Latam | Economic Analysis

ARGENTINA –  Fiscal surplus in 1Q26

Our 2026 primary surplus forecast stands at 1.5% of GDP, in line with the official target outlined in the 2026 Budget.

ARGENTINA –Trade balance outlook more constructive

We recently raised our 2026 trade surplus forecast to USD 14 billion, from USD 10 billion previously, reflecting higher international oil prices and more favorable prospects for the soybean harvest.

PERU – Activity Beats Expectations in February

The February reading implies a healthy growth carryover

ARGENTINA – Inflation surprises to the upside

Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 27.5%, below 31.5% recorded in 2025.

MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak

We forecast a 0.3% QoQ GDP contraction in 1Q26.

PERU – BCRP holds the policy rate at 4.25%

 Policy rate below the neutral level.

COLOMBIA – Higher-than-expected inflation jump

Amid high services inflation, core dynamics accelerated at the margin.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and Construction

We forecast 2026 GDP growth of 3.5%, supported by an improving investment outlook and a favorable statistical carryover.

MEXICO – Banxico Minutes

 We continue to expect a terminal rate of 6.5% in 2026.

URUGUAY – IDAT-UY: March 2026

In 1Q26, sectoral dynamics were mixed, with services accelerating and goods decelerating.

MEXICO – Inflation relief in the 2H March

We continue to expect a terminal rate of 6.5% in 2026.

CHILE – March CPI lifted by fuels and education

Core pressures remain contained, for now.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 1Q26

Fuel imports start to rise.

PARAGUAY – March CPI above expectations

We continue to expect inflation to close the year at 3.5%, broadly in line with the BCP’s target.

MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in January

We forecast 2026 GDP growth at 1.5% YoY.

MEXICO – 2027 Economic Policy Guidelines

The debt ratio is now expected to rise further (55.0% of GDP vs 52.3%) in 2027, pointing to a slower stabilization trajectory.

PERU – Inflation prints a sizable upside surprise

Sequential inflation pressures have intensified.

CHILE – Activity confirms a weak year start

Latest data reinforce the downside bias to our growth forecasts.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tighter global financial conditions to weigh on growth.

COLOMBIA – BanRep hikes by another 100bps

Institutional tensions dominated market attention.

CHILE – Retail Resilience

Momentum cooling across sectors.

MEXICO – Fiscal risks rising in February

Real revenues contracted by 7.2% YoY.

COLOMBIA – The labor market remains tight

Private and public salaried positions were the main job creators.

CHILE – Labor market dynamics remain weak

Stagnant employment levels.

MEXICO – Trade deficit widened in February

Manufacturing exports strong, deficit persists.

PARAGUAY – Solid GDP growth of 6.6% in 2025

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.0%.

MEXICO – Strong wage dynamics

We forecast an unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2026.

ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially

We forecast GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, underpinned by a firmer outlook for investment, alongside a favorable statistical carryover.

MEXICO – Board cut to 6.75%, one more to go

The end to the rate-cutting cycle is near.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report (IPoM)

Monetary policy strategy shifts to a meeting-by-meeting approach.

CHILE – No other option but to stay on guard

policy firmly in wait-and-see mode

URUGUAY – Activity expanded sequentially in 4Q25

Our 2026 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.5%, but now with downside risks stemming from a weak statistical carryover (-0.1%), softer early year leading indicators, and the likelihood of the drought impacting the soybean harvest.

CHILE – Jump in oil prices

A sudden inflation spike

MEXICO – Surprise in January’s Monthly GDP

We maintain our forecast of a GDP expansion of 1.5% this year.

MEXICO – Inflation surprise driven by vegetables

We continue to expect a terminal rate of 6.5% in 2026.

MEXICO – Positive Retail Sales Surprise in January

We forecast a GDP expansion of 1.5% in 2026.

ARGENTINA – GDP posts sequential growth in 4Q25

We forecast GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, underpinned by a firmer outlook for investment and private consumption, alongside a favorable statistical carryover.

PARAGUAY – BCP pauses the easing cycle

We see no further rate cuts in the near term

ARGENTINA – February trade surplus

We maintain our 2026 trade surplus forecast at USD 10.0 billion, but risks are skewed to the upside.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in January

Consumer goods continue to drive import growth.

CHILE – Another low CAD in 2025

A terms-of-trade surge closed the year.

CHILE – National Accounts, softer start to 2026

Statistical carry-over for 2026 is a mere 0.4%.

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in February

Our 2026 primary surplus forecast stands at 1.5% of GDP, in line with the official forecast presented in the 2026 Budget.

COLOMBIA – Sequential activity gains in January

Manufacturing remains a drag on growth

PERU – Activity rose sequentially in January

Leading indicators point to continued solid growth momentum

CHILE – National Reconstruction Bill

Split Congress will require concessions.

MEXICO – Manufacturing drags industrial production

We forecast a 1.5% YoY GDP expansion in 2026.

PERU – BCRP holds the Monetary Policy Rate again

Policy rate already close to neutral

ARGENTINA – Sticky inflation in February

We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process in 2026, with prices expected to reach 23.5% by December, down from 31.5% in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Fiscal consolidation

Lower primary spending and interest payments drive the fiscal adjustment.

URUGUAY – IDAT-UY: February 2026

The IDAT-UY rose by 2.5% YoY in February in real terms, taking growth in the quarter ending in February to 5.5% YoY (7.1% in 4Q25).

CHILE – Another large trade surplus

Oil spike to dent trade dynamics ahead

MEXICO – Non-core upside surprise in February

We anticipate a 25bp cut in March 26.

COLOMBIA – Core inflation accelerates in February

Services rebound, while energy prices continue to decline, for now.

CHILE – February CPI keeps March rate cut live

Low sequential pressures, for now.

MEXICO – Domestic demand held up

We forecast 2026 GDP growth at 1.5% YoY.

URUGUAY – The BCU cut the policy rate 75-bps

Our terminal rate forecast stands at 5.50% for YE26, assuming one more additional cut in the next meeting scheduled for 21 April.

URUGUAY – Annual inflation hit a historical low

Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 4.5%, in line with the central bank's target, implying a rebound later in the year..

PARAGUAY – Another benign inflation

We foresee inflation ending the year at 3.5%, in line with the central bank’s target range.

CHILE – Public Finance

Liquid assets are still at low levels.

MEXICO – Fiscal revenues

Real revenues increased by 10.2% YoY

CHILE – Weak activity to start the year

Subdued credit dynamics

PERU – February inflation

Sequential price pressures are rising

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate

Private and public salaried positions were the main job creators.

CHILE – Upside unemployment surprise to start 2026

labor market dynamics mirror the soft activity patch

CHILE – Sectorial activity surprised in January

January data suggests that marginal momentum is softening

MEXICO – January Unemployment rate

Labor market remains tight, even as economic activity is growing below potential.

ARGENTINA – Activity rose 4.4% in 2025

For 2026, we expect a slowdown to 3.5%, partly due to a lower carryover

MEXICO – Annual inflation continued to rise

Core CPI measures continue to demand further cautious.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

Support for the Milei administration remains high despite the slight drop.

MEXICO – GDP expanded 0.6% in 2025

National Accounts data reflect somewhat stronger momentum at the margin

PARAGUAY – The BCP cut the policy rate by 25 bps

We expect a further 25 basis point cut at the next monetary policy meeting on 20 March.

PERU – Solid growth in 2025

We project GDP growth of 2.9% for the year, with upside risks.

MEXICO – Banxico Minutes

Board maintains its implicit intention to continue lowering rates.

ARGENTINA – Public Finance: A fiscal surplus

Our 2026 primary surplus forecast stands at 1.5% of GDP

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 2025

Strong domestic demand continues to fuel imports

COLOMBIA – Growth disappoints at the close of 2025

Public consumption remains a growth driver, but investment is weak

COLOMBIA – Minimum wage hike suspended

The State Council requested the government issue a new transitional decree

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data to end 2025

The pace of sequential retail sales growth remains elevated, but is gradually slowing.

PERU – BCRP holds at 4.25% again

The Central Bank’s policy stance is currently near neutral.

URUGUAY – January IDAT–UY Report

Our index rose by 1.2% MoM/SA in January.

MEXICO – 4Q25 Industrial production

Our forecast considers a gradual improvement in economic activity this year in Mexico.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates

We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process during 2026 (20.0% by December) given our forecast for a stable ARS in real terms.

MEXICO – Inflation edged up in January

January inflation was contaminated by excise taxes and tariffs

CHILE – A large trade surplus to start the year

Expecting another year with a small CAD

COLOMBIA – Inflation jumps in January

After the minimum wage announcement, service prices rebounded.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

We see downside risks to our 4.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025 given weaker construction and manufacturing data in 4Q25

CHILE – Inflation drops below the 3% in January

core dynamics still merit caution

COLOMBIA – Public Finance: 2026 Fiscal Plan

The 2026 nominal fiscal deficit is projected to decline, but the primary deficit will remain elevated.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Meeting

Board continues to envision rate cuts ahead, once conditions allow.

MEXICO – Domestic demand surprised in November

Investment remains subdued.

URUGUAY – Annual inflation eased in January

Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 4.5%, in line with the central bank's target.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation forecasts were revised up materially, returning to the target range in 2027

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

A cut ahead, followed by caution

PARAGUAY – Annual inflation eases

We foresee inflation reaching 3.5% by YE26, which is in line with the central bank’s target range.

PERU – CPI rose 0.1% in January

Sequential price pressures remain contained.

CHILE – Another fiscal relapse in 2025

Sizable spending cuts needed to balance the books

CHILE – Upside activity surprise in December

2026 carryover of 0.3%

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
CPI revised up following the significant minimum wage increase

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate

Improving employment dynamics boosted by services.

MEXICO – 4Q GDP surprised to the upside

A more favorable outlook for economic momentum

CHILE – Weak activity indicators

Mining activity continues to struggle

CHILE – Unemployment rate down to 8.0%

A gradual labor market improvement expected ahead

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A dovish twist

MEXICO – 2025 trade surplus

An investment recovery is not in the cards in 2026.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

Support for the Milei administration remains high despite the recent drop.

URUGUAY – The BCU brings forward the next decision

Our terminal rate forecast stands at 6.50%, assuming that inflation and inflation expectations will converge toward the target.

MEXICO – Labor market remained tight

Even though activity has been weak.

PARAGUAY – The BCP surprises with a 25-bps cut

The cut surprised us and market consensus, which anticipated an on-hold decision.

COLOMBIA – Activity remained solid in November

Retail sales were still strong in November.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

Sentence: The gradual recovery in economic activity will be challenging  

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in November

Import growth remains solid at the margin.

MEXICO – Another downside surprise in 1H Jan26 CPI

We expect Banxico to keep rates at 7% at its February meeting.

ARGENTINA – Softer activity by the end of 2025

Despite the weaker activity data for 4Q25, we still forecast 4.5% GDP growth for 2025.

ARGENTINA – USD 11.3 billion trade surplus

Our 2026 trade surplus forecast stands at USD 10.0 billion. 

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in 2025

Our primary surplus forecast for 2026 stands at 1.5% of GDP, in line with the official 2026 Budget forecast.

PERU – Activity was weaker than expected

We expect GDP to grow 3.2% in 2025

MEXICO – Mixed results in October Domestic Demand

Resilient Consumption amid weak Investment.

URUGUAY – December IDAT–UY Report

Mixed signals in seasonally adjusted terms in both goods and services.

ARGENTINA – Inflation fell significantly to 31.5%

We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process during 2026 (20.0% by December) given our forecast for a stable ARS in real terms.

MEXICO – Upside surprise in Industrial Production

Today’s data shows continued signs of gradual recovery.

