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Monthly inflation to rise by double digits in 1Q24.
2024/01/08 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo

Consumer prices rose by 25.5% MoM in December (up from 12.8% in November), below market expectations of 30.0%, according to the Bloomberg survey. Annualized quarterly inflation accelerated to 450.6% in the quarter ended in December, from 259.2% in November. The 12-month inflation reading came in at 211.4%.


The monthly core measure also accelerated led by an overall price adjustment after the currency devaluation. The core index came in at 28.3% MoM (up from 13.4% in the previous month) reflecting the passthrough effect of the devaluation of the currency in mid-December. Thus, the core reading rose by 229.4% YoY in December 2023. Prices for regulated products increased by 20.7% MoM  and 164.9% YoY. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 16.2% MoM (from 12.8% in November) and 179.0% YoY.


We expect inflation will continue at a double digit monthly pace at least during 1Q24 primarily reflecting the pass-through effect of the currency devaluation and the correction of energy, transport, and fuel tariffs, among others.