The trade balance in March revealed a USD 3.44 billion surplus, above the Bloomberg’s market consensus of a USD 2.85 surplus. As a result, on a 12-month rolling basis, the trade deficit reached USD 4.4 bn, up from USD 5.9 bn in February (USD 8.2 bn deficit in 2024). At the margin, using three-month annualized seasonally adjusted figures, the trade balance improved to a surplus of USD 6.8 bn (from a USD 200 mn deficit). Looking at the breakdown, on a 12-month rolling basis, the oil trade balance deficit continued to run negative (USD 11.5 bn deficit vs USD 7.1 bn surplus for non-oil) following the decline in domestic oil production and the government’s strategy to prioritize domestic oil refineries.
Our view: The better-than-expected result in the trade balance in March shows the strength of external accounts amid tariff threats. The uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s trade relationship with the US will remain a challenge for trade flows. Looking ahead, the performance of oil exports will be influenced by domestic policies towards national sovereignty. Weaker internal demand and a slowdown in construction are likely to limit non-energy consumption and capital imports, particularly for non-residential projects.
See detailed data below.