COLOMBIA – Core inflation increased in December

Lower-than-expected headline inflation in December

PERU – BCRP maintained the policy rate at 4.25%

Policy rate close to neutral

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing & construction down

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 4.5% despite weaker construction and manufacturing data in November.

MEXICO – Inflation ends 2025 in Banxico’s range

We maintain our call of a 25bp cut in February.

CHILE – Inflation ends 2025 at 3.5%

Inflation converging to the target

CHILE – Another large surplus

Mining exports boost trade balance

URUGUAY – Inflation ends 2025 below the target

Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 4.5%, in line with the central bank's target.

VENEZUELA – Limited short-term spillover

Oil output unlikely to increase in the near term

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

What is the rush?

CHILE – Fiscal dynamics should improve in 2026

Copper prices to boost revenues.

PERU – Inflation ended 2025 at 1.5%

Sequential price pressures remain contained.

CHILE – Activity was softer than expected

Gradual deceleration in services demands attention

CHILE – Sectoral activity weaker than expected

Commerce activity remains resilient at the margin

COLOMBIA – The labor market continued to tighten

Sentence: unemployment fell to a new record low

PARAGUAY – A benign inflation print

We expect inflation to remain within the central bank's target (3.5% +/- 2%) during 2026 and forecast 3.5% by the end of the year.

COLOMBIA – Minimum wage rises substantially

BanRep to respond accordingly

CHILE – Unemployment rate surprised to the upside

Labor market recovery may take some time

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

Congressional approval of the 2026 Budget marks a significant win for the government, reinforcing its ability to advance key legislative priorities.

URUGUAY – The BCU surprised with a 50bps cut

Our terminal rate forecast stands at 7.25%, assuming inflation expectations continue to converge toward the target.

ARGENTINA – Current account deficit in 3Q25

We forecast a current account deficit of 1.9% of GDP for 2025.

PARAGUAY – GDP expanded at solid pace in 3Q25

We see upside risks to our 5.0% GDP growth forecast for 2025 given the higher-than-expected sequential growth in 3Q35.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in October

Import growth remains solid.

MEXICO – 1H December CPI with a downside surprise

We expect Banxico to cut rates by 25bp in February.

MEXICO – Better-than-expected trade balance

Net exports are an important driver of economic growth in 4Q25

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in October

Despite the weaker start to activity in 4Q25, we still forecast a 4.5% GDP growth this year.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

We forecast the policy rate at 6.00% throughout 2026.

MEXICO – October monthly GDP

October’s data suggests a gradual recovery

CHILE – IPoM: A Goldilocks (net hawkish) scenario 

The Central Bank released the 4Q25 Monetary Policy Report (IPoM), following yesterday’s 25-bp cut to 4.5%, in line with market consensus.

CHILE – BCCh delivers the expected 25-bps cut

The Central Bank’s Board unanimously cut the policy rate by 25-bps to 4.50%, in line with our call and broad consensus.

ARGENTINA – GDP rose sequentially in 3Q25

Due to a higher carryover, lower interest rates, and a more favorable investment outlook, we will revise our GDP growth projections for 2025 and 2026 (currently 3.8% and 2.5%, respectively).

ARGENTINA – Fiscal surplus

Our primary surplus forecast for 2025 and 2026 stands at 1.5% of GDP

URUGUAY – Activity contracted sequentially in 3Q25

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 2.3%, but now with downside risks.

CHILE – A New Dawn: Kast elected president

Kast begins his term with the new Congress on March 11, 2026.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates again

The print was above the central bank's survey median of 2.3% MoM. 

PERU – BCRP holds again at 4.25%

We expect a 25bps cut in 1Q26.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

Despite weaker construction and manufacturing data in October, our 3.8% GDP growth forecast for 2025 has upside risks.

MEXICO – November 2H CPI: Upside Surprise

Core services accelerating at the margin is a concern for Banxico

URUGUAY – IDAT–UY: November 2025

IDAT-UY decreased 0.4% MoM/SA in November.

CHILE – Trade surplus remains elevated in November

Copper prices boost trade balance

COLOMBIA – Inflation surprises to the downside

Some CPI relief

CHILE – Benign inflation in November

CPI print paves the way for the BCCh to cut 25bp 

URUGUAY – Lower-than-expected inflation

Our inflation forecast for YE25 stands at 3.9%.

MEXICO – Better-than-expected domestic demand

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 0.6% YoY, but with a downward bias due to supply shocks and historical data revisions

PARAGUAY – No news on the inflation front

Our 2025 inflation forecast stands at 3.9%. The recent reduction in fuel prices for December introduces downside risks to our yearend inflation call.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widened in 3Q25

Transfers help keep CAD at manageable levels.

CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside

Mining continues to be an activity drag

MEXICO – Public finance: revenues slowdown

Real revenues have increased by 6.6% YoY in 2025

PERU – Another Downside Inflation Surprise

Sequential price pressures remain contained

CHILE – Public Finance

Deficit through October blows past MoF's annual forecast.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remained tight in October

Private and self-employment payrolls continued to be key job drivers this month. 

CHILE – Credit: Commercial bank lending contracted

Overall, we maintain our view of a gradual recovery in credit. 

CHILE – Mixed sectoral activity in October

October's data continue to signals strong consumption momentum   better  

CHILE – Unemployment rate edges down

We forecast unemployment rate at 2.7% in 2025.

MEXICO – October’s informality rate rose

We forecast unemployment rate at 2.7% in 2025.

MEXICO – Better-than-expected trade balance

Strong non-auto manufacturing exports were the highlight of today’s data

ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially in 3Q25

The unusually large revision to activity data lead us to add an upside risk to our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.8%. 

MEXICO – Current account surplus

Positive behavior of non-oil trade balance

MEXICO – A Positive Surprise in Retail Sales

We forecast a 0.6% GDP expansion in 2025 but skewed to the downside.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

Following the incumbent’s better-than-expected midterm results and the rebound in the confidence in the government, the government will likely push for greater momentum on a second phase of reforms.

MEXICO – 1H November CPI

El Buen Fin discounts affected the 1H November data

PARAGUAY – BCP on hold again

We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% through the rest of 2025 and 2026.

MEXICO – 3Q25 GDP declined by 0.3% QoQ

We forecast a 0.6% GDP expansion in 2025 but now skewed to the downside.

PERU – Economy Expands 3.4% YoY in 3Q25

The economy continues to grow sequentially.

ARGENTINA – October Trade surplus

Imports remain upbeat.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 3Q25.

Imports remain upbeat

URUGUAY – The BCU cut the policy rate to 8.00%

We were surprised by today’s decision, considering the rise in inflation expectations among analysts since the last COPOM meeting.

COLOMBIA – Positive activity surprises continued

Gross fixed investment, private and public consumption increased at the margin.

URUGUAY – October IDAT–UY Report

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected GDP in 3Q

Activity: Investment recovery advances

CHILE – Domestic demand recovery widens CAD in 3Q

A well-balanced economy

ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus widened in October

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year is 1.5% of GDP.

PERU – Solid GDP growth in 3Q

Peru’s growth recovery remains on track.

CHILE – Jara to face Kast in the runoff

Peru’s growth recovery remains on track.

COLOMBIA – Activity growth picks up in 3Q

Strong activity dynamics at the margin.

PERU – BCRP holds again at 4.25%

Policy is only slightly restrictive.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Differing views on the next MP steps.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation accelerates again

Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 29.5%.

COLOMBIA – Inflation accelerates in October

A widespread acceleration in inflation.

MEXICO – Construction drags industrial production

We forecast 0.6% GDP growth in 2025, with a negative bias.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 3.8%, primarily due to a high carryover from last year.

CHILE – Trade surplus rebounds at the margin

Capital goods imports trend up.

CHILE – Downside CPI surprise

Sequential core pressures retreat.

MEXICO – Core tradables relief continued in Oct.

CPI close to expectations in 2H October.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

In a split (4x1) decision, the board delivered a 25-bp cut and shifted the forward guidance to singular.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

A slow disinflationary process is expected.

URUGUAY – Higher-than-expected inflation in Oct

We see upside risks to our inflation forecast for YE25 of 3.6% given the upside October surprise.

MEXICO – Mixed domestic demand in August

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 0.6% YoY.

PARAGUAY – CPI fell in October

Our inflation forecast for 2025 stands at 4.2%.

PERU – Another downside inflation surprise  in Oct

Sequential pressures remain well-behaved.

CHILE – Activity rebounded sequentially in Sept

Non-mining dynamics remain upbeat.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue improvement

Real revenues have increased by 6.8% this year.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Inflation dynamics and expectations call for caution.

CHILE – Upbeat retail activity in September

Mining remains weak.

MEXICO – 3Q25 GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ

Today's print was in line with our 0.6% 2025 GDP growth forecast.

CHILE – 3Q unemployment rate of 8.5%

Employment recovery underway.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

December cut dependent on softer CPI data.

MEXICO – Unemployment rate above consensus

We forecast an avergae unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2025.

ARGENTINA – A New Political Map

The government achieved far better-than-expected results with respect to polls.

MEXICO – Worse-than-expected trade balance

Correction of the non-oil trade surplus amid tariff-related uncertainty and stronger imports.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting: BCP on hold

We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% through the end of 2025.

MEXICO – Inflation below estimates

We anticipate a 25-bp rate cut in November to 7.25% with the forward guidance remaining in plural.

MEXICO – Better Retail Sales in August

We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded sequentially in August, but a technical recession is still likely for 3Q25

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 3.8%. 

MEXICO – August’s Monthly GDP

We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in August

Imports increased at the margin.

ARGENTINA – September trade surplus came in line with market expectations in September

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year.

CHILE – An unexpected electricity price drop

A methodological error needs to be corrected. 

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in August

Upbeat activity dynamics in the quarter.

PERU – Economic Activity Maintains Upward Momentum

Economic momentum remains positive.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates at the margin

We recently revised our YE25 inflation forecast up to 30.5% from 29.5% in our previous scenario due to our expectation of weaker ARS after the October 26 midterm election.

PERU – BCRP Holds Policy Rate At 4.25%

Real interest rate close to neutral.

MEXICO – Another downside industrial production surprise in August

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 0.6%.

MEXICO – Core CPI stays above 4% in September

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1% and 2026 at 3.7%.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction rose

Our 2025 GDP growth forecast stands at 3.8%, primarily due to a high carryover from last year. 

COLOMBIA – Inflationary pressures persisted

Non-durable goods rebounded, while services inflation remained at a high level.

CHILE – 3Q inflation comes below BCCh estimates

Sequential core services pressures remain elevated.

URUGUAY – The BCU surprised with a 50bps cut

We expect the BCU to cut the policy rate bringing the rate down to 8% by the end of 2025.

CHILE – Capital goods imports accelerate

Gradual trade surplus adjustment underway.

URUGUAY – Inflation continues below the target

Our inflation forecast for YE25 stands at 3.6%.

PARAGUAY – A welcome monthly deflation in September

Our inflation forecast for 2025 stands at 4.2%.

CHILE – Public Finance: Fiscal consolidation continues

12m rolling fiscal deficit fell further in August.

PERU – Inflation surprises to the downside in September

Sequential price pressures are low.

CHILE – Activity underwhelms in August

We anticipate 2025 GDP growth at 2.5%.

MEXICO – Fiscal path on track as of August

On a 12-month rolling basis, the broadest measure of the public balance (PSBR) posted a deficit of 4.1% of GDP through August.  

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Inflation dynamics remain a concern.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remains tight in August

Private and self-employment payrolls were the main job creators in August.

CHILE – Another downside unemployment surprise 

Employment levels trend up.

CHILE – Upbeat non-mining activity in August

Non-mining activity momentum is favorable.

