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Core inflation is now within the target range of 2+/1%.
2024/01/02 | Julio Ruiz

CPI expanded 0.41% mom in December (from 0.79% a year ago), below our 0.51% forecast, but above market consensus of 0.31% (as per Bloomberg). Looking at the breakdown, the main contributors to the monthly print were food and nonalcoholic beverages (contribution of 19 bps) and transportation (14 bps). Core inflation (excluding energy and food items) was also well behaved in December, rising by 0.36% mom (from 0.54% a year ago). On an annual basis, headline inflation fell to 3.24% in December (from 3.64% in November), while core inflation stood at a low 2.90% (from 3.09%).



At the margin, headline and core inflation were also well-behaved. The seasonally adjusted three-month annualized CPI came in at -0.09% in December (from -0.21% in November), while core inflation stood at 2.29% (from 2.35%). 



We expect annual inflation to gradually fall further, reaching 2.8% by the end of 2024.  In this context and amid weak activity, we expect the central bank to continue easing monetary policy (with 25-bp rate cuts) in 1H24, from the current 6.75% down to 5% by July-2024, and staying at that level through yearend.


Julio Ruiz