Real GDP increased by 4.2% YoY in 4Q24, above our call (3.8%) and market consensus (3.5%). On a sequential basis, real GDP grew at 3.2% QoQ SA ann. in 4Q24, decelerating from the 5% QoQ SA ann. in 3Q24.
Activity was driven by private consumption and investment in the final quarter. Private consumption grew 4% YoY in 4Q24, up from the previous quarter due to the recovery of real income (3Q24: 3.5% YoY). Private gross fixed investment grew 5%, led by the execution of residential and non-residential projects; as well as the acquisition of machinery and equipment (3Q24: 4.6% YoY). Public consumption fell 0.5% YoY in 4Q24, (3Q24: 4.1% YoY). Thus, domestic demand advanced 6.5% in 4Q24. Exports rose by 5.8% while imports increased 13%, highlighting capital goods imports due to expectations of a recovery in private investment.
Overall, GDP grew 3.3% in 2024, above our call and BCRP forecast (3.2%). After December data, the carryover for 2025 stands at 1.5%.
Our take: We expect the activity momentum to slow in the coming quarters. Activity continued to perform favourably. We forecast GDP growth of 2.8% for this year with risks tilted to the upside. Mining and infrastructure projects are expected to support growth on the supply side, while the recovery in real income and employment, as well as lower borrowing costs, are likely to support private consumption. Strikes related to security concerns and high political uncertainty could pose transitory headwinds to confidence and activity.
