Aggregate supply and demand grew 2.7% yoy in 3Q23, below both - our forecast and market consensus of 3.8% (as per Bloomberg). At the margin, using seasonally adjusted figures, aggregate supply and demand registered a practically null expansion sequentially in 3Q23, dragged by weak exports of goods & services (-3.5% qoq/sa), while imports of goods & services stood at -2.3%. On the other hand, domestic demand grew at solid 1.9% qoq/sa in 3Q23 (2.1% in 2Q23), driven by gross fixed investment which rose by 4.4% (6.9% in 2Q23). Within gross fixed investment, both private (4.3%) and public (5.4%) gross fixed investment grew at a strong pace, with the latter reflecting the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. In turn, private consumption expanded at a decent 1.2% qoq/sa in 3Q23, while public consumption stood at 0.5%. Final private demand stood at 1.9% qoq/sa in 3Q23, while public demand stood at 1.4%.
Our take: Our GDP growth forecast stands at 3.4% for 2023. We expect sequential GDP growth to expand in the last quarter of the year but at slower pace than the first three quarters of 2023. The large fiscal stance next year will likely continue supporting activity next year
See detailed data below
