Aggregate supply and demand grew 4.8% yoy in 2Q23, above our forecast of 4.0% and market consensus of 4.4% (as per Bloomberg). At the margin, using seasonally adjusted figures, aggregate supply and demand grew 1.3% qoq/sa in 2Q23. Domestic demand expanded at a solid 2.2% qoq/sa in 2Q23, supported by gross fixed investment (6.5%) and a still decent evolution in private consumption (1.0%). Within gross fixed investment, both private and public gross fixed investment registered a strong expansion, with the latter likely associated to the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. Final private demand stood at 2.3% qoq/sa in 2Q23, while public demand stood at 1.6%. Exports and imports of goods and services stood at -3.1% qoq/sa and 2.2% in 2Q23, respectively.
Our take: Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.0%. After strong GDP growth in 1H23, we expect activity to soften over the second half of the year and into 2024 (we expect GDP growth of 1.3% next year).
See detailed data below