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We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%,

Consumer prices rose by 11.0% MoM in March (from 13.2% in February), below market expectations of 12.5%, according to the central bank’s survey. Annualized quarterly inflation decelerated to 428.8% during the quarter ended in March, from 761.5% in 

February. The 12-month inflation reading rose to 287.9%, from 276.2% in February.


The monthly core measure fell to one digit in March. The core index rose by 9.4% 

MoM (from 12.3% in the previous month), bringing the year-over-year reading to 300.0% in March 2024, from 291.9% in February. Prices for regulated products increased by 18.1% MoM and 293.4% YoY, led by increases in electricity prices and fuel amid the removal of subsidies. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 11.1% MoM (from 8.7% in the previous month) and 221.2% YoY.



Our Take: The appreciation of the currency and weaker consumption driven by the sharp contraction of real wages contributed to slow the monthly rise of inflation at the margin. We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 180%, with monthly headline inflation projected to fall to one digit in April.


Andrés Pérez M.

Diego Ciongo