CHILE – Credit dynamics improve in August

Commercial loans return to growth.

ARGENTINA –Confidence in the government fell again

The decline in government confidence occurred in a context of corruption allegations, eroding household confidence, combined with high volatility in interest rates and ARS depreciation.

CHILE – MoF presents currency issuance plan

2026 gross issuance plan revised up slightly. 

PARAGUAY – GDP expanded at solid pace in 2Q25

We foresee significant upside risks to our 4.3% GDP growth forecast for this year given a high carryover.

PARAGUAY – GDP expanded at solid pace in 2Q25

We foresee significant upside risks to our 4.3% GDP growth forecast for this year given a high carryover.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in August

High non-oil trade surplus, amid tariff-related uncertainty.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The main risks are domestic.

PERU – The never-ending pension withdrawal saga

Lower pension savings raises medium-term pressure on the fiscal accounts.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Once again, in a split (4x1) decision, the board delivered a 25-bp cut and continued to signal additional adjustments (plural) ahead.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially again

A technical recession is likely.

MEXICO – No surprises in inflation for the 1HSep25

We anticipate a 25-bp rate Banxico cut tomorrow to 7.5%.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% for the end of 2025.

MEXICO – Positive surprise in July’s retail sales

We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.

MEXICO – Weak July’s Monthly GDP print

We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in July

Import growth remains solid.

MEXICO – Domestic demand drove 2Q25 performance

Our forecast for this year is a 0.6% GDP growth.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in August

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year.

ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus rose in August

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year is 1.5% of GDP, which is in line with the official target recently presented in the 2026 Budget bill.

ARGENTINA – The GDP decreased sequentially in 2Q25

We see significant downside risks to our GDP growth forecast of 5.0% for 2025.

ARGENTINA – Remarks on the 2026 budget bill

The budget bill reaffirms the fiscal framework as the government's main policy anchor.

COLOMBIA – Strong activity print in July

Activity is accelerating at the margin.

URUGUAY – Activity expanded sequentially in 2Q25

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 2.3%.

PERU – Upside activity surprise in July

Peru’s monthly GDP proxy expanded by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in July.

PERU – BCRP Cut Its Policy Rate to 4.25%

Real interest rate close to neutral.

MEXICO – July’s industrial production disappoints

We forecast a 0.6% GDP growth in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Inflation stabilizes at the margin

Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 28.5%, with upside risks given the persistent depreciation of the ARS.

CHILE – IPoM: Rate path raised by 25bps to 4.25%

A more cautious path to neutral.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: An expected hold, but with a hawkish twist

Odds of an October cut drop sharply.

MEXICO – Annual core CPI ended August above 4%

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1% and 3.7% in 2026.

MEXICO – Fiscal budget

The MoF expects a deficit of 4.1% of GDP in 2026.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in July

Our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 5.0%, mainly reflects carryover from last year, with recent data raising downside risks to our call.  

COLOMBIA – Inflation remained sticky in August

Services inflation remains elevated.

CHILE – Trade surplus strikes back in August

CAD to widen amid recovering domestic demand.

CHILE – Annual inflation falls to 4%

We expect YE inflation of 3.9%.

MEXICO – Domestic demand with mixed surprises

We forecast a GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.

URUGUAY – Inflation was below the BCU's target

Due to lower-than-expected inflation figures and a stronger UYU, we see significant downside risks to our 4.5% inflation estimation for YE25.

PARAGUAY – Another higher-than-expected inflation

Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25, now with upside risks due to another higher-than-expected print in August.

COLOMBIA – An ambitious tax bill 

Another tax bill in motion.

URUGUAY – A look at the 2025-2029 Budget Bill

The macroeconomic scenario included in the Budget bill appears ambitious but feasible.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widened in 2Q25

The domestic demand rebound is reflected in rising imports.

PERU – Large downside inflation surprise in August

Inflation remains well-behaved.

CHILE – Upbeat non-mining activity in July

Services driving sequential dynamics.

MEXICO – Public finances aligned with targets

The MoF will present the 2026 budget on September 8th.

CHILE – Public Finance: Fiscal consolidation

12m rolling fiscal deficit fell to a two-year low.

CHILE – A milder credit decline in July 

Rate of annual decline has moderated.

COLOMBIA – Labor market dynamics remains solid

Self-employment and private payrolls continued to be key drivers of job growth.

CHILE – Unemployment rate to the downside

Employment levels remain low in July.

CHILE – Upbeat retail sales, mining underwhelms

Activity data has been volatile at the margin.

MEXICO – Informality unexpectedly jumped in July

We forecast an unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2025.

MEXICO – Net exports continue to improve

Small deficit in July, but another high non-oil trade surplus.

MEXICO – Small current account surplus in 2Q25

We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% of GDP.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government

The sharp and broad-based decline in government confidence takes place with elections taking place in the short term.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% for YE25.

PERU – GDP growth of 2.8% YoY in 2Q

The economy continues to grow sequentially.

MEXICO – 2Q25 GDP rose 0.6% QoQ

We recently revised our GDP forecast upward to 0.6% YoY in 2025.

MEXICO – A benign print CPI

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1%.

MEXICO – Negative bias in June’s retail sales

Retail sales fell by 0.4% MoM SA in June.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in July

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year.

ARGENTINA – Activity plummeted sequentially

Our GDP growth for YE25 stands at 5.0%.

URUGUAY – The BCU decided to cut

We expect the BCU to cut the policy rate at the next few policy meetings, bringing the rate down to 8% by the end of 2025.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 2Q25

Imports increased at a double-digit rate in.

ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus fell slightly

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target.

CHILE – Activity exceeds expectations in 2Q

The economy is consolidating its recovery path.

CHILE – Current account deficit widens as domestic demand recovers

A well-financed CAD.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in June

Slowing activity momentum.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected activity in 2Q25

Public consumption and gross fixed investment increased at the margin. 

PERU – BCRP Holds the Policy Rate at 4.5%

Timing of next cut hinges on external conditions.

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in June

Strong activity momentum in 2Q25.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated at the margin

Our inflation forecast stands at 28.5% for YE25.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Minutes

Expecting a pause in September.

COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside

Services inflation remains sticky at an elevated level.

MEXICO – Negative surprise in industrial production

We forecast a 0.2% GDP growth in 2025, with a positive bias.

CHILE – Another upside core inflation surprise

Sequential core pressures edged up.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in June

GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 5.2%, but now with downside risks.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: new pace, but same forward guidance

Once again, in a split (4x1) decision, the board delivered a 25-bp cut and continued to signal additional adjustments (plural) ahead.

CHILE – First trade deficit since late 2022

Imports signal a domestic demand recovery.

MEXICO – CPI ended July below expectations

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 4.1%.

CHILE – BCCh anuncia programa inesperado

The program will be reviewed every six months.

URUGUAY – Inflation at the BCU's target

We recently revised our YE25 inflation forecast down from 4.7% to 4.5%, due to a string of lower-than-expected inflation figures and a stronger UYU.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Inflation, economic activity, and neutral rate revised upward

Update on macroeconomic variables strengthened the need of caution.

MEXICO – Mixed domestic demand in May

We forecast a GDP growth of 0.2% in 2025, with a positive bias.

PARAGUAY – Higher-than-expected inflation in July

Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25, now with upside risks due to the higher-than-expected print in July.

PERU – No surprises in July’s inflation

Core pressures remain contained.

CHILE – Public Finance: Fiscal consolidation

Spending growth was flat in June.

CHILE – Economic activity holds steady 

GDP growth of 2.9% in 2Q25.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment remained low in 3Q25

Private salaried posts and self-employment were the main job creators in 3Q25.

MEXICO – Sticking to the fiscal roadmap in 3Q25

We anticipate a nominal deficit of 4.3% of GDP in 2025.

CHILE – Credit dynamics gradually improve

NPLs rose at the margin.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Inflation expectations are concerning.

COLOMBIA – Low unemployment rate in 2Q

Self-employment and private salaried posts were the main job creators in the 2Q.

CHILE – Credit: Groundhog day

Mortgage NPLs rose again.

CHILE – Upbeat non-mining activity in June

Activity dynamics at the margin remain favorable.

MEXICO – Fiscal consolidation on track

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2025.

CHILE – Tariff update

Chile’s copper exports escape 50% tariff increase.

CHILE – Unemployment rate at 8.9%

Employment levels broadly unchanged over the last year.

MEXICO – 2Q25 GDP showed resilience growing

We forecast an annual expansion of 0.2% in 2025, now with a positive bias.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

An expected unanimous 25-bp cut to 4.75%, more easing signaled ahead

ARGENTINA – A look at the upcoming elections  

Local elections have already been held in eight of the fourteen provinces scheduled for this calendar year.

MEXICO – A smaller-than-expected trade surplus

Big historical revision of the data.

MEXICO – June’s unemployment continues to run below historical average

We forecast an average unemployment rate this year of 2.9%.

MEXICO – 1H July CPI below expectations

We recently adjusted our forecast for CPI to end 2025 at 4.1%.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

We forecast a policy rate of 6.00% for YE25.

MEXICO – May’s Monthly GDP lower than expected 

We forecast a modest +0.2% GDP in 2025.

MEXICO – May’s retail sales 

We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Activity dropped sequentially in May

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 5.2%, primarily due to a high statistical carryover.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in May

Imports remain upbeat.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in June

We forecast a 2025 trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion, with downside risks given imports dynamics, amid the solid recovery of activity and ARS strength.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal surplus widens in June

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target. 

COLOMBIA – Activity surprised to the upside

Sequentially, retail sales remained strong in May.

PERU – Activity surprised to the upside in May

Economic momentum remains positive.

ARGENTINA – Another lower-than-expected inflation

Our inflation forecast stands at 28.5% for YE25.

PERU – BCRP Held its Policy Rate at 4.5%

We forecast one additional 25 basis point to 4.25%.

MEXICO – Positive surprise in industrial production

A positive bias in industry’s momentum.

MEXICO – Inflation ends June above expectations

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9% with an upside bias.

URUGUAY – The BCU cut the rate by 25 bps to 9%

The BCU cut the policy rate.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in May

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 5.2%.

COLOMBIA – Inflation falls below 5% in June

Services inflation remained elevated.

CHILE – June inflation surprises to the downside

Service pressures surprise to the upside.

CHILE - Wide trade surplus begins to adjust down

Import dynamics favorable for domestic demand recovery.

URUGUAY – A monthly deflation surprise in June

We recently revised our YE25 inflation forecast down to 4.7% (from 5.1%), due to stronger UYU.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tactical considerations behind the timing of upcoming rate cuts.

MEXICO – Mixed signs from domestic demand in April

We forecast a GDP growth of 0.2% in 2025.

PARAGUAY – Low monthly inflation in June

Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25.

PERU – Inflation pressures subdued in June

Sequential price dynamics remain well - behave.

CHILE – Activity falls sequentially in May

The recent commerce pull is showing signs of normalization.

CHILE – Public Finance: Largest deficit

Spending growth slowed at the margin.

MEXICO – Fiscal consolidation continued in May

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2025.

MEXICO – A challenging fiscal outlook 

Social programs are likely to make fiscal consolidation hard.

ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded sequentially

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 5.2%, primarily due to a high statistical carryover.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the Government slipped

Despite the drop in June, the government approval remains high.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected non-mining activity

Retail dynamics soften at the margin.

CHILE – Labor market weakness persists in May

Surge in labor costs take its toll on the labor market.

CHILE – Credit: Loan dynamics have improve

Consumer NPLs rose at the margin.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Fiscal deterioration limits room to maneuver.

COLOMBIA – 9% unemployment rate in May

Self-employment and private salaried positions were the main job creators.

