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Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion.
2023/11/03 | Julio Ruiz

Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) expanded at a strong 32.0% yoy in August, while private consumption grew 4.1%. Adjusting for working days, GFI grew at a similar pace, taking the quarterly annual rate to 30.1% (from 22.2% in 2Q23). Using the seasonally adjusted series, GFI increased also at a strong 3.1% mom/sa, with a solid momentum (qoq/saar of 42.7% in August, from 38.9% in 2Q23). GFI is supported mainly by non-residential construction investment, while both - private and public construction investment are expanding at strong pace. The latter is associated to the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. In turn, private consumption momentum remains positive, although moderated at the margin. Using calendar adjusted figures, private consumption quarterly annual growth rate stood at 4.1% in August (from 4.3% in 2Q23). At the margin, private consumption expanded 0.5% mom/sa, taking the qoq/saar to 3.4% in August (4.7% in 2Q23). 


Our view: Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 of 3.0% has an upward bias given better than expected activity in 3Q23. We expect activity to continue expanding in the last quarter of the year, although at a slower pace than previous quarters. Persistently stronger than expected activity this year, an expansionary fiscal stance for 2024, and uncertainty regarding monetary policy in the US suggest the beginning of the easing cycle in Mexico may be pushed beyond 1Q24.


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Julio Ruiz