Headline CPI increased 0.89% mom in January, broadly in line with our forecast of 0.93% and market consensus of 0.88% (as per Bloomberg). Fruits & vegetables prices (9.53% mom) remained a relevant upward pressure in the non-core index, while gas lp prices also exerted upward pressure (2.41%). Core inflation stood at 0.40% mom, compared to our forecast of 0.35% and market consensus of 0.36%, with restaurants remaining a relevant upward pressure. Annual headline inflation rebounded to 4.88% in January (from 4.66% in December), reflecting pressure from the non-core index, while core annual inflation fell to 4.76% (from 5.09%). At the margin, the seasonally adjusted three-month annualized headline inflation stood at 7.32% in January (from 6.24% in December), while core inflation eased to 4.60% (from 4.86%).
Our take: In our view, today’s figure is consistent with the central bank keeping its policy rate unchanged in the policy meeting later today. Headline inflation, affected mainly by the non-core rebound, will likely miss Banxico’s 1Q24 forecast of 4.3%. Thus, we will likely see, an increase in Banxico’s headline inflation forecast in today’s monetary policy statement. Our end of year inflation and policy rate forecast stands at 4.2% and 9.50%, respectively.
See detailed data below
