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Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main drags to activity.
2024/01/24 | Julio Ruiz

The monthly GDP (IGAE) increased 2.3% yoy in November, below market consensus of 3.1% (as per Bloomberg), but broadly in line with our forecast of 2.5%. Using calendar adjusted figures, monthly GDP annual growth stood at 2.5%, taking the quarterly annual rate to 3.3% in November (from 3.7% 3Q23). At the margin, the monthly GDP fell by 0.5% mom, dragged by construction (-2.9%) and manufacturing (-0.5%) sectors, while services sector grew at a soft 0.2%. The fall in construction output is associated to the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. The qoq/saar of the monthly GDP slowed to 2.8% in November (from 4.9% in 3Q23), with services sector as the main supporter (3.9%), while manufacturing and construction sectors stood at 2.7% and 0.2%, respectively.
Our take: Today’s figure is consistent with our call of a slower GDP growth expansion in 4Q23, relative to the first three quarters of the year. Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%. For next year, we expect a GDP growth of 2.8% supported by an expansive fiscal stance which will help to mitigate a slower external demand.




Julio Ruiz