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We maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023.
2023/08/23 | Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo

Activity contracted by 4.4% yoy in June, below the Bloomberg market estimate of a 3.7% decline.  Activity fell by 0.2% mom/sa in June, falling slightly less than the revised -0.6% in the previous month.  The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) decreased by 4.8% yoy and 9.8% qoq/saar in 2Q23. We estimate a statistical carryover for the rest of the year of -1.9%.

Primary activities plummeted on a year-over-year basis in 2Q23, mainly due to the drought. Primary activities decreased by 30.1% yoy in the period (from a drop of 2.1% in 1Q23), reflecting the weak grain harvest. Manufacturing also contracted, by 1.2% yoy, from an expansion of 2.9% in 1Q23. Services registered a gain of 11.1% yoy in the period, from 2.9% in 1Q23. Construction expanded by 7.4% yoy, from 2.7% in the previous quarter.


At the margin, primary activities posted a sharp contraction, according to our seasonal adjustment. Primary activities decreased by 71.2% qoq/saar in 2Q23, from a loss of 8.5% qoq/saar in 1Q23. The Manufacturing sector expanded by a modest 0.1% qoq/saar, from a gain of 5.1% in 1Q23. The service sector posted rose by 33.3% qoq/saar, from 5.5% qoq/saar in 1Q23. The construction sector increased by 24.4% qoq/saar in 2Q23, from a gain of 13.5% in 1Q23.


Even though activity was somewhat weaker in June, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023.