GDP fell in 2Q23 by 4.9% yoy, in line with data anticipated by the monthly GDP proxy (EMAE) following an expansion of 1.4% in the previous quarter. On a sequential basis, GDP dropped 2.8% QoQ/SA, following a temporary rebound in1Q23 (+0.9% QoQ/SA). GDP on a rolling four-quarter basis decelerated to 0.8% from 3.9% in 1Q23.
Final domestic demand fell by 0.1% QoQ/SA in 2Q23 down from 1.5% in 1Q23. Private consumption fell by 1.3% QoQ/SA, while public consumption rose a mere 0.4%. Fixed investment increased by 3.8% in the quarter. On an annual basis, domestic demand (excluding inventories) rose by 0.7% yoy, reflecting a 0.8% yoy increase in private consumption and a gain of 2.6% in public consumption. Gross fixed investment fell by 1.1% in the period. Regarding external demand, exports decreased by 10.9% yoy, affected by a severe drought, while imports rose by 4.3% yoy.
We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals.