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We expect Banxico to pause at 11.00% this Thursday.
2024/06/24 | Julio Ruiz


Bi-weekly headline inflation stood at 0.21%, above market consensus of 0.16% (as per Bloomberg) and our 0.09% forecast.  The upside surprise versus our call came mainly from fruits & vegetable prices which increased 1.33% bw/bw, while our trackers indicated a fall of 1.18%. Core biweekly inflation (0.17%) was broadly in line with market consensus of 0.18% and our call of 0.19%.  Within core inflation we note some upward pressure in tourism related prices (air tariffs: 3.93% and tourism packages: 3.76%) which could be associated with the recent currency depreciation. Annual headline inflation stood at 4.78% in 1H June (from 4.59% in 2H May), driven mainly by the non-core index, while core inflation stood at 4.17% (from 4.11%). Within core inflation, we note core goods CPI rebounded (3.33%, from 3.21%), while core services inflation fell slightly to 5.19% (from 5.21%).


 Our take:  With available information for the 2Q24 headline and core inflation stood at 4.69% and 4.26%, respectively, which compares fairly with Banxico’s 2Q24 headline and core inflation forecasts of 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively. In this sense, even though today’s inflation print seems supportive with a 25-bp rate cut in the June 27 meeting, we think board members will want to avoid/mitigate further FX volatility, pausing at 11.00% in this week's monetary policy meeting.


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