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Both services and industrial sectors supported GDP in 3Q23.
2023/11/24 | Julio Ruiz



GDP in 3Q23 rose by 3.3% yoy, in line with our forecast and the flash estimate published by the Statistics Institute (INEGI) and broadly in line with market consensus of 3.2%. Using seasonally adjusted figures GDP expanded 1.1% qoq/sa in 3Q23, a bit better than the flash estimate from INEGI of 0.9%. There were some revisions in the previous quarterly GDP figures. While sequential GDP growth in 2Q23 was revised up by 10-bps, for the 1Q23 it was reduced only slightly, by 0.24-bp. Looking at the breakdown, activity in 3Q23 was supported by both – services (0.9% qoq/sa) and industrial production (1.3%) sectors. The latter was driven mainly by construction (6.8%) reflecting, mainly, the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects, while manufacturing output stood at 0.4%. The qoq/saar of headline GDP stood at 4.3% in 3Q23 (from 3.8% in 2Q23).

 

Our take: Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%, decelerating from 3.9% in 2022. We expect the economy to slow in the last quarter of the year and into next, leading to a 2.0% growth in GDP in 2024, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance which will mitigate a likely softer external demand.