Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) expanded at a strong 29.1% yoy in July, while private consumption grew 4.0%. Adjusting figures for working days, GFI grew at a similar pace, taking the quarterly annual rate to 27.2% (from 22.2% in 2Q23). Using the seasonally adjusted series, GFI increased 0.5% mom/sa, with an improving momentum (qoq/saar of 44.0% in July, from 37.5% in 2Q23). GFI is supported mainly by non-residential construction investment, while both - private and public construction investment are expanding at strong pace. The latter is associated to the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. Likewise, private consumption momentum remains positive. Using calendar adjusted figures, private consumption quarterly annual growth rate stood at 4.1% in July (from 4.3% in 2Q23). While the mom/sa of private consumption was practically null in July, the qoq/saar stood at a positive 3.9% in July (from 4.7% in 2Q23).
Our view: Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.0%, reflecting a strong 1H23. For the rest of the year, we expect activity indicators to continue expanding but at a softer pace relative to the 1H23.
See detailed data below