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We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in the coming months.
2023/12/13 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo



Consumer prices rose by 12.8% MoM in November (from 8.3% in October), above market expectations of 11.5%, according to the central bank’s survey. Annualized quarterly inflation accelerated to 259.2% in the quarter ended in November, from 255.2% in October. The 12-month inflation reading came in at 160.9%.

 

The monthly core measure also accelerated. The core index came in at 13.4% MoM (from 8.8% in the previous month) led by food and non-alcoholic beverages. Thus, the annualized reading stood at 283.2% in the quarter ended in November. Prices for regulated products increased by 10.1% MoM (the highest monthly figure year-to-date) and 130.8% YoY, led by higher medical and communication prices. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 12.8% MoM (from 7.6% in October) and 151.2% YoY.



We expect a significant acceleration of inflation in the coming months. In our view, the liberalization of repressed prices and announced measures of the recent stabilization plan will lead to higher inflation in the near term, reflecting the pass-through effect of the recent devaluation of the currency and the correction of energy, transport, fuel tariffs, among others. Our estimation for 2023 stands at 200% with risks tilted to the upside. For 2024 we now expect 200% inflation by year end, but with a likely peak in the first half of the year.