PARAGUAY – GDP expanded at solid pace in 1Q25

We revised our GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.3% up from 3.5% in our previous scenario mainly due to tracking in 1Q25.

MEXICO – May’s unemployment rate

Looking ahead, we anticipate that job creation will continue to decelerate.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

In a split (4x1) decision, the board delivered another 50-bp cut and signaled additional adjustments (plural) ahead.

MEXICO – Trade surplus in May

Another high non-oil trade surplus

ARGENTINA – The current account deficit in 1Q25

We forecast a current account deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2025, down from a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2024.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting: BCP on hold

We forecast a policy rate of 6.0% for YE25. The policy rate is already at the upper bound of the BCP’s neutral range in real ex-ante terms.

MEXICO – Core inflation remained pressured

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

ARGENTINA – GDP rose sequentially in 1Q25

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 5.2%, mainly due to tracking in 1Q25.

MEXICO – Worse than expected April’s retail sales

We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025.

MEXICO – An upside surprise in April’s Monthly GDP

Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised up to a modest +0.2%.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in April

Imports increased sequentially in April.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal surplus is commonplace

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Ready to cut

A lower rate path ahead.

MEXICO – Aggregate supply and demand in 1Q25

The economy is weaker, but showing some resilience.

CHILE – No surprise as rates held at 5.0%

Recent events in the Middle East introduce a new source of uncertainty.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in April

Activity momentum remains positive but is decelerating.

COLOMBIA – Fiscal deficit outlook

Lower tax revenues and higher primary spending driver larger fiscal deficit.

COLOMBIA – Solid retail sales in April

Core retail sales remain upbeat.

PERU – BCRP Keeps Policy Rate at 4.5%, as Expected

Monetary policy rate approaching neutral.

URUGUAY – Activity expanded sequentially in 1Q25

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 2.3%, but now with downside risks amid lower than expect growth in 1Q25.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation plummets

We foresee downside risks to our 30.0% inflation forecast for YE25.

MEXICO – An improvement in industrial production

Momentum in the industry sector with a positive bias.

COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in May

Sequential inflation pressures remain at elevated levels.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

The sequential rebound in manufacturing and construction in April was in line with our expectations. Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 5.2%.

CHILE – A still large trade surplus in May

Domestic demand recovery underway.

MEXICO – Inflation with an upside surprise

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

CHILE – No surprises: CPI rises in line

Sequential pressures remain well-behaved.

URUGUAY – Inflation decelerated in May

We recently revised our YE25 inflation forecast down to 5.1% (from 5.5%).

COLOMBIA – Gradual CAD widening in 1Q25

CAD widened but remains close to record lows.

LATAM – Limited Spillovers from the Remittance Tax

Swings in US economic policy will be key.

MEXICO – No surprises in March’s domestic demand

We forecast a 0.5% QoQ GDP contraction in 2025.

PARAGUAY – Annual headline inflation decelerates

Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25.

CHILE – Public Finance

Spending growth accelerated at the margin.

CHILE – Mining drives activity

Commerce levels adjust down.

PERU – Inflation Surprised to the Downside in May

Inflation comfortably withing target range.

MEXICO – Public Finance with a modest setback

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remains tight in April

Self-employment and private salaried posts continued to boost job creation.

CHILE – Outstanding bank credit

Consumer NPLs continue to gradually decline.

MEXICO – Job market resilient in April

We expect the unemployment rate at 3.0% in 2025.

CHILE – Mining boosts activity in April

We expect IMACEC to increase by 2.9%.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected labor market print

Labor market slack is likely to persist in the near term.

URUGUAY – BCU maintained the policy rate at 9.25%

That’s all folks. While the statement does not provide clear forward guidance, we believe it is consistent with the end of the tightening cycle.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the Government rose

An orderly exit of capital controls for individuals, along with a sequential deceleration of inflation, has positively impacted Milei's support.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

Our YE25 policy rate forecast stands at 6.0%. The policy rate is already at the upper bound of the BCP’s neutral range in real ex-ante terms.

MEXICO – Small current account deficit in 1Q25

We forecast a current account of 0.6% of GDP.

PERU – Solid growth in 1Q25

Activity momentum remains positive but is decelerating.

MEXICO – A small USD 88 million trade deficit

Another high non-oil trade surplus.

MEXICO – 1Q25 GDP; March IGAE

We forecast a 0.5% drop in GDP this year.

MEXICO – 1H May CPI surprised to the upside

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in March

We recently revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 5.2% (from 4.5% in our previous scenario), mainly due to a high statistical carryover.

MEXICO – March retail sales above expectations

We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected trade surplus

For 2025 we see downside risks for our trade surplus forecast of USD 12.0 billion due to higher-than-expected imports.

COLOMBIA – Trade balance widened in 1Q25

Imports increase at a double-digit rate in 1Q25.

CHILE – A well-financed current account

A well balanced BoP.

CHILE – Activity recovery progressed in 1Q25

Frontloading of public expenditure.

ARGENTINA – A new fiscal surplus in April

Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target.

COLOMBIA – Higher-than-expected activity in 1Q25

Imports dynamics remain upbeat, signaling the recovery of domestic demand.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: just keep going

The board delivered a unanimous 50-bp cut and signaled another 50-bp cut in June.

PERU – GDP Proxy Surprised to the Upside in March

Activity momentum remains positive but is decelerating.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Moving towards cutting.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation falls again in April

We expect the disinflation process to continue in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 30.0% by year-end

COLOMBIA – Activity growth picks up in 1Q

Sequentially, sectoral activity lost momentum in 1Q25.

MEXICO – Mixed results in industrial production

Momentum in the industry sector remained weak in March (QoQ/SAAR at -0.5%).

PERU – The BC surprised by cutting the policy rate

We expect the BCRP to continue cutting throughout the course of the year with pauses in between, ending the year at 4.25%.

COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside

A widespread acceleration in inflation, as services remained elevated.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction fell

Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, but with upside risks due to high carryover.

CHILE – A volatile-led downside CPI surprise

Core inflation nearing the target.

MEXICO – April 2H CPI above expectations

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

CHILE – A USD 1.9 billion trade surplus in April

Consumer imports are elevated.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Higher regulated prices and food lift the inflation outlook.

MEXICO – Mixed Domestic Demand in February

We forecast a 0.5% QoQ GDP contraction in 2025.

URUGUAY – Annual inflation decelerated in April

Our year-end 2025 (YE25) inflation forecast is 5.5%, but there is downside risk due to a strong UYU and lower oil prices.

PARAGUAY – Lower-than-expected inflation in April

Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25.

CHILE – Revenues gained further momentum in March

Spending fell, led by base effects.

CHILE – Growth rebounded from February to March

Marginal growth effect of tourism to diminish ahead.

PERU – Food prices lift April inflation

Core price pressures are well-behaved.

COLOMBIA – An unexpected unanimous cut

First unanimous decision since July 2023.

MEXICO – Public Finance on track in the 1Q25

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Lower unemployment rate in 1Q

Urban Unemployment rate remains below the NAIRU

CHILE – Credit: Still waiting for the tide to turn

Credit demand remains weak

CHILE – Sectoral activity rebounded in March

Retail counters broader activity slowdown in 1Q25.

MEXICO – 1Q25 GDP grew +0.2% QoQ

Our 2025 GDP forecast is a contraction of 0.5%.

CHILE – Another expected hold

The uncertain environment still favors a cautious approach.

CHILE – Labor market slack persists in 1Q25

Elevated uncertainty may dent hiring demand ahead.

ARGENTINA – Government confidence fell again

Despite the negative trend, confidence in Milei’s government remains high.

CHILE – A Large Fiscal Impulse in an election year

MoF revised the nominal deficit down

MEXICO – Job market improved at the margin

We forecast unemployment rate at 3.0% in 2025

MEXICO – USD 3.4 billion trade surplus in March

The non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin

MEXICO – February’s Monthly GDP saved the day

Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised down to a recession of 0.5%.

MEXICO – April 1H CPI above expectations

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%

PARAGUAY – BCP keeps interest rate on hold

Our YE25 policy rate forecast stands at 6.0%. The policy rate is already at the upper bound of the BCP’s neutral range in real ex-ante terms.

COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit in February

Imports remain upbeat

MEXICO – Soft retail sales in February

We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025

ARGENTINA – Strong expansion of activity

We forecast GDP growth at 4.5% in 2025, with upside risks due to high carry-over, despite the more challenging global scenario.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in March

For 2025 we expect a trade surplus of USD 12.0 billion

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in March

We recently revised our primary budget surplus forecast for this year to 1.6% of GDP

PERU – GDP proxy was weaker-than-expected in Feb

Activity fell by 0.1% MoM/SA in February.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in February

Activity momentum remained strong at the margin.

ARGENTINA – Exchange Rate Framework Redux

Allowing for the currency to float within an exchange rate band takes place earlier than we anticipated.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated at the margin

We expect the disinflation process to resume in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end, well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised

Momentum in the industry sector remains weak in February (QoQ/SAAR at -6.2%).

PERU – Monetary Policy Rate at 4.75%

BCRP warns a more subdued outlook for global economic activity

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

Even though global policy uncertainty remains elevated, and domestic financial conditions have experienced important swings as of late, the gradual recovery of economic activity, continues.

MEXICO – No surprises for March 2H CPI

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

URUGUAY – Monetary Policy Decision

We expect the committee to hike the policy rate by 25 bps to a terminal rate of 9.50%

COLOMBIA – A downside CPI surprise in March

Despite remaining at high levels, services inflation fell 37 bps in March.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected core inflation

Core inflation is evolving favorably.

CHILE – Large USD6.9 billion trade surplus in 1Q25

Export momentum upbeat prior to the global tariff shock.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Sensitivity scenario playing out.

URUGUAY – Annual inflation accelerated in March

Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 5.5%, but with a downside risk.

MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated further

We forecast a 0.5% QoQ SA GDP contraction in 1Q25.

MEXICO – Preliminary Economic Policy Guidelines

Government debt is expected to rise to its highest level in over 20 years.

PARAGUAY – Higher-than-expected inflation in March

Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 3.5%, in line with the center of BCP’s target range, but the persistence of volatile prices introduces upside risks to our call.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue improvement

MoF might not sell dollars in April.

PERU – Strong inflation print in March

Core inflation reaches its lowest level since 2Q21.

CHILE – Activity expectedly weaker in February

Activity to rebound in March.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The global scenario brings a wave of uncertainty.

CHILE – Credit: Loan demand in the doldrums

Consumer NPLs rose at the margin.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprised in February

National unemployment rate close to a single digit.

CHILE – February sectoral activity hampered

One-offs dent activity.

MEXICO – Public Finance

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

BANREP´s next decision is close to a toss-up.

PARAGUAY – GDP rose by 4.2% in 2024

Our 2025 GDP growth forecast remains at 3.5%, with downside risk due to the drought and despite the positive carryover.

CHILE – Sequential employment demand stalls

Unemployment rate above market consensus in February.

MEXICO – Job market with signs of deterioration

We forecast unemployment rate at 2.9% in 2025.

ARGENTINA – A current account surplus in 2024

We forecast a current account deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, down from a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2024.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The board delivered a 50-bp cut (decision 5 x 0) and indicated another 50-bp in May.

ARGENTINA – Activity maintains momentum

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, with upside risks due to a high carryover and the expected improvement of demand-side components.

MEXICO – USD 2.2 billion trade surplus in February

The non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin.

ARGENTINA – Government confidence remained high

Confidence in Milei’s government remains high, despite the impact of the cryptocurrency scandal and the ongoing macro adjustment.

MEXICO – January retail sales exceed expectations

We expect the sector to remain slightly positive in 2025.

