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Still, monthly GDP momentum remains positive.
2023/12/22 | Julio Ruiz



The monthly GDP (IGAE) increased 4.2% yoy in October, above market consensus of 3.9% (as per Bloomberg), but below our forecast of 4.5%.  The headline figure was driven, in part, by a favorable calendar base effect. In fact, using calendar adjusted figures, monthly GDP annual growth stood at 3.5%, taking the quarterly annual rate to 3.7% in October (practically unchanged from 3Q23). At the margin, monthly GDP weakened, falling by 0.1% mom/sa, dragged by services (-0.5% mom/sa) and manufacturing (-0.4%) sectors, while construction output grew at a solid pace of 4.7%. Still, headline activity momentum remained positive as reflected by a qoq/saar of 4.8% in October (from 5.4% in 3Q23) supported by construction (15.9%) and services (4.1%) sectors. The qoq/saar of manufacturing output stood at a soft 1.8% in October.

 

Our take: Today’s figure is consistent with our call of a slower GDP growth expansion in 4Q23, relative to the first three quarters of the year. Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%. For next year, we expect a GDP growth of 2.8% supported by an expansive fiscal stance which will help to mitigate a slower external demand.

 

See detailed data below