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We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23.
2023/11/22 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo



According to the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy), activity remained flat sequentially in September, following a 1.2% MoM SA expansion in August. Thus, the EMAE rebounded by 2.9% qoq/sa in 3Q23, after falling 2.6% in the previous quarter, amid a severe drought. On a year-on-year basis, activity fell 0.7% in September (in line with the Bloomberg market estimate) and dropped 0.6% in 3Q23 (-4.9% yoy in 2Q23).
 

 

Mixed results across sectors in 3Q23. Primary activities fell by 2.2% yoy in 3Q23, leaving behind the significant effects of the drought (-30.1% yoy in 2Q23), while manufacturing contracted by 3.8% yoy in the period (-1.2% yoy in 2Q23). On the other hand, construction expanded by 5.5% yoy, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, while services registered a gain of 2.2% yoy in the period, marking a deceleration from the 11.1% gain posted in 2Q23. 

 

 

We see upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of -3.0% for this year mostly due to a better-than-expected rebound in 3Q23. While tighter import controls and a likely drop in real wages (amid a sharp acceleration of inflation) will affect activity in 4Q23, a fiscal package announced after the primary election may partially offset these effects.