MEXICO – January’s Monthly GDP

Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised down to 0.0%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation still seen at 3% target by early 2026.

MEXICO – Mar 1H CPI close to expectations

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Time to accumulate information.

PARAGUAY – Monetary Policy Meeting

We expect no change in the policy rate through 2025.

URUGUAY – Activity expanded 3.1% in 2024

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 2.3%, with upside risks stemming from high carryover and the expected improvement in the tourism season in 1Q25.

MEXICO – Aggregate supply and demand lost steam

Our 2025 GDP forecast was recently revised down to 0.0%.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed in February

The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.2 billion in February.

ARGENTINA – GDP rose sequentially in 4Q24

We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, with upside risks due to a high carryover and the expected improvement of demand-side components.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview

Expecting a neutral bias.

COLOMBIA – A gradual widening of the trade deficit in January

Imports gained momentum.

CHILE – Lowest CAD since 2010

Well-financed CAD.

CHILE – Activity in 4Q24 builds on prior momentum with investment picking up

Domestic trends up.

PERU – BCRP held its Monetary Policy Rate at 4.75%

Holding rates.

ARGENTINA – Expected rebound in monthly inflation in February

We expect the disinflation process to resume in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end.

COLOMBIA – Strong activity start to the year

Activity is accelerating at the margin.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised negatively

Momentum in the industry sector remains weak in January (QoQ/SAAR at -7.2%).

COLOMBIA – An upside CPI surprise in February

Energy CPI rebounded.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

We expect GDP growth of 4.5% this year, after a contraction of 1.8% in 2024.

CHILE – Import growth continues to recover in Feb

Trade surpluses will like moderate ahead.

MEXICO – CPI accelerated in February, but remains within Banxico’s target

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

CHILE – No surprises. CPI increased by 0.4% in Feb

Core inflation dynamics are better behaved.

URUGUAY – Inflation surprises to the downside again

We recently revised our YE25 CPI forecast down to 5.5% from 6.0% previously.

PARAGUAY – Inflation surprises to the downside

We forecast a gradual decline in inflation to 3.5% by the end of 2025.

COLOMBIA – The CAD narrowed to 1.8% of GDP in 2024

In 2024, the current account deficit narrowed despite softer exports.

CHILE – Public Finance: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Revenue improvement continued, as spending roared back.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprised to the downside in January

Self-employment and private salaried posts boosted job creation.

CHILE – Retail sales outperform

Consumer-tourism lifts activity.

CHILE – Labor market improvement in January

Job demand shows improvement.

MEXICO – USD 4.6 billion trade deficit in Jan25

Oil trade balance continued to deteriorate at the margin.

MEXICO – Unemployment rate still low at the beginning of 2025

We forecast unemployment rate at 2.8% in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell by 1.8% in 2024

We expect 4.5% growth in 2025.

MEXICO – Current account ended 2024

We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Government confidence fell in February

Confidence in Milei’s government remains high, despite the decline in the first two months of the year.

MEXICO – CPI continues to decelerate

We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9% (3.6% in 2026).

PERU – Stronger than expected activity in 2024

Robust GDP in 4Q24.

MEXICO – GDP rose 1.5% in 2024

We forecast GDP to grow 0.9% in 2025.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised in December

We expect the sector to remain slightly on positive terms in 2025.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus narrowed

For 2025 we expect a trade surplus of USD 12.0 billion.

COLOMBIA – 1.7% GDP growth in 2024

Investment is recovering, while consumption dynamics soften.

ARGENTINA – A fiscal surplus to start 2025

We expect a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025, consistent with a balanced nominal budget, both in line with the 2025 budget bill.

PERU – Stronger than expected activity

Robust GDP in December driven by Primary Sectors and Manufacturing.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data to end 2024

Retail sales momentum in 4Q improved.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 2024

In 2024, exports contracted 0.4%, dragged by coal sales.

PERU – BCRP held its Monetary Policy Rate at 4.75%

Monetary Policy Rate edging closer to neutral.

URUGUAY – The BCU increased the policy rate

The BCU's decision takes place in the context of rising inflation expectations.

ARGENTINA – Disinflation process continued in Jan.

We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025 with headline inflation falling to 25% by year-end, well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

A hawkish twist.

MEXICO – Industrial production weaker in 2024

Tariffs from the US could also generate distortions in manufacturing exports

COLOMBIA – Fiscal consolidation delayed

In 2025, regaining fiscal credibility is at stake.

COLOMBIA – Strong inflation start to 2025

Services inflation remains elevated.

CHILE – Public Finance: A large fiscal miss as medium-term headwinds loom

2025 fiscal target set to be missed as well.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction expanded sequentially in December

Leading indicators point to another sequential expansion of the GDP proxy in December.

CHILE – A volatiles-led CPI rise in January

Upside risks to our 4% yearend call.

MEXICO – CPI close to expectations

We forecast CPI will end 2025 at 3.9%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 50-bp is the new pace, for now

The board delivered a 50-bp cut (decision 4 x 1).

URUGUAY – Annual inflation decelerated in January

We foresee inflation at 6.0% by YE25, at the upper bound of the central bank’s inflation target range.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Convergence to the inflation target range delayed to 2026

Higher inflation and neutral rate.

MEXICO – Domestic demand decelerated

Headwinds that affected activity in 4Q24 are likely to persist in 2025.

PARAGUAY – Higher-than-expected inflation in Jan

We forecast inflation at 3.5% by the end of 2025.

PERU – Inflation surprises to the downside again

Underlying price pressures remain contained.

CHILE – GDP growth surprised to the upside in 2024

Growth bias tilted to the upside for 2025.

CHILE – Public Finance: A bittersweet end to a challenging year

Unprecedented December spending contraction to revert in January.

CHILE – An Assessment of Fiscal Dynamics into 2024

Tax reforms and adjustments to the fiscal framework to continue in 2024.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

A more challenging disinflationary process.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate ended 2024

Improving employment dynamics in 4Q24 lifted by services.

CHILE – Credit: Are we over the hump?

Loan dynamics are gradually improving.

CHILE – The labor market remained weak in 4Q24

Job creation deteriorated significantly in 4Q24.

CHILE – Activity indicators ended the year stron

Mining production recovered in 2024.

MEXICO – Public finance: A challenging 2024

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2025.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in November

Imports continued to rebound during the latter part of 2024.

MEXICO – Worse than expected 4Q24 GDP

Flash GDP at 1.5% in 2024, lower than expected.

CHILE – A pension reform finally sees the light

While positive on net for Chilean risk assets, medium-term fiscal risks linger.

MEXICO – Unemployment rate ended 2024 at a record

Real wage bill up by 5.6% YoY in 2024.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A prolonged period of rates-on-hold ahead.

ARGENTINA – Government confidence remained high at the start of 2025

Confidence in Milei's government remains high, despite the slight dip in January.

MEXICO – USD 8.2 billion trade deficit in 2024

Oil trade balance continued to deteriorate at the margin.

MEXICO – November’s monthly GDP with a visible deceleration

We forecast a slight contraction for the 4Q24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Preview

Rising medium-term inflation expectations are a sign of concern.

ARGENTINA – Strong sequential expansion of activity in November

We recently revised our 2024 forecast to -2.6% (now with risks title to a lower drop) from -3.0% in our previous scenario. For 2025, we expect an expansion of 4.5%.

MEXICO – Core pressure persists in 1H January CPI

Limited disinflation ahead.

MEXICO – Retail sales fell in November

Consumption determinants remain positive.

ARGENTINA – A record trade surplus in 2024

For 2025 we expect a surplus of USD 12.0 billion.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators rose sequentially

Retail sales surprised to the upside in November.

ARGENTINA – An unprecedented fiscal consolidation

We expect a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025, consistent with a balanced nominal budget.

PERU – Activity recovery continued in November

The activity recovery remains well on track.

MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October

Investment contracted while consumption should be the key driver of domestic demand.

ARGENTINA – Inflation reached 117.8% in 2024

We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025. We now see inflation at 25% in YE25, down from 30% in our previous scenario and well below the 117.8% yoy inflation in YE24.

CHILE – Public Finance: MoF’s 2025 Financing Plan

No surprises in the financing plan.

COLOMBIA – An upside CPI surprise to end 2024

Durable and non-durable goods rebounded, while services prices decelerated.

MEXICO – Industrial production sideways in Nov.

Soft IP momentum as of November.

PERU – BCRP resumed the cycle cut to 4.75%.

Monetary Policy Rate edging close to neutral.

MEXICO – Inflation ends 2024 at 4.2%

We forecast 3.9% YoY by the end of 2025.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction

Leading indicators such as manufacturing and construction point to a new sequential expansion in 4Q24. We therefore see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024.

CHILE – CPI decline in December

Core inflation pressures remain high.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2024

Recovering domestic demand.

CHILE – Public Finance: How many dollars will the MoF sell in 2025?

MoF to sell roughly USD7 billion in 2025.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Signaling pauses ahead

Risks tilt towards a delay in reaching the terminal rate of the cycle.

URUGUAY – Annual inflation accelerated in December

Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 6%, up from the 5.49% of the end of 2024, in line with our call for a weaker currency.

MEXICO – Unemployment remains close

Still a tight labor market, but some deceleration in employment at the margin.

CHILE – Public Finance: 2024 fiscal target

Lagged revenue recovery weighs on the fiscal accounts.

MEXICO – Public balance deficit at record highs

We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 5.9% in 2024 and 3.9% of GDP in 2025.

CHILE – Upside activity surprise in November

Near potential growth and elevated uncertainty support a rate cut pause.

PERU – Inflation ends the year at the midpoint of the target range

Inflation ends the year at its lowest level in 4 years.

CHILE – Credit: Still no sign of improvement in commercial loan demand

Flows of commercial loans increased again at the margin.

CHILE – Unemployment rate surprised in November

Slack in the labor market persists.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprised in November

Private salaried posts continued to be the main job creator.

ARGENTINA – Confidence in the government high

Confidence in Milei's administration has remained strong, despite the significant macro adjustment.

MEXICO – October’s Monthly GDP

We expect 1.7% growth in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

MEXICO – Deficit in November’s trade balance

Non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin.

MEXICO – Moderation in the non-core component helps December CPI annual print

Headline inflation fell to 4.44% from 4.54% in the 2H of November.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: BanRep surprised with a smaller 25bp cut to 9.50%

International and local risks led to a deceleration of the cycle.

ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially at the beginning of 4Q24

We recently revised our 2024 forecast to -3.0% (now with risks title to a lower drop) from -3.5% in our previous scenario. For 2025, we expect an expansion of 4.2%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The board expects further and possibly larger cuts in the future.

ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus

We see upside risks to our USD 17 billion trade surplus for 2024.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in October

Last quarter of the year starts with an improvement in import dynamics.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation revised up yet again.

MEXICO – Positive data from supply and demand

We expect 1.7% growth in 2024.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Easing cycle to take a breather.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continued in Nov

The official estimate is a 1.9% of GDP primary surplus for 2024.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Weaker activity data at the margin.

ARGENTINA – Exiting the recession in 3Q24

We see upside risk to our 2024 GDP forecast of -3.0%.

COLOMBIA – Activity surprised to the upside

Manufacturing levels improved at the margin.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

Fiscal uncertainty warrants cautiousness.

CHILE – Monetary Policy & IPoM Preview

Cautious towards neutral.

ARGENTINA – Another downside inflation surprise

We expect the disinflation process to continue in 2025.

MEXICO – Another good inflation print in November

Benign inflation scenario with a still numb pass-through and lower service inflation.

COLOMBIA – Inflation above market consensus

Services inflation remained elevated.

