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Latam | Economic Analysis

See here the publications of Latam Economic Indicators and Scenario.

Macro Latam

  • COLOMBIA – Trade balance widened in 1Q25

    Imports increase at a double-digit rate in 1Q25.

  • CHILE – A well-financed current account

    A well balanced BoP.

  • CHILE – Activity recovery progressed in 1Q25

    Frontloading of public expenditure.

  • ARGENTINA – A new fiscal surplus in April

    Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year stands at 1.6% of GDP, in line with the official target.

  • COLOMBIA – Higher-than-expected activity in 1Q25

    Imports dynamics remain upbeat, signaling the recovery of domestic demand.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: just keep going

    The board delivered a unanimous 50-bp cut and signaled another 50-bp cut in June.

  • PERU – GDP Proxy Surprised to the Upside in March

    Activity momentum remains positive but is decelerating

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    Moving towards cutting.

  • ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation falls again in April

    We expect the disinflation process to continue in the coming months with headline inflation falling to 30.0% by year-end

  • COLOMBIA – Activity growth picks up in 1Q

    Sequentially, sectoral activity lost momentum in 1Q25.

  • MEXICO – Mixed results in industrial production

    Momentum in the industry sector remained weak in March (QoQ/SAAR at -0.5%).

  • PERU – The BC surprised by cutting the policy rate

    We expect the BCRP to continue cutting throughout the course of the year with pauses in between, ending the year at 4.25%.

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside

    A widespread acceleration in inflation, as services remained elevated.

  • ARGENTINA – Manufacturing and construction fell

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, but with upside risks due to high carryover.

  • CHILE – A volatile-led downside CPI surprise

    Core inflation nearing the target.

  • MEXICO – April 2H CPI above expectations

    We forecast CPI to end 2025 at 3.9%.

  • CHILE – A USD 1.9 billion trade surplus in April

    Consumer imports are elevated.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

    Higher regulated prices and food lift the inflation outlook.

  • MEXICO – Mixed Domestic Demand in February

    We forecast a 0.5% QoQ GDP contraction in 2025.

  • URUGUAY – Annual inflation decelerated in April

    Our year-end 2025 (YE25) inflation forecast is 5.5%, but there is downside risk due to a strong UYU and lower oil prices.

  • PARAGUAY – Lower-than-expected inflation in April

    Our inflation forecast stands at 4.0% for YE25.

  • CHILE – Revenues gained further momentum in March

    Spending fell, led by base effects.

  • CHILE – Growth rebounded from February to March

    Marginal growth effect of tourism to diminish ahead

  • PERU – Food prices lift April inflation

    Core price pressures are well-behaved

  • COLOMBIA – An unexpected unanimous cut

    First unanimous decision since July 2023.

  • MEXICO – Public Finance on track in the 1Q25

    We forecast a nominal fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP in 2025

  • COLOMBIA – Lower unemployment rate in 1Q

    Urban Unemployment rate remains below the NAIRU

  • CHILE – Credit: Still waiting for the tide to turn

    Credit demand remains weak

  • CHILE – Sectoral activity rebounded in March

    Retail counters broader activity slowdown in 1Q25

Macro Vision

  • 2025 Chilean Elections Primer

    Crime expected to be a key campaign issue.

  • Bilateral relationship between China and Mexico

    Mexico appears committed to, if necessary, sacrifice some of its bilateral relationship with China to preserve the USMCA free-trade deal.

  • COLOMBIA - Interest rate cycles

    This descriptive study analyzes 11 interest rate cycles since December 2002 to identify recurrences and patterns in monetary policy decisions.

  • MEXICO – Interest rate cycles

    This descriptive study analyzes 7 interest rate cycles since January 2008 to identify recurrences and patterns in monetary policy decisions.

  • CHILE-Mining’s role in the economy and the outlook

    Mining investment to boost activity.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade relationship with the U.S.

    External debt is sizable (~48% of GDP) and domestic policy uncertainty may add to pressure.

  • CHILE – Pension Reform: Is this time different?

    Reform discussions appear to lose momentum.

  • PERU – A balanced economy set for higher growth

    Fiscal consolidation should continue next year.

  • CHILE – Fiscal framework

    Medium-term fiscal challenges linger.

  • Venezuela Primer

    Time for change?

  • COLOMBIA – Public Finance: Revenue blues

    Testing the limits of the fiscal rule.

  • CHILE – Consumption non-performing loans

    Consumption NPLs are projected to gradually decline.

  • CHILE – An update on Chile’s fiscal dynamics

    Financing needs remain elevated.

  • MEXICO – A challenging fiscal outlook

    Social programs are likely to make fiscal consolidation hard.

  • CHILE – Retail Sales: The only way is up! right?

    Retail sales to support gradual private consumption-led recovery in 2024.

