The trade balance showed a surplus of USD 1.8 billion in April, well above the USD 0.2 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was below market expectations according to the central bank survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 2.2 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 0.9 billion in April, from a deficit of USD 1.1 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 17.5 billion in April, from a surplus of USD 15.5 billion in March.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in April, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after last year’s severe drought. Total exports rose by 9.9% yoy in the quarter ended in April, after a 9.5% gain in 1Q24. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 16.8% yoy in the period (from a gain of 17.5% yoy in 1Q24). Exports of other industrial products fell by 9.9% yoy in the same period (from a drop of 9.1% yoy in 1Q24. On a sequential basis, exports rebounded by 58.3% qoq/saar in April.
Imports fell further, amid a weaker currency and soft activity. Total imports fell by 26.9% yoy in the quarter ended in April (from a drop of 24.4% yoy in 1Q24), down 28.8% qoq/saar in the period. Imports of intermediate goods fell by 25.6% yoy in the period, and imports of capital goods and parts decreased by 20.1% yoy, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) decreased 15.8% yoy.
Energy trade surplus widened in April. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 2.3 billion in April, from a surplus of USD 1.7 billion in the previous month and only USD 0.1 billion in 2023. Energy imports plummeted by 66.0% yoy in the quarter ended in April, while oil exports rose by 29.7% yoy in the same period.
Our Take. We expect the trade surplus to continue in the coming months, driven by import compression and the normalization of the agriculture sector. For 2024, we expect a trade surplus of USD 15 billion, from a deficit of USD 6.9 billion in 2023.