The trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 2.0 billion in August, well above the USD 1.0 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was significantly above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.4 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 13.5 billion in August, from USD 10.5 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 22.1 billion in August, from a surplus of USD 23.0 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in August, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector, after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 18.5% yoy in the quarter ended in August, after a 18.2% gain in 2Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 20.2% yoy in the period (from 22.0% yoy in 2Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 12.9% yoy in the same period, led by metals and cars (up from an increase of 1.3% yoy in 2Q24). On a sequential basis, exports fell by 4.0% qoq/saar in August.
Imports contracted again, amid a weaker currency and soft activity. Total imports fell by 27.5% yoy in the quarter ended in August (from a drop of 30.5% yoy in 2Q24), down by 9.8% qoq/saar in the period. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 30.6% yoy in the period, and imports of capital goods decreased by 30.0% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) decreased 2.6% yoy.
The energy trade surplus increased further in August. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 4.3 billion in August, from a surplus of USD 4.1 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 28.4% yoy in the quarter ended in August, while oil exports rose by 24.3% yoy in the same period.
Our take. We see upside risks to our 2024 trade surplus forecast of USD 15 billion, due to a higher-than-expected surplus amid weaker imports. The rapid improvement in external imbalances reflects the effectiveness of the macro stabilization program.