  • CHILE – Inflation expectations

    Inflation expectations play a fundamental role in inflation targeting regimes.

  • CHILE – CLP dynamics: The sky’s the limit?

    CLP pressure expected to ease ahead.

  • Synchrony between neighbors: inflation surprises

    When a monthly consumer inflation reading in one country in the region delivers a surprise, inflation results in other countries tend to show deviation in the same direction.

  • CHILE – An Assessment of Fiscal Dynamics into 2024

    Tax reforms and adjustments to the fiscal framework to continue in 2024.

  • MEXICO – An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE – A primer on the draft constitutional text

    All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • MEXICO - Evaluating the nearshoring moment

    Higher potential GDP growth is likely if nearshoring materializes.

  • CHILE - Assessing the disinflationary process

    CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA -An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

  • CHILE –An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 23

    MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.

  • CHILE – Assessing the easing cycle ahead

    We use Taylor Rule models to assess the central bank’s reaction function.

  • MEXICO – An early look at 2024 Elections

    Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.

  • MEXICO –Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation

    Rate cuts are unlikely this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trip Notes

    Our views on potential policy changes after this year's elections.

  • Roadmap of Chile’s Constitutional process

    The new process should conclude this year.

Scenario Review Mexico

  • The long and winding road

    This is a challenging year for growth in Mexico.

  • Winter is here

    We revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast downward again, now predicting a contraction of 0.5% (from 0.0%).

  • Not a recession, yet

    Our 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised downward again, this time to 0.0% (from 0.9%).

  • Uncertainty takes a toll on economic activity

    We revised our 2025 growth forecast down to 0.9% from 1.5% (2026 to 1.4%, from 1.7%).

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Mexico economic outlook in 2025.

  • Upside for growth despite lingering uncertainty

    Growth supported by domestic and external consumption, amid a weaker currency and uncertainty ahead.

  • More volatility ahead

    Higher rates, continuous deterioration of the institutional investment outlook, and uncertainty about the relationship with the U.S.

  • More headwinds for activity?

    Continuous policy rate cuts penciled in.

  • Easing cycle to continue

    Judicial reform was approved.

  • Policy challenges amid lower rates

    Policy challenges.

  • Downshifting growth forecasts

    Our GDP growth estimate for 2024 is now at 1.6% (previously at 2.3%).

  • Sheinbaum’s landslide

    Higher odds of radical institutional changes.

  • Another pause is likely

    Our base scenario, considers a rate cut in June.

  • Start of the easing cycle

    We changed our call for a pause in May

  • Rate cuts are near

    Opening the door for rate cuts.

  • Non-core inflation strikes back 

    We expect a first rate cut in March.

  • Top themes for 2024

    Lower rates in an election year.

  • Fiscal expansion to drive growth in 2024

    A rate cut likely in 1Q24.

  • Easing cycle delayed further

    We now expect the easing cycle to begin in May.

  • High rates for longer

    Rate cuts postponed until next year.

  • Delaying the beginning of the easing cycle

    We now expect the first rate cut to take place in December.

  • 2023 GDP forecast revised even higher

    An earlier easing amid weak activity and lower inflation.

  • Surprisingly resilient activity

    Our 2023 GDP growth forecast now stands at 2.7% (previously at 2.4%).

  • Rate cuts during 4Q23

    We now expect an end of year policy rate of 10.75%.

  • Additional rate hikes unlikely

    Policy rate likely to remain unchanged throughout the year at 11.25%

  • Hiking cycle is likely to end soon

    We expect one last 25-bp rate hike.

  • Another battle in the supreme court

    Better outlook this year, but worse the next.

  • More hikes to come

    Concerns on core inflation outlook increased.

  • More limits on the government’s agenda

    End of the hiking cycle is near.

  • Slowing the hiking pace

    About to end the tightening cycle?

Scenario Review Chile

  • Rate cuts are coming

    Labor market slack persists.

  • The tide turns

    Risks tilt towards a weaker activity outlook.

  • Moving in the right direction

    Upside GDP bias and risks of swifter disinflation.

  • Upward revisions to growth and inflation

    BCCh to remain on hold this year.

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Chile economic outlook in 2025.

  • CLP pressure poses disinflation and rate risks

    The central bank will continue to signal a path to neutral.

  • Growing headwinds

    CLP whiplash.

  • Room to keep going

    Estimating a lower terminal rate.

  • The cuts must go on

    Risks tilt towards even lower rates.

  • BCCh pauses, hinting at more cuts down the road

    Higher short-term inflaton expectations warrant a cautious BCCh approach.

  • Approaching a pause

    Higher nominal rate path, but lower real rates.

  • Fine-tuning

    Uncertainty on electricity price adjustments risk higher inflation.

