According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.69% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in June, below Bloomberg’s market consensus of 2.80% and in line with our forecast. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate was 2.63% in June, down from 2.71% in May and 2.72% a year ago. The decrease was mainly driven by the younger and older share of the population, as well as those with fewer years of schooling.
Compared to last year, the number of employed individuals increased by 1.2 million in June, with growth coming from the informal sector. The labor participation rate stood at 59.8%, the same as last year, but lower than the pre-pandemic average for the same month, which was 60.2%. June’s informality rate slightly increased from the previous year, rising to 54.8% from 53.8% but it continues to trend downward. Regarding wages, the real wage bill rose by 4.3% YoY due to a 3.5% YoY contraction in the number of employed people and higher real wages during the month (+8.1% YoY).
Our view: Looking ahead, we anticipate that job creation will continue to decelerate, driven by the slowdown in economic activity, in the context of elevated trade-related policy uncertainty. We forecast an average unemployment rate this year of 2.9%, slightly above the 2.7% of 2024. Real wage growth is expected to remain positive, partially supporting private consumption. Global trade policy uncertainty is likely to limit labor demand.
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