Manufacturing rose in April. The IPI manufacturing index increased by 2.2% mom/sa in April, after falling by 3.9% mom/sa in March. However, industry output fell by 2.9% qoq/sa in the quarter ending in April, following a 2.5% contraction in 1Q25. On an annual basis, manufacturing rose by 8.5% in April, and by 6.4% in the quarter ended in that month. All sectors grew in April on an annual basis. According to the INDEC survey, 30.4% of companies expect an annual increase in internal demand over the next three months, 27.7% expect a decline and 41.9% foresee no changes.
Construction also increased in April. The construction index rose by 5.1% mom/sa in April, after falling 3.6% mom/sa in the previous month. Additionally, construction rose by 1.8% qoq/sa in the quarter ended in April (2.6% qoq/sa in 1Q25). Construction activity increased by 25.9% yoy in April and by 14.9% yoy in the quarter ended in that month. Employment in the sector increased by 1.5% relative to March 2024 (figures have a one-month lag). According to a qualitative survey, 67.6% of those involved in private construction expect no changes in activity levels over the next three months. Meanwhile, 14.8% expect an increase and 17.6% anticipate a decline. Among companies primarily engaged in public works, 20.6% anticipate a decrease in activity levels during the next three months, while 59.8% expect no change and 19.6% expect an increase.
Our take: The sequential rebound in manufacturing and construction in April was in line with our expectations. Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 5.2%.