  • Nearing the last mile

    More cuts ahead, size likely dependent on data.

  • Upside pressures

    Rate path revised up.

  • Upside pressure

    The CLP, recent inflation surprises, and the Fed pose challenges for BCCh.

  • Falling fast toward neutral

    A gradual sequential recovery in economic activity.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A faster-than-expected disinflation process supports swifter MP easing.

  • Easing continues

    Global developments permit swifter easing cycle.

  • A more gradual easing cycle

    Tighter global financial conditions have resulted in a slower easing cycle.

  • A more challenging external backdrop

    Raising the short end of the curve.

  • A more cautious cycle

    Pass-through pressures pose upside risks to the disinflation process.

  • A swifter easing cycle

    Real rates remain high despite cut.

  • Let the easing cycle begin

    We expect a 50-bp rate cut in July, but risks tilt to a larger adjustment.

  • Rate cuts about to start?

    We expect the June IPoM to open the door to a rate cut cycle.

  • In data-dependent mode

    We still expect the beginning of the easing cycle to occur in July

  • Postponing the awaited easing cycle

    Rate cuts now likely only in 3Q23.

  • A more gradual easing cycle ahead

    Caution rules for the Central Bank.

  • Not there yet

    Risks of cutting prematurely persist.

  • A year to correct imbalances

    Rates to remain unchanged in the near term.

  • Rate cuts unlikely to come soon

    A gradual activity correction underway.

Scenario Review Colombia

  • Higher inflation, higher rates

    Gradual activity recovery continues.

  • Caution is the name of the game

    Fiscal accounts in the spotlight.

  • All eyes on BanRep

    More unpleasant inflation surprises.

  • Cautious Monetary Policy to prevail

    Disinflationary process to decelerate

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Colombia economic outlook in 2025.

  • Easing cycle to continue amid fiscal stress

    Core inflation remain elevated.

  • Higher fiscal noise, higher rates

    The disinflationary process continues.

  • Inquietante escenario fiscal

    Una Junta de BanRep dividida se inclinaría hacia mayores recortes.

  • Unsettling fiscal scenario

    A divided BanRep board moves toward larger cuts.

  • Easing amid a strike and a tax reform

    Rate cut caution expected ahead.

  • Is the acceleration of the easing cycle near?

    We expect BanRep to remain cautious

  • A weak fiscal revenue story

    Wider fiscal deficits in 2024 and 2025.

  • The shifting fiscal sands

    Fiscal challenges abound.

  • Gradual easing to continue

    Global financial conditions will play a key role in MP

  • Fast and furious?

    A more gradual easing cycle.

  • Easing to continue

    Growth revised down slightly.

  • Continuing the easing cycle with a 25bp cut

    A slow but steady disinflation path.

  • Top themes for 2024

    .

  • A gradual easing cycle is expected

    The size of the next cuts will be data dependent.

  • Easing cycle postponed

    High inflation and tight global financial conditions lead to higher scenario for rates.

  • Sticky inflation lowers October rate cut odds

    Sticky inflation leads to slower easing cycle.

  • Pressure to cut rates increases

    We still see rate cuts starting October but with a smaller 25bp adjustment.

  • Easing cycle penciled in for 4Q23

    Stronger COP supports lower inflation and earlier rate cuts.

  • In observation mode

    A challenging fiscal consolidation path.

  • Governability challenges increase

    With elevated inflation, rate cuts are not expected this year.

  • Political uncertainty and inflation constrain MP

    The tightening cycle likely ended

  • Signaling the end of the cycle

    Inflation and rates to stay high.

  • Uncertainty likely to remain high

    The hiking cycle is nearing its end.

  • Still waiting for an inflation peak

    Keeping rates high for longer.

  • Tightening cycle to continue

    Elevated inflationary pressures to lead to further tightening.

Scenario Review Argentina

  • Learning to float

    We believe the gradual activity recovery will continue and raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 5.2% from 4.5%.

  • Boom! Floating within an exchange rate band

    The central bank surprised by announcing important changes to its exchange rate framework.

  • Navigating political noise

    Waiting for the agreement with the IMF.

  • Fighting inflation is still the only game in town

    Improving outlook, albeit fragile and subject to macro and political risks.

  • Top themes for 2025

    In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the Argentina economic outlook in 2025.

  • So far, so good ... a better outlook for 2025

    Against all odds: Confidence in the government edges higher

  • The pieces are falling into place …

    The sequential rebound in economic activity has gained some steam, prompting us to revise our GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

  • Building a fiscal anchor

    We improved our fiscal projections for 2024 and 2025, in line with the budget bill’s forecasts, reflecting this year’s progress and the administration’s commitment to the fiscal accounts.

  • Recession deepens as disinflation continues

    We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to -4.0% (from -3.5% in our previous scenario), mainly due to the sizable negative statistical carryover from 2Q24.

