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Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7% has an upward bias.
2023/07/31 | Julio Ruiz



The 2Q23 GDP flash estimate, published by Mexico’s statistics institute (INEGI), came in at 3.7% yoy (practically unchanged from the previous quarter), above market expectations of 3.3% (as per Bloomberg) and slightly above our 3.6% forecast. According to calendar & seasonally adjusted data reported by the statistics institute (INEGI), GDP in 2Q23 grew at a similar pace to the unadjusted series (3.6%). Looking at the breakdown, also using calendar & seasonally adjusted data, GDP expansion was driven mainly by the services sector which stood at 4.1% yoy in 2Q23 (from 4.3% in 1Q23), while the industrial and primary sectors stood at 2.6% (from 2.5%) and 2.5% (from 2.3%), respectively.  

 

Sequential activity was also resilient in 2Q23. Using seasonally adjusted figures, GDP expanded 0.9% qoq in 2Q23, after growing at an also solid 1.0% in the previous quarter. GDP in the first semester was supported by the services sector, which expanded 1.0% qoq/sa in 2Q23 (from 1.5% in 1Q23), while industrial production grew 0.8% (from 0.6%) likely reflecting a rebound in construction output but curbed by a slower expansion in the manufacturing sector.

 



The flash print puts an upward bias to our GDP growth forecast for this year of 2.7%.  Still, we expect activity to soften in the 2H23 given our call of an expected slowdown in the U.S. economy and amid a tight monetary policy stance.