The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.9 billion in October, well above the USD 0.4 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was slightly below market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.0 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 16.4 billion in October, down from USD 15.1 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 17.1 billion in October, from a surplus of USD 18.1 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in October, still driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector, after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 21.6% yoy in the period, following a 18.2% gain in 3Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 25.2% yoy in the period (from 20.6% yoy in 3Q24). Exports of other industrial products rose by 18.4% yoy in the same period, led by metals (up from an increase of 11.0% yoy in 3Q24). On a sequential basis, exports rose by 6.3% qoq/saar in October.
Imports expanded in October on an annual basis for the first time since January 2023. Total imports rose by 4.9% yoy in October, but fell by 11.8% yoy in the quarter ended in October (from a drop of 17.9% yoy in 3Q24). However, imports rebounded by 57.8% qoq/saar in the period likely due to the recovery of activity at the margin. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 12.2% yoy in the period, while imports of capital goods decreased by 12.5% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) increased 14.3% yoy.
The energy trade surplus widened further in October. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 5.0 billion in October, from a surplus of USD 4.7 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 48.1% yoy in the quarter ended in October, while oil exports rose by 13.4% yoy in the same period.
Our take. Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023 driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after lower imports amid a weaker currency. For 2025 we still expect a surplus of USD 12 billion driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity.
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