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Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downside bias.
2023/11/16 | Julio Ruiz



The monthly GDP proxy fell by 1.3% yoy in September (from -0.6% in August), below our forecast of +0.1% and market expectations of -0.6% (as per Bloomberg), marking the third consecutive negative surprise. The statistics institute statement noted that effects related to the el Niño phenomenon disrupted agriculture (-8.8% yoy in September), construction (-9.4%) and manufacturing (-9.3%) sectors. While services grew at a soft pace of 0.3% yoy in September, mining output was strong, rising by 8.8% yoy, while fishing output grew 16.9%. The 3Q23 annual rate of monthly GDP fell by 1.1% (from -0.5% in 2Q23), with primary and non-primary activity at 3.4% (from 1.4%) and –2.0% (from -1.1%), respectively. 
 

 

At the margin, activity practically registered a null expansion, with a weak momentum. Using official seasonally adjusted series, the monthly GDP fell by 0.03% mom/sa in September, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to a weak -0.2% in 3Q23 (from -0.3% in the previous quarter).

 

 

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downward bias given a weaker than expected 3Q23.  

Activity will likely recover in 4Q23, although at a moderate pace. Authorities expect a moderate/strong el Niño scenario for 1Q24 which will likely slow the expected recovery, resulting in a 3.0% growth rate for the year.