Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) expanded 19.2% yoy in November (vs. market consensus of 19.8%), while private consumption rose by 5.6% (vs. market consensus of 4.8%). Adjusting for working days, GFI grew at a similar pace, taking the quarterly annual rate to 22.2% in November (from 26.1% in 3Q23). Using the seasonally adjusted series, GFI fell by 1.3% mom/sa in November, dragged by construction investment. The qoq/saar of GFI stood at 2.4% in November (down from 19.7% in 3Q23), with construction investment losing momentum (qoq/saar of -3.6% in November), while machinery & equipment (qoq/saar of 10.8% in November) continued to expand at a solid pace, suggests positive signs from nearshoring. The drag in public construction is associated to the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects. Using calendar adjusted figures, private consumption’s quarterly annual growth rate stood at 5.1% in November (from 4.6% 3Q23). At the margin, private consumption expanded 0.7% mom/sa, with momentum remaining positive (qoq/saar of 6.0% in November, practically unchanged from 3Q23).
Our view: Softer than expected activity in the last quarter of 2023 place a downside bias to our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 3.4%. Next year, we expect activity to continue to grow at an above trend growth of 2.8% supported by an expansive fiscal stance. Benefits from nearshoring may also support activity this year.
See detailed data below
