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Industrial production momentum remained soft.
2024/06/11 | Julio Ruiz

Industrial production (IP) increased 5.1% YoY above market consensus of 4.2% (as per Bloomberg), but below our call of 5.9%. The annual figure was supported by a favorable calendar base effect (Easter Holidays). In fact, the calendar adjusted figure stood at a soft 0.4% YoY, taking the quarterly annual rate to 1.3% in April (from 1.7% in 1Q24). At the margin, IP softened, falling by 0.5% MoM/SA in April, dragged by a weak manufacturing output (-1.5%) which was mitigated by a resilient construction sector (1.8%). Industrial production momentum remained soft (although improving), with the qoq/saar at -0.7% in April (from -2.7% in 1Q24).


Our take:  Weakness in the manufacturing sector, despite resilient U.S. activity, could be explained by a stronger currency at the time. However, it could see some improvement considering persistent weakness in the currency. On the other hand, construction sector is likely to lose steam in the 2H24 as fiscal spending softens amid the transition of administrations. All in all, our GDP growth estimate stands at 2.3% for 2024, but with a slight downside bias.


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