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Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023
24/10/2023


According to the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy), activity rose by 0.3% yoy in August, better than the Bloomberg market estimate of a 2.2% drop. Activity rose by 1.3% mom/sa in August, following a 2.5% expansion in July. The EMAE decreased by 2.0% yoy in the quarter ended in August, but rose by 2.2% qoq/saar.


 

 Mixed results across sectors in the quarter ended in August. Primary activities fell by 14.1% yoy in the quarter ended in August, still affected by a severe drought (-30.1% yoy in 2Q23), while manufacturing contracted by 4.2% yoy in the period (-1.2% yoy in 2Q23). On the other hand, construction expanded by 7.8% yoy, up from 7.4% in the previous quarter, while services registered a gain of 5.2% yoy in the period, marking a deceleration from the 11.1% gain posted in 2Q23.




Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals.

 

Andrés Pérez M.

Diego Ciongo