The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.2 billion in April, well below the USD 1.8 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was well below market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.0 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 14.2 billion in April, down from USD 16.0 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 3.4 billion in April, from a surplus of USD 6.3 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in April. Total exports rose by 4.8% yoy in the period, following a 7.1% gain in 1Q25. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, expanded by 1.2% yoy in the period (from 1.0% yoy in 1Q25). Exports of other industrial products rose by 11.2% yoy in the same period, led by ground transportation (down from an increase of 14.9% yoy in 1Q25). On a sequential basis, exports fell by 11.8% qoq/saar in April.
Solid imports, in line with the recovery of activity and a stronger currency. Total imports rose by 39.4% yoy in the quarter ended in April (from a gain of 35.1% yoy in 1Q25) and by 41.0% qoq/saar in April. Imports of capital goods increased by 50.4% yoy in the quarter ended in April, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 90.3% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 9.5% yoy in the period.
The energy trade surplus narrowed in April. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 5.7 billion in April, slightly below USD 5.8 billion in the previous month. Energy imports rose by 15.3% yoy in April, while oil exports fell by 10.0% yoy in the same period.
Our take: For 2025 we see downside risks to our trade surplus forecast of USD 12.0 billion, due to higher-than-expected imports, which is consistent with a recovery in economic activity and a stronger currency.