CHILE – No CPI surprise in November; BCCh to cut 25bp later this month

Core inflation pressures remain high, but domestic demand is soft.

MEXICO – Gross Fixed Investment fell by 3.3% YoY

Internal demand below expectations in September, but consumption remains strong.

COLOMBIA – Narrow current account deficit in 3Q24

Foreign direct investment continued to fall in the 3Q.

PERU – Inflation rose by 0.1% MoM in November

Inflation rises in November in line with expectations.

CHILE – A business services led sequential activity uptick in October

The outlook remains challenging.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue recovery risks being too little, too late

Still waiting for the spending cuts to materialize.

COLOMBIA – Stable employment levels in October

Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver.

CHILE – Credit: Still in the doldrums as weak dynamics endure

Outstanding consumer loans in Chile improved at the margin.

CHILE – We expect IMACEC to rise by 2.5% YoY in October

Favorable activity momentum in the quarter.

CHILE – Weak sequential job dynamics in October

Mining job dynamics upbeat; weakness elsewhere.

MEXICO – October’s trade balance above expectations

On a 12-month rolling basis, the trade deficit reached USD 5.8 billion in October.

URUGUAY – Yamandú Orsi was elected president for the next five years

The next government will begin its five-year term on 1 March 2025.

ARGENTINA – Against all odds: Confidence in the government edges higher

Confidence in Milei's administration has remained strong.

ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially in 3Q24

We see upside risks to our 2024 forecast of -3.5%.

PERU – 3Q24 printed above expectations

Activity recovery remains on track.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in 3Q24

Imports fell sequentially in 3Q24.

ARGENTINA – Another trade surplus in October

Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023.

CHILE – Public Finance: An update on the MoF’s dollar sales

Sales to continue at least through mid-December.

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in 3Q24

Gross fixed investment continued a gradual recovery.

CHILE – Well-financed current account deficit

Copper exports supported a large trade surplus for goods.

CHILE – Activity expectedly rebounded sequentially

Net-exports lifted annual growth.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal surplus continued in October

Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.5% of GDP for 2024.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity performance in 3Q24

Manufacturing contracted again in 2Q24.

ARGENTINA – Monthly Inflation Breaks the 3 Barrier

We expect lower inflation in 2024 and 2025. We now foresee inflation at 120% by YE24, down from 125% in our previous scenario. For YE25 we envisage inflation at 35%, down from 45% before.

COLOMBIA – Consumer prices fall in October

Core price dynamics remain sticky.

CHILE – Inflation strikes back in October

High core pressures at the margin.

PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP cuts again to 5.0%

Real rate is closer to neutral.

CHILE – Trade surplus continued to climb

Improving domestic demand signals.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

A smaller negative output gap expected.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

In October, the BCCh’s Board unanimously cut the policy rate by 25 bp to 5.25%.

CHILE – Sequential activity decline in September

Investment signals remain weak.

CHILE – Public Finance: Starting to shake off the revenue gloom?

Deficit set to widen further in 4Q24.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cautious stance is maintained with a 50bp cut.

Tighter global financial conditions prevent a larger cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate declined at the margin in September

Employment dropped at the margin.

CHILE – Credit: Contraction of commercial loans persists

NPLs continue to rise.

CHILE – Activity picks up in 3Q

We expect IMACEC growth of 1.1%.

CHILE – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate

Job recovery scenario is not yet in the cards.

URUGUAY – No surprises in the elections

A new race begins for the November 24 runoff. Sunday’s election results point to a tight second round.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

Caution to prevail albeit less favorable external financial conditions.

ARGENTINA – Modest sequential growth in activity

The second consecutive improvement in economic activity in August is consistent with our view of a sequential recovery starting in 3Q24.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly

Imports fell sequentially in August.

ARGENTINA – Another trade surplus in September

Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion.

CHILE – Monetary Policy: A 25bp cut to 5.25%

We expect the BCCh to maintain the pace of 25 bp cuts ahead.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal surpluses continued in 3Q24

We expect a balanced nominal fiscal result for 2024 and 2025.

CHILE – Monetary Policy: All set for a 25bps cut

Advancing towards neutral.

PERU – Activity recovery continued in August

Minnig drives the recovery in August.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity in August

Manufacturing levels remained weak.

PERU – BCRP surprises keeping the rate at 5.25%

Higher oil prices and global uncertainty likely drove the decision

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation starts with "3"

Our inflation forecast for YE24 is 125%.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Signaling continuous cuts

Two members appear willing to discuss accelerating.

MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continues

Banxico’s continuous easing cycle to proceed in November

CHILE – Volatile foods drive a large downside inflation surprise in September

Rebound expected in October.

COLOMBIA – Disinflation process continued in September, as services stickiness persists

Headline CPI moderated at the margin in 3Q24.

CHILE – Trade surplus remained high in September

Copper exports boom.

CHILE – Public Finance: Deficit to rise above the target

Revenue misses weigh on the fiscal accounts.

PERU – Another downside inflation surprise

Falling inflation to allow for more cuts.

CHILE – Mining lifts activity in August

Activity dynamics are improving after a weak 2Q.

CHILE – Credit: Outstanding loans fell further

Borrowing rates to fall further.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A split board cuts by 50bps

Despite the drop in inflation, it remains high.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience in August

Employment increased sequentially.

CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside again in August

Revising IMACEC up.

CHILE – Unemployment rate edged higher in August

Looser labor marker supports more rate cuts.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview: Caution to prevail, but a 75bp cut cannot be ruled out

BanRep will wait for more clarity on the upside risks to inflation.

ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded sequentially in July

The sequential improvement in economic activity in July is in line with our view of a sequential recovery starting in 3Q24.

MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continues

Banxico to deliver another 25-bp cut this month.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Cuts to continue.

ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus

We see upside risks to our 2024 trade surplus forecast of USD 15 billion.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July

Consumer goods imports on an upward trend.

ARGENTINA – The fiscal surplus marches on

Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.0% of GDP.

ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 2Q24

We recently revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to -4.0% (from -3.5%).

COLOMBIA – Proposed financing law

The fiscal consolidation path is once more delayed

COLOMBIA – Activity increased from June to July

Retail sales and manufacturing increased at the margin.

PERU – Monetary policy: another 25-bp cut

We expect another cut later in the year.

ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in Aug

We still foresee downside risks for our 130% inflation forecast by YE24.

MEXICO – Gradual core disinflation continued

Banxico to deliver another 25-bp cut this month.

COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in August

A widespread deceleration in inflation, but services remain elevated.

CHILE – Trade surplus remained elevated in August

Imports yet to consolidate a sustained improvement.

CHILE – Inflation rose by 0.26% in August

Diverging sequential pressures.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Reduced inflation persistence supports cuts ahead.

CHILE – Monetary Policy: A unanimous 25bps cut

Updated guidance is coherent with two further cuts this year to 5%.

MEXICO – Internal demand weakened further

Private consumption slipped.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2Q24

A significant narrowing of the CAD was observed in the 2Q24.

PERU – Core inflation fell within the target band

Inflation at the margin plummeted.

CHILE – July activity rebound exceeds expectations

Unwinding prior shocks.

CHILE – PublicFinance: Waiting for stronger growth

2024 deficit target seems very challenging.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience in July

Employment increased sequentially in July.

CHILE – Credit: Outstanding loans fell again

Consumer NPLs resumed downward trend.

CHILE – Manufacturing rebounded; IMACEC estimated

Mining has been a key driver of growth this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview

IPoM to include a revision of the structural parameters

CHILE – Unemployment rate surprises to the upside

Informal posts account for 3/5 of annual job creation.

MEXICO – July’s trade balance was better

Manufacturing exports rebounded.

MEXICO – A current account surplus in 2Q24

A lower services deficit contributed to a smaller CAD on a rolling 4-quarter basis.

MEXICO – Soft activity in 2Q24

Our GDP growth forecast of 1.6% has a downside bias.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the September meeting.

MEXICO – Inflation to the downside in 1H August

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in September.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell in June

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 is -3.5%, now with downside risks due to the sizable negative statistical carryover from 2Q24

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus increased in July

The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.6 billion in July, well above the USD 0.7 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Weak activity supports further rate cuts.

CHILE – An expected activity downturn in 2Q24

Net-exports lift annual growth amid soft domestic demand and upbeat mining.

CHILE – A small current account deficit in 2Q24

FDI dynamics bolster favorable financing mix.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continues

Our primary fiscal balance forecast stands at +1.0% of GDP.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose sequentially in 2Q24

Imports increased sequentially in 2Q24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Decisions ahead dependent on incoming data.

COLOMBIA – Weaker than expected GDP in 2Q24

Gross fixed investment returned to positive territory.

PERU – Activity proxy slipped in June

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 3.1%.

ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in July

CPI posted the lowest reading since January 2022.

COLOMBIA – Retail sales and manufacturing contracted in 2Q24

Manufacturing fell from 1Q24.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts are data dependent

Core inflation forecast path remained unchanged.

CHILE – Electricity expectedly lifts July inflation

Elevated YTD inflationary pressures.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised slightly to the upside in July

Fruits & vegetables pressures seem to be easing in the 2H July.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Higher short-term growth and inflation lead to a cautious rate path

The main risk to inflation is related to the persistence of the service prices.

MEXICO – Monetary policy preview: a 25-bp rate cut

A split decision is likely.

PERU – Headline inflation surprised to the downside in July

However, core inflation remained persistently above the inflation target.

CHILE – IMACEC grows well below expectations

Several indicators suggest a moderate improvement ahead.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The technical staff revised the GDP growth call up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

An earlier-than-expected pause.

CHILE – Credit: Flows of Commercial Loans surprisingly rose at the margin

Borrowing rates fell further.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment declined at the margin

Private salaried posts continued to be the main job creator.

CHILE – Mixed sectoral activity in June

Overall activity dynamics underwhelmed in 2Q24.

MEXICO – Nominal fiscal deficit narrowed in June

Fiscal expenditures on subsidies & transfers appear to be normalizing.

CHILE – Unemployment in line with expectations

As inflation rises and interest rates remain high, labor market recovery dynamics are likely to soften.

MEXICO – Another soft GDP expansion in 2Q24

Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.6%.

MEXICO – Trade balance was below expectations

Weaker currency could give some support to manufacturing exports in 2H24.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Preview: Closer to a pause

Short-term inflation expectations have edged higher.

MEXICO – 1H July headline inflation surprised to the upside

Upside pressure was mainly due to volatile fruits & vegetable prices.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP proxy rebounded in May

Our GDP growth forecast for 2024 stands at 1.6%.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit rose further in May

Consumer goods imports picked-up.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus rose higher in June

The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 1.9 billion in June.

ARGENTINA – Activity rebounds after downturn

Activity increased sequentially in May.

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in June

Tax collection fell by 4.2% yoy in real terms in the period, after dropping by 4.8% in 1Q24.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak

Manufacturing continues to trend down in May.

PERU – Another activity upside surprise in May

Primary sector was the main driver to the headline figure.

ARGENTINA – Inflation surprises to the downside

Consistent downside surprises to inflation, a stronger ARS, and weaker activity, we lowered our inflation forecast to 130% for YE24 (from 140%).

MEXICO – Industrial production rebounded in May

IP was driven by a strong expansion in construction.

PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP extended the pause

BCRP extended the pause.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the August meeting.

COLOMBIA – Gradual core disinflation to prevent a larger rate cut

Food prices surprised to the upside.

MEXICO – Headline inflation surprised to the upside

Core inflation eased further, a 25-bp rate cut is still on the table in August.

CHILE – Weak imports drive large trade surplus

Narrow CAD to continue.

CHILE – Consumer prices drop in June

Services inflation picks up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

BCCh Board set to tread carefully.

