The trade deficit came in at USD 0.9 billion in March, widening USD 0.2 billion over one year. The trade deficit was broadly in line with market expectations. During the 1Q25, the trade deficit reached USD 3.4 billion (USD 3.3 billion in 4Q24). As a result, the rolling 12-month trade deficit reached USD 11.7 billion, above from the USD 10.8 billion deficit recorded in 2024 (USD 9.7 billion in 2023). In March, total imports (FOB) increased by 15.9% yoy (+9.8% in February), boosted by durable goods for consumption, manufacturing and agricultural imports, while exports rose 12.2% yoy in March (-0.8% in February), lifted by coffee exports but dragged by commodities. At the margin, our seasonal adjustment shows the trade deficit in the quarter set at USD 11.6 billion (annualized; USD 12.3 billion in 4Q24).
Imports increase at a double-digit rate in 1Q25. During 1Q25, imports increased by 11% yoy (+7.7% yoy in 4Q24). Capital goods for agriculture (+43.5% yoy), durable goods for consumption (+28% yoy) and fuels (+20.9% yoy) boosted the print. Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment rose by 13.5% yoy (+12.8 yoy in 4Q24). Nevertheless, at the margin, we estimate that imports fell 5.3% qoq/saar (+24.5% in 4Q24). During 1Q25, imports from the US accounted for 24.5% of the total (25.7% in 2024).
Commodities continue to drag exports, while coffee dynamics remain upbeat. During the 1Q25, exports increased 5.3% yoy (+0.9% yoy in 4Q24). Coffee (doubling over one year), agricultural exports (+37% yoy) and non-traditional exports (+16% yoy) boosted export dynamics. Countering export gains were the large decline in coal sales (-43% yoy) and oil exports (-5.4%). At the margin, exports fell by 1.9% qoq/saar during the first quarter of the year (+8.4% in 4Q24). The US accounted for 30% of total exports during 1Q25 (29% in 2024).
