Aggregate supply and demand grew 5.4% yoy in 1Q22 (from 4.1% in 4Q22), above our forecast of 3.8% and market consensus of 4.2% (as per Bloomberg). Aggregate supply and demand grew at the same pace using calendar adjusted figures, with imports of goods and services and GDP growth at 9.6% yoy in 1Q23 (from 5.5% in 4Q22) and 3.7% (from 3.5%), respectively. Domestic demand grew 5.2% yoy in 1Q23 (from 4.7% in 4Q22), while exports of goods and services fell by 1.4% (from -0.1%). Within domestic demand, final private demand growth stood at 5.6% (from 4.9%), with private consumption at a resilient growth of 4.8% (from 4.5%) and private investment at 9.1% (from 6.8%). In turn, final public demand growth stood at 2.4% (from 3.8%), curbed by government consumption (0.7%, from 1.9%).
At the margin, domestic demand expanded at a strong 1.9% qoq/sa in 1Q23 (from 1.1% in 4Q22), driven by final private demand (2.4%, from 1.1%).
Within private demand, consumption and investment stood at a strong 2.2% qoq/sa in 1Q23 (from 0.7% in 4Q22) and 3.3% (from 2.5%), respectively. In contrast, final public demand deteriorated sequentially to -0.3% (from 1.0%), dragged by both public investment (-0.1%, from 8.7%) and consumption (-0.4%, from -0.5%).
Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 2.4%. After a solid GDP expansion in 1Q23, we expect activity to slowdown during the rest of the year dragged by a softer expansion in the U.S.