Consumer prices rose by 6.0 mom in June (from 7.8% in May), below market expectations of 7.3%, according to the central bank survey (top 10 forecasters). Annualized quarterly inflation fell to 135.4% in 2Q23, from 151.3% in the quarter ended in May. The 12-month inflation reading came in at 115.6%.
Core inflation decelerated to 6.5% in June (from 7.8% in the previous month), helped by a deceleration in food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as apparel and footwear. Annualized core inflation fell to 139.5% in the quarter ended in June, from 145.5% in May. The modest rise in prices for seasonal products of 1.9% mom (down from 9% in May) and 137.8% yoy also contributed to the headline deceleration. Prices for regulated products rose by 7.2% mom and 108.8% yoy.
Given the high volatility, we recently lowered our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%. We continue to expect a meaningful depreciation of the official real exchange rate by year-end.