  • All hands ondeck on the disinflationary battle

    The cumulative nominal fiscal surplus surpassed the IMF’s targets.

  • Reforms for a post-stabilization recovery

    The approval of the “Bases” bill and the fiscal package should be a turning point in the administration’s efforts to stabilize and deregulate the economy, foster investment, and gradually improve the fiscal accounts.

  • Macro adjustments continue

    Waiting for a recovery in activity.

  • Delivering results

    A more benign outlook for nominal variables.

  • So far, so good, from a macroeconomic perspective

    Stronger ARS, Lower Rates and Primary Fiscal Surplus.

  • Stabilization program yields 1st positive results

    The stabilization program has begun to yield positive initial dividends.

  • First steps in a long journey

    Our scenario assumes the success of a stabilization program, but implementation risks are still high.

  • Top themes for 2024

    A challenging fiscal consolidation in 2024.

  • New government with a stabilization program ahead

    The announced measures of the stabilization plan begin to address the fiscal concerns yet will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

  • Runoff approaches as adjustment countdown ticks

    All eyes on the November 19 runoff.

  • Macro imbalances increase as elections loom

    Libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei leads voting intentions for October.

  • A rude awakening

    Polls show that Milei’s momentum has increased since the primaries.

  • A fragile economy heads into elections

    The PASO primaries on August 13 will determine the presidential candidates, reveal the voting preferences for each coalition.

  • Macro fragility persists with elections

    Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 has led us to expect a smaller contraction this year of 3% (previously - 4%). In a context of high volatility, we cut our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

  • Lower reserves and less time

    We now expect a meaningful real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

  • A peso under siege

    The depletion of international reserves led to an increase in devaluation expectations for the official exchange rate.

  • An even more fragile economy

    We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast again, to -4.0% from -3.0%.

  • Drought to take a toll on activity

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2023 down to -3% from -1.5%.

  • No inflation respite

    We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year.

  • The year has gone, but the challenges remain

    The country needs to address many macro imbalances to improve growth prospects.

  • Extending the multiple exchange rates regime

    In any case, the pressure on international reserves will remain.

Scenario Review Peru

Macro Scenario Latam

  • Uruguay | May2025

    Nearing the end of the hiking cycle

  • Uruguay | April 2025

    We expect the BCU to hike the policy rate by 25 bps to a terminal rate of 9.50%

  • Paraguay | April 2025

    We revised our inflation forecast for YE25 to 4.0% from 3.5% in our previous scenario.

  • Paraguay | March 2025

    Our 2025 GDP growth forecast remains at 3.5%, with downside risk due to the drought.

  • Uruguay | March 2025

    We still expect the BCU to increase the policy rate to 9.5% by YE25

  • Paraguay | February 2025

    No rate cuts in sight.

  • Uruguay | February 2025

    Higher rates, reacting to the rise in inflation expectations

  • Paraguay | January 2025

    A lower inflation target and our expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates limit the scope for further easing in the near term.

  • Uruguay | January 2025

    All eyes are on the fiscal accounts and measures to ensure the disinflation path continues.

  • Paraguay | December 2024

    The central bank reduced the center of the target range to 3.5%, from 4.0%

  • Uruguay | December 2024

    Considering the weaker currency, we now expect 6.0% inflation by YE25.

  • Paraguay | November 2024

    No rate cuts in sight

  • Uruguay | November 2024

    All eyes on this month’s runoff.

  • Uruguay | October 2024

    All eyes on October 27

  • Paraguay | October 2024

    GDP grew sequentially in 2Q24

  • Paraguay | September2024

    At least one more rate cut by YE24.

  • Uruguay | September 2024

    Lower growth and inflation.

  • Paraguay | August 2024

    Investment Grade Rating Raised by Moody's.

  • Uruguay | August 2024

    Rising inflation calls for monetary caution.

  • Paraguay | July 2024

    Raising growth.

  • Uruguay | July 2024

    Activity improving as elections loom.

  • Paraguay | June, 2024

    No more room for rate cuts this year

  • Uruguay | June, 2024

    Primary elections will take place on June 30.

  • Paraguay | May, 2024

    No more rate cuts in the near term, with an eye on inflation.

  • Uruguay | May, 2024

    The presidential race begins as risks from a plebiscite loom.

  • Paraguay | April, 2024

    We now expect a pause in the easing cycle

  • Uruguay | April, 2024

    Sweet spot: Higher growth and lower inflation

  • Uruguay | March, 2024

    No more rate cuts for now.

  • Paraguay | March, 2024

    Easing likely to continue in the near term.

  • Paraguay | February, 2024

    Volatility in global financial markets increases the odds of a pause.

Escenario Macro Latam en español

History - Macro Latam