The monthly GDP (IGAE) increased 2.5% yoy in April (from 2.7% in March), broadly in line with market consensus of 2.2% (as per Bloomberg). Using calendar-adjusted figures (published by the Statistics Institute), the monthly GDP expanded at stronger pace of 3.6%, taking the quarterly annual rate to 3.4% in April (from 3.5% in 1Q23). Looking at the breakdown (using calendar adjusted figures), the quarterly annual rate of industrial output was 2.1% in April (from 2.3% in 1Q23), while activity in the services sector grew 3.9% (from 4.0%).
Sequentially, monthly GDP posted a solid expansion of 0.8% mom/sa driven by a strong services sector (1.0%).
Momentum remained also resilient, with the quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate (qoq/saar) of the monthly GDP at 3.8% in April (from 3.9% in 1Q23). Services sector has been the main contributor of monthly activity with the qoq/saar at 5.6% in April (from 5.7% in 1Q23), while manufacturing and construction output are at a soft 1.4% (from 1.1%) and -4.3% (from 0.3%), respectively.
Our GDP growth forecast of 2.4% has some upward bias amid resilient activity. Still, we expect GDP growth to soften throughout the rest of the year given a softer U.S. economy.
Julio Ruiz