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Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%.
2023/11/22 | Julio Ruiz



Retail sales rose by 2.3% yoy in September, below our forecast of 2.9% and consensus (3.7% as per Bloomberg). The calendar adjusted quarterly annual rate of retail sales rose to 3.6% in 3Q23 (from 4.1% in 2Q23). Also using calendar adjusted figures, the real wage bill, the key determinant of private consumption, rose at a solid quarterly annual rate of 9.6% yoy 3Q23 (from 9.4% in 2Q23), with formal employment growing 3.6% (from 3.9%), while nominal wages increased 10.7% (from 11.3%). The real wage bill is also supported by lower inflation. Real consumption credit from commercial banks continues to expand at a strong pace (13.0% yoy in 3Q23), while remittances converted to pesos fell by 8.1% yoy, dragged by the appreciated currency. At the margin, retail sales weakened in September, falling by 0.2% mom/sa, taking the qoq/saar to 3.7% in 3Q23 (from 5.2% in 2Q23).

Our take: Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at 3.4%, down from 3.9% in 2022. We expect the economy to decelerate in the last quarter of the year and into next, leading to a 2.0% growth in GDP in 2024, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance which will mitigate a likely softer external demand.

See detailed data below