Consumer prices rose by 13.2% MoM in February (from 20.6% in January and 25.5% in December), below market expectations of 15.0%, according to the central bank’s survey. Annualized quarterly inflation accelerated to 761.5% during the quarter ended in February, from 746.7% in the previous month. The 12-month inflation reading rose to 276.2%, from 254.2% in January.
The monthly core measure also decelerated in February. The core index fell to 12.3% MoM (from 20.2% in the previous month), bringing the year-over-year reading to 291.9% in February 2024, from 275.9% in January. Prices for regulated products increased by 21.1% MoM and 260.7% YoY, led by increases in transportation and electricity prices amid the removal of subsidies. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 8.7% MoM (from 16.2% in the previous month) and 216.0% YoY.
Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks, despite the lower-than-expected February print. We envisage monthly inflation to remain in the double digits until at least 2Q24, reflecting price corrections for energy, transportation and fuel, among others.