2026/06/23 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
Real retail sales rose 4.4% YoY in April, above consensus (3.6%) and the previous month (2.9%). In seasonally adjusted terms, sales increased 0.8% MoM, also exceeding both expectations (0.1%) and March’s print (0.2%). Sequentially, 5 out of 9 subsectors expanded, led by leisure (+5.2%), hardware and glass items (+1.9%), and food and beverages (+1.2%), while internet sales (-0.8%) and healthcare items (-2.4%) lagged. Underlying consumption fundamentals remain supportive, with the real wage bill up 5.9% YoY and real consumer credit growing 7.0% YoY as of April.
Our take: The data—based on a revenue survey—helps explain the divergence with IGAE (a value-added measure). April points to a positive start to 2Q, with QoQ/SAAR growth around 0.3% and a 2026 carry-over of 2.8%. We expect this momentum to persist in the short term, supported by domestic demand and a modest tailwind from the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
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