The monthly GDP proxy increased 5.0% YoY in May (from 5.3% in April), above both – our forecast and market consensus of 4.4% (as per Bloomberg). This is the second consecutive upside surprise (vs market consensus). The headline figure was driven mainly by fishing output which grew at strong 329.2% YoY in May (from 158.4% in April) which in turn boosted primary manufacturing (76.54%). On the non-primary sector, construction output expanded 5.5% YoY in May (from 7.0% in April), while commerce and services sectors stood at 2.1% (from 3.1%) and 3.3% (from 2.9%), respectively. Momentum improved further in May, with the quarterly annual rate at 3.4% in May (from 1.4% in 1Q24), supported mainly by primary activity (8.3%). Using official seasonally adjusted series, the monthly GDP increased 0.1% MoM/SA in May, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to 1.7% in May (from 0.5% in 1Q24).
Our take: We recently changed our GDP growth forecast to 3.1% for 2024, reflecting the improvement in activity indicators for the 2Q24. Positive terms of trade and a weak La Niña phenomenon should support activity recovery during the rest of the year.