The trade surplus fell to USD 0.9 billion in June, well below the USD 1.9 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. However, the surplus was somewhat above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.6 billion. The 12-month rolling trade surplus fell USD 11.0 billion in June, down from USD 11.9 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 4.5 billion in June, from a surplus of USD 4.0 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 2Q25. Total exports rose by 1.4% yoy in the period, following a 7.1% gain in 1Q25. Exports of other industrial products rose by 6.9% yoy in the same period, led by ground transportation (down from an increase of 14.2% yoy in 1Q25). On the other hand, agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, dropped by 1.1% yoy in the period (from +1.8% yoy in 1Q25) due to lower commodity prices. On a sequential basis, exports fell by 13.8% qoq/saar in June.
Solid imports, in line with the recovery of activity but also due to base effects. Total imports rose by 34.1% yoy in 2Q25 (from a gain of 35.1% yoy in 1Q25). Imports of capital goods increased by 50.9% yoy in 2Q25, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 109.3% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 9.6% yoy in the period. On a sequential basis, imports fell by 11.8% qoq/saar in June.
The energy trade surplus widened in June. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 6.7 billion in June, above USD 5.8 billion in the previous month. Energy exports rose by 3.4% yoy in 2Q25, while oil imports fell by 37.6% yoy in the same period.
Our take: We forecast a 2025 trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion, with downside risks given imports dynamics, amid the solid recovery of activity and ARS strength. The trade balance figures for July will be published on August 20.