MEXICO – Internal demand was broadly in line

Private consumption weakened while GFI expanded at a decent pace.

PERU – Well-behaved inflation in June

Headline inflation remains within the target range of 2+/-1%.

CHILE – Activity posted a consecutive retreat

Several indicators support weaker activity dynamics.

CHILE – Public Finance

Interest payments rose by 50%.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Fiscal concerns eased following latest update.

ARGENTINA – Activity slump continued in April

Our 2024 GDP growth forecast stands at -3.0%, with downside risks.

COLOMBIA – Labor market resilience continued

Private salaried posts remain a key employment driver.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in May

After an upbeat 1Q, activity is slowing.

CHILE – The unemployment rate fell again in May

However, we believe the labor market still has some slack.

CHILE – Credit: Persistent weakness in commercial loans raises risk of a slow recovery in investment

Consumer NPLs continue to expectedly decline.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a rate cut is back on the table

Our base scenario is for a rate cut of 25-bp in the next meeting.

MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May

Manufacturing exports posted a strong expansion, while non-energy imports weakened.

ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 1Q24

We forecast a current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP for 2024.

ARGENTINA – GDP contracted sequentially in 1Q24

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at -3.0%.

MEXICO – 1H June inflation

We expect Banxico to pause at 11.00% this Thursday.

MEXICO – April’s monthly GDP weakened

The headline figure was dragged by the primary, industrial and services sectors.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened in April

Imports increased sequentially.

ARGENTINA – Wide trade surplus in May

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside

However, momentum remained soft.

MEXICO – Monetary policy preview

We expect cuts to resume later this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

A more cautious policy rate path ahead.

CHILE – An expected 25bp cut to 5.75%

Caution ahead as inflation to be revised up.

ARGENTINA – Large fiscal surplus in May

Our fiscal primary balance forecast stands at +0.5% of GDP for 2024.

MEXICO – Solid domestic demand in 1Q24

Domestic demand was driven by private consumption.

COLOMBIA – Fiscal deficit rises despite efforts

A challenging fiscal consolidation.

PERU – A surprisingly strong activity print

We expect GDP growth of 2.7% this year.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators post surprises

Despite weak demand, BanRep is expected to remain cautious.

CHILE – Electricity price readjustments

Electricity price hikes are expected to be relevant.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting & IPoM Preview: Down to 25

Short-term inflationary pressures will add a layer of MP caution.

PERU – Monetary policy: BCRP surprised again with a pause

We expect further rate cuts during the rest of the year.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation consolidates

We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 140% for YE24 (from 160% previously).

ARGENTINA – Habemus Law

The Senate’s approval of the Bases bill and fiscal reform is a positive step for the government.

COLOMBIA – Core disinflation process continued

We envisage BanRep’s easing cycle to continue at a gradual pace in the short-term.

MEXICO – Industrial production weakened in April

Industrial production momentum remained soft.

CHILE – Large trade surplus continued in May

Weakness of capital goods imports continued.

CHILE – Consumer prices rise above expectations

Services CPI gradually edges down.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The benefit of not surprising.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside

We expect a rate cut in June, but the new political landscape poses risks.

ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction in April

Manufacturing and construction sectors recovered in April.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q24

Private consumption and GFI expanded at a decent pace in March.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit contained

Favorable CAD financing.

CHILE – A second consecutive Imacec retreat

Leading indicators suggest an activity improvement.

PERU – Another downside inflation surprise in May

The odds of another rate cut are increasing.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenues improved as spending spree continues

Spending remains unexpectedly strong.

CHILE – Retail Sales: The only way is up! right?

Retail sales to support gradual private consumption-led recovery in 2024.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate

Unemployment rate (SA) ticked up at the margin.

CHILE – Credit: NPLs appear to have stabilized

Consumer loans rise further.

CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity in April

After an upbeat 1Q, activity momentum started to fade

CHILE – Unemployment rate continued to trend down in April

Labor slack persists, preventing demand-side inflationary pressures.

MEXICO – 1Q24 Inflation Report: another rate cut is likely

We expect Banxico to cut its policy rate by 25-bp in the June meeting.

CHILE – An expected 50-bp cut to 6.0%

A consecutive 50bp cut cannot be ruled out in June.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 1Q24

Our 2024 GDP call for a contraction of 3.0% has downside risks, despite the normalization of the agriculture sector.

ARGENTINA – Trade balance surplus continued in April

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.

COLOMBIA – Trade balance improved in 1Q24

Imports fell sequentially in 1Q24.

CHILE – GDP rose sequentially in 1Q24

We still expect a 2.4% 2024 GDP growth, but with an upside bias.

CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 1Q24

Copper price dynamics will consolidate a sustainable-financed CAD scenario.

ARGENTINA – Another fiscal surplus in April

We continue to see a primary fiscal surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2024.

COLOMBIA – Gradual private consumption recovery continued in 1Q24

While investment increased at the margin, overall dynamics remain weak.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in March

Activity recovery remains fragile.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

Yearend inflation expectations tick up, fewer cuts seen this year.

ARGENTINA – Inflation fell into single digits in April

We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 160% for YE24 (from 180% previously).

CHILE – Public Finance: Medium-term headwinds persist

Near-term fiscal outlook somewhat better, primarily due to mining-related revenue.

COLOMBIA – Retail and manufacturing activity contracted in 1Q24

Manufacturing levels dropped from 4Q23.

MEXICO – Industrial production expanded in March

Still, IP momentum in 1Q24 was soft.

PERU – Monetary policy: Another 25-bp cut

Further policy rate reductions are limited given a narrowing of the rate differential.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

New forward guidance opens the door for a rate cut in the next meeting.

COLOMBIA – April disinflation in line

Core inflation continues to correct.

MEXICO – Mixed inflation results in April

Headline inflation was above market consensus, while core inflation was slightly below.

CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the upside

Tradable inflation starts to tick up.

CHILE – Financial Stability Report

Signaling a “neutral” level for the CCyB above the current 0.5% of RWAs.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April

Weak capital imports persist.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

A smaller negative output gap expected.

MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in February

Both – private consumption and GFI improved in February.

CHILE – A March retreat to conclude an upbeat 1Q24

Mining boosts activity in 1Q24.

CHILE – Public Finance: Revenue dynamics improved

Spending growth slowed

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in April

Headline inflation is inside the BCRP's 2+/-1% target range.

MEXICO – Below target nominal fiscal deficit

On a 12-month rolling basis, the nominal fiscal deficit widened.

COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting: Déjà Vu

Tighter global financial conditions prevent a larger cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rises in 1Q24

Growth of private salaried posts slows.

CHILE – Credit growth remains weak

Consumer NPLs fell at the margin.

CHILE – Slow but steady sectorial activity gains

We expect March Imacec to increase 0.9% YoY.

CHILE – Unemployment rate falls in 1Q24

Employment growth consolidates.

MEXICO – Soft flash GDP estimate in 1Q24

However, activity rebounded in February and likely in March.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H April

We expect Banxico to pause in May’s monetary policy meeting.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in February

We still maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024.

ARGENTINA – Delivering results an unprecedented fiscal surplus in 1Q24

The fiscal results of the administration are impressive so far, comfortably exceeding IMF targets.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the upside to the upside in February

An improvement in services sector and a strong primary output were the main drivers.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit widened slightly in February

Investment-related imports remain weak.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in February

The recovery in retail sales suggests strong fiscal spending is starting to show in the data.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data

We expect the BCCh step down the pace to 50-bp at the May meeting.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators remained weak

Widespread drag for retail sales.

PERU – Activity was above market expectations

Construction and mining supported activity.

ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in March

We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%.

MEXICO – Soft industrial production in February

Industrial production was dragged by construction output.

MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised

Easing of tourism related prices in 2H March exerted relevant downward pressure.

CHILE – Another positive trade surplus in March

We expect a manageable CAD of just below 4% this year.

CHILE – Consumer prices surprised to the downside

Sequential services pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued

Core inflation continued to fall.

MEXICO – Banxico minutes

Our base case remains for another rate cut in May.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

The correction of prior imbalances allows for further gradual rate cuts.

MEXICO – Weak internal demand in January

GFI lost momentum as private consumption is softening.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

An expected deceleration to 75bps.

PERU – Another upside inflation surprise

Further monetary easing is likely this year.

CHILE – Widespread sequential growth in February

Leading indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery.

CHILE – Public Finance: A challenging start

Revenues continue to disappoint.

CHILE – Labor market dynamics improved again in Feb

Private salaried job pull increases.

CHILE – Leap-year boost to activity in February

Activity continues to surprise positively at the margin.

MEXICO–2025 Preliminary Economic Policy Guidelines

Fiscal consolidation for 2025 will likely be challenging.

COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weaken in February

Unemployment rate is trending up.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

We expect a year-end policy rate of 4.75%.

MEXICO – Smaller than expected trade deficit

Trade balance figures suggest an improvement in activity in February.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell further in January

We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for 2024.

COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting

A cautious rate cut path is justified.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

Services and primary sectors were the main drags to activity.

MEXICO – Core inflation surprised to the upside

Tourism related prices was the main upside pressure to core inflation.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Further rate cuts will be data dependent.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Soft retail sales contrast with the frontloaded expansionary fiscal stance.

MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand in 4Q23

Private consumption expanded at a still favorable pace.

COLOMBIA – The trade deficit fell further in Jan.

Imports continue to adjust.

CHILE – Activity surprised to the upside in 4Q23

Private consumption annual drag continues to ease.

CHILE – CAD narrows 5.1pp to 3.6% of GDP in 2023

Net-FDI funded CAD.

ARGENTINA – Another monthly fiscal surplus

We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024, below the official forecast of a surplus of 2.0% of GDP.

ARGENTINA – Inflation decelerated further in February

Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks, despite the lower-than-expected February print.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in January

However, momentum remains soft.

CHILE – Another large upside surprise in inflation

Higher CPI to challenge rate cut pace.

PERU – Monetary policy: a surprise pause

Our end of year policy rate forecast of 5.00% has an upward bias.

COLOMBIA – Disinflation process continued in February

Disinflation process supports a larger rate cut in March.

CHILE – Weak imports support USD1.5bi trade surplus

We expect some CAD widening to around 4% this year.

MEXICO – Presidential Campaigns kick off

Claudia Sheinbaum leads the polls.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 2023

The lowest annual CAD since 2010.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in February

Food & non-alcoholic beverages pushed prices up in the month.

CHILE – Large upside activity surprise in January

The strong start to the year likely offsets the weak close to 2023 And just to plans, the 2md chile that was scheduled for today will be published on Monday.

CHILE –Activity indicators surprised to the upside

Activity off to a strong start to the year.

MEXICO – 4Q23 Inflation Report

We still expect a 25-bp rate cut in March.

CHILE – Better than expected labor market data

We may have reached a turning point.

MEXICO – Greater than expected trade deficit in January

Manufacturing exports weakened in the first month of the year.

MEXICO – Narrow current account deficit in 2023

A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted by 1.6% in 2023

We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -2.5% for 2024.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Our base scenario is for a rate cut in March.

MEXICO – Activity slowed in 4Q23

Industrial production and primary sectors were the main drags to activity in 4Q23.

MEXICO – Downside inflation surprise in 1H February

Downside pressure came mainly from the reversal of agricultural prices.

MEXICO – Weak retail sales in December

Main private consumption determinants remain healthy.

ARGENTINA – Trade surplus at the beginning of 2024

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation program starts

We expect a balanced primary fiscal account (0% of GDP) in 2024.

COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected 0.6%

Weak investment persists.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in December.

