

  • Uruguay | June, 2023

    Stronger UYU helps disinflation.

  • Uruguay | May, 2023

    We still see the monetary policy rate at 10.50% by the end of the year.

  • Paraguay | May, 2023

    Santiago Peña won the election and will be the next president for five years.

  • Uruguay | April, 2023

    We now expect the policy rate for end of this year at 10.50% (previously we projected it at 11.00%).

  • Paraguay | April, 2023

    We forecast 4.5% inflation and a monetary policy rate of 7.0% for YE23.

Macro Vision

  • COLOMBIA – Public Finance: Revenue blues

    Testing the limits of the fiscal rule.

  • CHILE – Consumption non-performing loans

    Consumption NPLs are projected to gradually decline.

  • CHILE – An update on Chile’s fiscal dynamics

    Financing needs remain elevated.

  • MEXICO – A challenging fiscal outlook

    Social programs are likely to make fiscal consolidation hard.

  • CHILE – Retail Sales: The only way is up! right?

    Retail sales to support gradual private consumption-led recovery in 2024.

  • CHILE – Inflation expectations

    Inflation expectations play a fundamental role in inflation targeting regimes.

  • CHILE – CLP dynamics: The sky’s the limit?

    CLP pressure expected to ease ahead.

  • Synchrony between neighbors: inflation surprises

    When a monthly consumer inflation reading in one country in the region delivers a surprise, inflation results in other countries tend to show deviation in the same direction.

  • CHILE – An Assessment of Fiscal Dynamics into 2024

    Tax reforms and adjustments to the fiscal framework to continue in 2024.

  • MEXICO – An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE – A primer on the draft constitutional text

    All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • MEXICO - Evaluating the nearshoring moment

    Higher potential GDP growth is likely if nearshoring materializes.

  • CHILE - Assessing the disinflationary process

    CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA -An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

  • CHILE –An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 23

    MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.

  • CHILE – Assessing the easing cycle ahead

    We use Taylor Rule models to assess the central bank’s reaction function.

  • MEXICO – An early look at 2024 Elections

    Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.

  • MEXICO –Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation

    Rate cuts are unlikely this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trip Notes

    Our views on potential policy changes after this year's elections.

  • Roadmap of Chile’s Constitutional process

    The new process should conclude this year.

  • CHILE: Fiscal policy expansionary stance in 2023

    Transitory improvement of fiscal accounts, as growth headwinds mount.

  • CHILE: Temporary relief in fiscal accounts

    Transitory fiscal relief as headwinds mount.

  • COLOMBIA: A Primer on the Presidential Election

    An election unfolding amid dissatisfaction with the status quo.

  • CHILE: An assessment of fiscal dynamics

    We expect the incoming administration to face pressure to loosen the fiscal consolidation path set out in the 2022 budget.

  • CHILE: A deeper look at the economic program

    The president’s economic team will play a key role in negotiating the breadth, depth and timing of the ambitious structural.

  • What’s next in Chile’s Constitutional Process?

    Chile is in the process of drafting a new Constitutional text.

  • A look at Chile’s upcoming elections

    Polarizing election to keep uncertainty elevated.

  • Challenging fiscal consolidation for Chile in 22

    The fiscal consolidation strategy outlined in Chile’s budget bill for 2022 is ambitious.

  • An overview of Chile’s government dollar sales

    The MoF is likely to auction roughly an additional USD 9 billion during September-December 2021.

Escenario Macro Latam en español

  • Colombia | Julio, 2024

    Mayores déficits fiscales en 2024 y 2025.

  • Chile | Julio, 2024

    Senda de tasas nominales más altas, pero tasas reales más bajas

  • Paraguay | Julio, 2024

    Mayor crecimiento

  • Uruguay | Julio, 2024

    Mejora la actividad ante la proximidad de las elecciones

  • Paraguay | Junio, 2024

    Sin margen para recortes de tasas este año.

  • Uruguay | Junio, 2024

    Las elecciones primarias tendrán lugar el 30 de junio.

  • Colombia | Junio, 2024

    Abundan los retos fiscales.

  • Chile | Junio, 2024

    Incertidumbre sobre los reajustes en los precios de electricidad amenazan con aumentar la inflación.

  • Uruguay | Mayo, 2024

    La carrera presidencial comienza mientras se filtran los riesgos de un plebiscito.

  • Paraguay | Mayo, 2024

    No más recortes de tasas a corto plazo, con la vista puesta en la inflación.

  • Chile | Mayo, 2024

    Siguen los recortes, cuya magnitud dependerá de la evolución de los datos.

  • Colombia | Mayo, 2024

    Las condiciones financieras mundiales desempeñarán un papel clave en la TPM.

  • Uruguay | Abril, 2024

    El punto ideal: Mayor crecimiento y menor inflación

  • Paraguay | Abril, 2024

    Ahora esperamos una pausa en el ciclo de flexibilización

  • Colombia | Abril, 2024

    Ahora esperamos que el BanRep lleve la tasa de política monetaria a 8,75% para fin de año (+50pb desde marzo).

  • Chile | Abril, 2024

    Con todo, la inflación por encima de la meta, junto a una postura más cautelosa de la Fed nos llevan a esperar recortes de 50 y 25pb de aquí en adelante hasta que la tasa de política alcance el 5,25% a fin de año.

  • Uruguay | Marzo, 2024

    No más recortes de tasas por ahora.

  • Paraguay | Marzo, 2024

    La flexibilización monetaria continuará en el corto plazo.

  • Colombia | Febrero, 2024

    Crecimiento revisado ligeramente a la baja.

  • Chile | Marzo, 2024

    Menos recortes de tasa este año.

  • Uruguay | Febrero, 2024

    El crecimiento del PIB se recuperará en 2024 tras la sequía.

  • Paraguay | Febrero, 2024

    La volatilidad en los mercados financieros globales aumenta las probabilidades de una pausa

  • Colombia | Marzo, 2024

    Es probable que continúe el proceso de desinflación gradual.

  • Chile | Febrero , 2024

    Mayor incertidumbre en las perspectivas inflacionarias.

  • Chile | Enero, 2024

    Rápida caída de la inflación facilita mayores bajas de tasas

  • Colombia| Enero, 2024

    Crecimiento moderado en 2024, pero persisten riesgos

  • Chile | Diciembre, 2023

    Esperamos que la TPM se acerque hacia niveles neutrales en 2024

  • Uruguay | Noviembre, 2023

    Seguimos esperando un solo recorte más de tasas en la próxima reunión, lo que llevaría a una tasa terminal del 9,25%.

  • Paraguay | Noviembre, 2023

    Los recortes de tasas finalizarán antes de lo esperado.

  • Colombia | Noviembre, 2023

    La elevada inflación y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras mundiales conducen a un escenario de tasas más altas.

History - Macro Latam