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The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%
2023/12/15 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo



GDP fell in 3Q23 by 0.8% yoy, in line with data anticipated by the monthly GDP proxy (EMAE) and following the drought-driven contraction of 5.0% in the previous quarter. On a sequential basis, GDP rose 2.7% QoQ/SA, following a contraction in 2Q23 (-2.7% QoQ/SA). 
 

 

Final domestic demand rose by 0.5% QoQ/SA in 3Q23. Private consumption rose by 0.7% QoQ/SA, while public consumption fell by 2.0%. Fixed investment rose sequentially by 1.7% in the quarter. On an annual basis, domestic demand (excluding inventories) rose by 0.6% yoy, reflecting a 0.3% yoy increase in private consumption and a gain of 1.8% in public consumption. Gross fixed investment rose by 0.8% in the period. Regarding external demand, exports decreased by 4.8% yoy, still affected by a severe drought, while imports rose by 2.6% yoy.

 

 

As a result of better-than-anticipated activity data in 3Q23, our 2023 GDP growth forecast of -3.0% now has an upward bias, that is pointing to a smaller annual contraction in 2023. The contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in 2024 with a decline of 2.5%, despite favorable drought-related base effects, as the ambitious stabilization plan addresses Argentina’s severe macro-financial imbalances.