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We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%.
13/10/2023



Consumer prices rose by 12.7% MoM in September (from 12.4% in August), above market expectations of 12.0%, according to the latest central bank survey. Annualized quarterly inflation skyrocketed to 229.7% in the quarter ended in September, from 157.7% in August. The 12-month inflation reading came in at 138.3%.

 

The monthly core measure also remains very high. The core index rose by 13.4% MoM (from 13.8% in the previous month). Thus, the annualized reading jumped to 256.1% in the quarter ended in September, from 177.0% in August. Prices for regulated products increased by 8.3% MoM and 124.4% YoY, led by higher energy and fuel prices. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 14.7% MoM (from 10.7% in August) and 134.9% YoY. 




Following the release of September's CPI, the central bank hiked the monetary policy rate (Leliq) to 133% (or 11.1% per month), from 118% (9.83% per month). In the press release, the central bank stated that high frequency indicators show a significant deceleration of inflation in October.

 

 We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%. In our view monthly inflation will continue rising at a double-digit pace at least for the rest of the year affected by a wider spread between the official and the parallel exchange rate amid increasing uncertainties on the outcome of the elections.


Andres Perez



Diego Ciongo