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We expect GDP growth of 2.7% this year.
2024/06/17 | Julio Ruiz

The monthly GDP proxy increased 5.3% YoY in April, above market consensus of 2.2% (as per Bloomberg).  We note the monthly activity figure was partly boosted by a favorable calendar base effect due to Easter Holidays. Looking at the breakdown, fishing output (158.4% YoY in April), agriculture (23.7%), manufacturing production (11.43%) and construction output (7.02%) were the main supporters of the headline figure. Commerce and services sectors stood at 3.08% YoY and 3.4% in April, respectively. Momentum improved in April, with the quarterly annual rate at 2.7% in April (from 1.4% in 1Q24), supported mainly by primary activity (5.0%). Using official seasonally adjusted series, the monthly GDP increased at a strong 1.7% MoM/SA in April, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to 1.1% in April (from 0.5% in 1Q24).


Our take:  Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 2.7%. We expect the recovery to firm throughout the rest of the year, supported by positive terms of trade and strong growth in Peru’s main trading partners. For next year, we estimate GDP growth of 3.0%.