Activity fell sequentially in March, after five consecutive monthly gains. According to the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy), economic activity contracted by 1.8% MoM/SA in March, following a 0.7% MoM/SA growth in February. Thus, activity expanded by 1.5% QoQ/SA in March, after growing 2.6% QoQ/SA in the previous month. On an annual basis, activity rose by 5.6% in March and by 6.1% in 1Q25 (+2.1% yoy in 4Q24). The statistical carryover for 2025 stood at 4.5%.
All sectors rose on an annual basis in 1Q25. Primary activities rose by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter (vs.+5.5% YoY in 4Q24), while manufacturing expanded by 5.1% YoY in the same period (vs. a gain of 0.7% YoY in 4Q24). Services (including the commerce sector) rose by 2.3% YoY in the period (vs. -0.4% in 4Q24), likely supported by the recovery of real wages. Construction rose by 4.9% YoY in the period (from -12.4% YoY in 4Q24) due to a base effect amid the freezing of public works in the same period of 2024.
Our take: We recently revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 5.2% (from 4.5% in our previous scenario), mainly due to a high statistical carryover. Weaker than expected data during March is projected to be transitory.