Ir para menu Ir para conteúdo principal Ir para rodapé
GDP growth for 2023 reached -0.6%.
2024/02/15 | Julio Ruiz

The monthly GDP proxy fell by 0.7% YoY in December (after brief expansion of 0.3% in November), below market consensus of +0.4% (as per Bloomberg), but closer to our forecast of -1.2%. The headline figure was dragged by fishing (-51.3%), manufacturing (-10.9%) and construction (-0.8%) sectors, while services and commerce sectors are starting to recover with an annual rate of 2.0% (from 1.3% in November) and 1.7% (from 0.1%), respectively. Mining output continues to expand at a favorable pace of 3.6% YoY in December.  The 4Q23 annual rate of the monthly GDP fell by -0.4% (from -1.0% in 3Q23), with primary and non-primary activity at 1.6% (from 3.4%) and -0.9% (from -2.1%), respectively. GDP growth for 2023 reached -0.6%.


At the margin, momentum remained soft. Using official seasonally adjusted series, the monthly GDP fell by 0.6% mom/sa in December, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to 0.7% in 4Q23 (from 0.2% in 3Q23).



We expect GDP growth to rebound to 2.5% this year, after falling by 0.6% in 2023 affected by social conflicts and harsh weather conditions. A likely moderate/weak El Niño phenomenon will likely curb activity rebound in 1Q24.