According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.54% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in April, slightly lower than Bloomberg’s market consensus of 2.59% but in line with our forecast. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate was 2.59% in April, down slightly from 2.62% in March and 2.66% a year ago. This decrease is mainly attributed to lower unemployment among people with fewer years of schooling and no work experience.
Compared to last year, the number of employed increased by 88k in April, with a contraction of 29k in the formal sector and an increase of 117k in the informal sector. This figure was affected by seasonal distortions due to different Easter holiday dates compared to 2024 (2Q25 vs.1Q24). The labor participation rate stood at 59.4%, below last year’s 60.5% and similar to the pre-pandemic average for the same month, which was 59.5%. April’s informality rate remains low at 54.7% (compared to 54.6% in March) and continues to fluctuate on a downward trend. The real wage bill decreased by 0.7% YoY due to a 5.0% YoY contraction in the number of employed people, despite higher real wages during the month (+4.5% YoY).
Our view: Looking ahead, we anticipate that job creation will continue to decelerate, driven by the slowdown in economic activity. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to an average of 3.0% this year, compared to 2.7% in 2024. Additionally, real wage growth is expected to remain positive, partially supporting private consumption. However, there are risks of a swifter deterioration, considering lingering effects of global trade policy uncertainty.
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