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Construction is still the main driver of industrial production.
2023/12/12 | Julio Ruiz



Industrial production (IP) grew 5.5% YoY in October, broadly in line with our forecast of 5.6%, but above market expectations of 4.1% (as per Bloomberg). The annual figure was supported, in part, by a favorable calendar base effect. In fact, the calendar adjusted figure stood at 5.2% YoY, taking the quarterly annual rate of industrial production to 4.7% in October (from 4.5% in 3Q23). At the margin, IP expanded 0.6% mom/sa in October, driven by construction (4.7%), while manufacturing fell by 0.4%. The strong growth in construction is likely still reflecting the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. Sequentially, IP rose by 4.5% qoq/saar in October (from 6.0% in 3Q23) supported mainly by construction (15.9%), while manufacturing rose by less at 1.8%. 

 

Our take:  Our GDP growth forecast stands at 3.4% for 2023. We expect sequential GDP growth to expand in the last quarter of the year but at slower pace than the first three quarters of 2023. The large fiscal stance next year will likely continue supporting activity next year.

 

See detailed data below