According to the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella’s monthly survey, confidence in the government fell by 3.7% mom to 46.6% in April, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. As a result, confidence in the government is 18.5% below the peak when the government took office in December 2023. Importantly, the survey was conducted between April 3 and April 11, before the government lifted restrictions on the currency (April 11, see our note).
All components fell in April: The “ability to solve the country’s problems” fell by 3.0% MoM, the “honesty of public officials” contracted by 1.5% MoM, “general evaluation of the government” dropped by 4.9% MoM. The rating for “efficiency in the management of public expenditure‘ decreased by 0.2% MoM and the “concern for the general interest” contracted by 9.7% mom. Despite the decline in several sub-indices, even more respondents expect an improvement in the economic outlook.
Our take: Despite the negative trend, confidence in Milei’s government remains high. Maintaining a high approval is key for the administration, with midterm elections looming towards the end of October. The next government confidence report will be released on May 26 and will be important to monitor respondents' assessment of the release of the so-called "cepo" with a focus on the ability to purchase foreign currency for savings through the official exchange rate. The gradual decline in government confidence also coincides with the recent acceleration in monthly inflation, which is likely to moderate in April.