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We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year.
01/06/2023 | Julio Ruiz.

CPI increased 0.32% mom in May (from 0.38% a year ago), above our forecast of 0.16%, but broadly in line with market consensus of 0.30% (as per Bloomberg).The main upward pressures to headline CPI came from restaurant & hotels (contribution of 11-bp) and food prices (contribution of 25-bp), with the latter driven by fish prices due to a weather anomaly. On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 7.89% in May (from 7.97% in April), while core inflation (excluding energy and food items) stood at 5.11% (from 5.66%).



At the margin, headline inflation remains stubborn, while core inflation eased further. The seasonally adjusted three-month annualized variation of the CPI came in at 7.65% in May (from 7.41% in April), while core inflation (excluding food and energy items) stood at 2.79% (from 4.34%). 


We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year. Lower commodity prices and below potential activity are likely to help inflation to slow down in 2023. In this context, we expect the BCRP policy rate to remain unchanged throughout the year at 7.75%.