Activity contracted by 1.3% yoy in July, outperforming the Bloomberg market estimate of a 3.8% drop. Activity rose by 2.4% mom/sa in July, interrupting a string of four consecutive declines. The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) decreased by 3.8% yoy during the quarter ended in July and 5.9% qoq/saar.
Mixed results across sectors for the quarter ended in July. Primary activities plummeted by 25.9% yoy during the quarter ended in July, affected by the severe drought (-30.1% yoy in 2Q23), while manufacturing contracted by 3.3% yoy in the period (-1.2% yoy in 2Q23). On the other hand, construction expanded by 9.2% yoy, up from 7.4% in the previous quarter, while services registered a gain of 8.5% yoy in the period, marking a deceleration from the 11.1% gain posted in 2Q23.
Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.