GDP growth for 2023 reached -0.6%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

We expect the Board will continue with the 100bp rate cut pace in April.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation decelerated in January.

Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks.

COLOMBIA – Weak retail activity in December

Retail sales continued to trend down.

COLOMBIA – Gradual trade deficit narrowing in 2023

Weaker imports supported the trade deficit narrowing advance in 2023.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised again

Construction and manufacturing sectors dragged industrial production.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing to continue

Our end of year policy rate forecast is at 5.00%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Meeting

We expect the easing cycle to begin in March.

CHILE – Easing to continue despite upside inflation

Tradable pressures are elevated at the margin.

MEXICO – Headline inflation rebounded in January

Non-core inflation remained an important upside pressure.

COLOMBIA – No surprises in inflation in January

Inflationary pressure eases at the margin.

CHILE – Large trade surplus to start 2024

Consumer imports in line with a gradual consumption recovery.

MEXICO – Last minute reforms, in an election year

Most reforms are unlikely to be approved, but if approved could pressure fiscal accounts.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Public Finance: 2024 fiscal deficit revised even higher

A challenging fiscal backdrop.

MEXICO – Mixed internal demand indicators in November

Private consumption evolution remained resilient, while investment momentum weakened.

PERU – Inflation slowed further in January

Easing cycle to continue.

CHILE – Activity surprises to the downside in December.

Weaker carryover into 2024.

CHILE – Public Finance: Reality bites

Fiscal accounts deteriorated in line with our call.

CHILE – Activity indicators contracted in December

We expect December IMACEC to increase by 0.7% YoY, but risks are tilted to the downside.

MEXICO – Fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2023

An appreciated currency was a drag for oil and tax revenues.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: cut to 7.25%

We expect the BCCh to continue to swiftly cut rates in the short term.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: cuts by 25bps

Inflation dynamics will be key to the MP easing cycle.

COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics weakened in 4Q23

The unemployment rate is trending up.

CHILE – Unemployment surprises to the downside

Annual job gains were widespread, but with a growing informality share.

MEXICO – Flash GDP surprised in 4Q23

Industrial output was the main drag to activity.

CHILE – What’s next in the pension reform discussion

We expect further adjustments in the Senate.

MEXICO – Greater trade surplus in December

The trade deficit stood at USD 5.5 billion for 2023.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP lost momentum in November

Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main drags to activity.

MEXICO – Upside headline inflation surprise

Volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index was the main upward pressure.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in November

We expect a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after an expected 1.5% contraction in 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit reached 2.9% of GDP

We expect a balance primary.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview

We expect the easing cycle to continue with a 100bp rate cut to 7.25%.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing continued

Commodities continued to drag exports in November.

ARGENTINA – Large trade deficit in 2023

For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 20.0 million led by the recovery of the agriculture sector.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity indicators in November

Manufacturing continues to trend down.

PERU – Activity momentum remained soft in November

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -0.4%.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Further rate cuts are likely.

ARGENTINA – Inflation ended 2023 at 211%

Monthly inflation to rise by double digits in 1Q24.

MEXICO – IP surprised to the downside in November

Construction and manufacturing were the main drags.

COLOMBIA – A faster inflation fall to end 2023

Headline inflation fell to one-digit terrain.

MEXICO – Internal demand in October

Construction investment is still expanding at a solid pace.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside

The upside surprise was mainly driven by volatile fruits & vegetables in the non-core index.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2023

Correction of external imbalances unfolded swiftly during 2023.

CHILE – Broad-based inflation fall to end 2023

Central Bank to continue easing.

CHILE – Public Finance: Our view on the 2024

Government plans on issuing USD16.5 billion, in line with our call.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Easing set to continue.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect the easing cycle to begin in March.

PERU – Annual Inflation fell further in December

Core inflation is now within the target range of 2+/1%.

CHILE – Activity grows above expectations

Mixed sentiment dynamics suggest only a moderate activity recovery ahead.

CHILE – Public Finance: Deficit widened further

Challenging 2023 fiscal forecasts.

CHILE – November IMACEC to rise by 0.6% YoY

Activity is recovering at the margin.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in November

Manufacturing exports momentum remain soft.

MEXICO – Activity cooled down in October

Still, monthly GDP momentum remains positive.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell sequentially in October

We estimate a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after a 1.5% decline in 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in November

The effects of the stabilization package are expected to be reflected in the following prints.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H December

Non-core fruits & vegetables prices exerted upward pressure.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October

Falling imports signal downbeat internal demand.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

The core inflation convergence is unfolding more swiftly.

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside

Still, momentum is slowing.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Global developments opened the door for a step up in pace of rate cuts.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

A gradual easing cycle process is expected.

MEXICO – Domestic demand slowed sequentially in 3Q

Gross fixed investment was the main driver of domestic demand.

CHILE – Constitutional Text is rejected again

Uncertainty to linger on.

COLOMBIA – Weak activity in October

After a weak 3Q23, activity dynamics continue to trend down.

ARGENTINA – GDP rebounded sequentially in 3Q23

The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%.

CHILE – December Monetary Policy Preview

Accelerating the pace to 75bps.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Our end of next year policy rate is at 5.00%.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: still hawkish

A first rate cut is likely in 1Q24.

ARGENTINA – An ambitious stabilization plan

In our view, the announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation accelerated in November

We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in the coming months.

MEXICO – Industrial production in October

Construction is still the main driver of industrial production.

COLOMBIA – A slow disinflation process continued

Core inflation remained high and sticky at the margin.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in November

Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month.

CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in November

Imports weakness compensated the contraction of exports during the month.

COLOMBIA – CAD narrowed significantly in 3Q23

Financing of the CAD is favorable.

CHILE – Non-mining activity improves in October

As interest rates and inflation fall, the economy is expected to gradually recover.

CHILE – Public Finance: Expenditures increased

MoF’s annual fiscal target seems challenging.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment surprises to the downside

The unemployment continued to fall in October.

CHILE – Better-than-expected activity indicators

We expect a mild recovery ahead as interest rates and inflation fall.

CHILE – Unemployment rate rose sequentially

The gradual deterioration of the labor market should continue in the near term.

MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed further

A lower energy goods deficit outweighed softer remittances.

MEXICO – Solid GDP in 3Q23

Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

All Board members seem open to discuss rate cuts early next year.

MEXICO – 1H November Inflation was broadly

Services inflation continued to ease at a gradual pace.

ARGENTINA – Sequential activity rebounded in 3Q23

We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in October

Our primary fiscal deficit projection for this year stands at 3.5% of GDP.

MEXICO – Retail sales momentum softened in 3Q23

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%.

CHILE – Another upside GDP surprise in 3Q23

The annual drag from private consumption continues to ease.

CHILE – CAD narrows by 1.2pp to 3.5% of GDP

Favorable FDI dynamics consolidate a more sustainable financing mix.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 3Q23

Weak imports points to further domestic demand softening ahead.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakens in 3Q23

Falling imports signal further consumption weakening ahead.

PERU – Activity surprised in September

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias.

COLOMBIA – Weak activity in 3Q23

Overall dynamics remained weak as tight monetary policy persists.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The BCCh insists it does not target the level of the CLP.

ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation eased in October

We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end.

MEXICO – Industrial production remains positive

Construction weakened in September.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Rate cuts will likely continue.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a dovish pause

We kept our call of the central bank beginning their easing cycle in May 2024.

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in October

Services inflation remains elevated.

MEXICO – October inflation was broadly in line

Persistent services CPI likely to reinforce Banxico’s cautious tone on the disinflation outlook.

CHILE – Core consumer prices stable in October

Weak core inflationary pressures at the margin.

CHILE – Domestic demand supports another surplus

Contractionary monetary policy supporting BoP adjustment.

MEXICO – Internal demand indicators expanded

Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation forecast revised higher.

CHILE – A mining-led expansion in September

Activity should gradually recover sequentially in the coming months.

CHILE – Public Finance

Cumulative fiscal deficit widens.

PERU – Another large downside in October’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Easing likely to be pushed forward.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remain strong in 3Q23

The unemployment rate has continued to trend down.

CHILE – Sectorial surprised to the upside

We believe activity likely bottomed out.

CHILE – Better than expected labor data in Sep.

Labor market slack to increase.

MEXICO – Smaller fiscal deficits in 3Q23

Lower primary expenditures more than offset weaker revenues.

CHILE – October Monetary Policy Meeting preview

We expect a 75bps cut for October Monetary Policy Meeting.

ARGENTINA – Better-than-expected activity

Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023.

MEXICO – Headline CPI surprised to the downside

Lower volatile agricultural prices were the main downside pressure.

MEXICO – Activity momentum improved in August

Services and construction supported activity in the month.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in August

Imports fell again sequentially as domestic demand adjusts

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We see downside risks to our trade deficit forecast of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Retail sales softened in August

Real wage bill to continue supporting private consumption.

PERU – Weak activity momentum in August

Activity should gradually improve during the rest of the year.

COLOMBIA – Activity dynamics weakened in August

Contractionary monetary policy and elevated inflation help cool activity

ARGENTINA – Inflation posts a record in September

We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%.

MEXICO – MP meeting minutes with a hawkish bias

Higher odds of delaying the first rate cut.

MEXICO – Resilient industrial production in August

Construction expanded at a strong pace while manufacturing weakened

CHILE – Weak imports lead to trade surplus

CAD correction to continue.

COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued

Annual core inflation fell to one-digit.

MEXICO – Persistent services inflation

Banxico unlikely to start its easing cycle this year.

CHILE – An upside CPI surprise, led by volatiles

Core inflationary pressures are weakening at the margin.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Our end-of-year policy rate forecast stands at 6.75%.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in July

Gross Fixed Investment is driven by construction investment.

PERU – A downside surprise in September’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

CHILE – Widening of the fiscal deficit

Second consecutive real expenditure contraction.

CHILE – large negative IMACEC surprise in August

A gradual sequential improvement toward yearend is our base case.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

We view the October meeting as a 50-50 call for the beginning of an easing cycle with a 25-bp cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate continues to fall

Labor marklet loosening expected ahead.

CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics in August

We believe the activity cycle is bottoming out in 3Q23.

CHILE – Unemployment rate continues to rise

Weakening of the labor market is consolidating.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The Board expects a more gradual decline in inflation.

MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in August

Manufacturing exports deteriorated, dragged by vehicle sales.

ARGENTINA –Activity rebounded sequentially in July

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

We expect the economy to gradually slow during the rest of the year

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit improved temporarily

We forecast a primary deficit of 3.0% of GDP for this year, above the 1.9% deficit targeted for 2023 in the agreement with the IMF.

MEXICO – CPI broadly in line with consensus

Our 2023 yearend inflation forecast stands at 4.5%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Board is likely to be more sensitive to asset prices (rates, FX) in the next decisions.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We expect a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Positive momentum in July’s retail sales

The real wage bill, main determinant of private consumption, continued to grow at a solid pace.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July

Imports contracted as the domestic demand weakens.

ARGENTINA – Severe drought dragged activity in 2Q

We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%.

MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand expansion in 2Q

Domestic demand was mainly supported by gross fixed investment.

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in July

Activity indicators continue to lose momentum.

PERU – Activity deteriorated in July

The El Niño phenomenon likely to weigh on activity in 2H23.

PERU – Monetary policy: a hawkish start

BCRP: the decision does not necessarily imply further consecutive rate cuts

ARGENTINA – CB maintained the policy rate at 118%

Our monetary policy rate (Leliq) forecast stands at 145% for year-end.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply

The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly following the devaluation of the currency after the primary election.

MEXICO – 2024 fiscal budget: Higher fiscal deficit

2024 fiscal deficit revised up on higher spending and lower revenue.