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We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end.
2023/11/13 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo



Consumer prices rose by 8.3% MoM in October (from 12.7% in September and 12.4% in August), below market expectations of 9.5%, according to the latest central bank survey. Annualized quarterly inflation accelerated to 255.2% in the quarter ended in October, from 229.7% in September. The 12-month inflation reading came in at 142.7%.

 

The monthly core measure also eased. The core index came in at 8.8% MoM (from 13.4% in the previous month). Thus, the annualized reading jumped to 288.6% in the quarter ended in October, from 256.1% in September. Prices for regulated products increased by 6.6% MoM and 122.7% YoY, led by higher communication prices. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 7.6% MoM (from 14.7% in September) and 131.8% YoY.  



We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year-end. In our view, the deceleration of month-over-month inflation is transitory, as we still expect an adjustment of the exchange rate this year, leading to higher inflation ahead. We also still foresee the monetary policy rate at 145% for YE, but we don’t expect changes this week, given the deceleration of inflation and the coming runoff election.